Orange Juiced

From rotoworld.com: "CBS Sports' Jon Heyman hears that the asking price for left-hander Cliff Lee is "extremely high." "[Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is] telling people it'll take you three or four best prospects, plus you'd have to take all the money," a competing executive told CBS Sports on Monday. Lee, 34, is owed $25 million in 2014, another $25 million in 2015, and he carries a $27.5 million vesting option (or a $12.5 million buyout) for 2016. He seems likely to ultimately stay put in Philadelphia." Yeah for that, no thanks. I like Lee a lot, but that's WAY too much. Let Philly keep him and miss the playoffs by 8 games.

Ah, I didn't know that about Brentz.

The Tigers, Rays, Orioles, and Rangers would all be very tough match ups for the Sox. Each team has its own strengths. The Sox would have to play very well to knock any of them out.

Ranaudo, Brentz, Britton, and Middlebrooks for Lee and Michael Young (though I don't want Young...it frees him from Philly's payroll for the rest of the year). Middlebrooks becomes Philly's 3b for the future. Ranaudo and Britton help their pitching staff. Brentz is a decent RH power bat in the OF. The Sox get a 3b who will put up much better numbers than Iglesias will and a bona-fide ace SP. (But I'm already on record as thinking that the Sox will not get Lee)

Yeah, there seems to be no good reason at all why the Sox wouldn't have at least a semi-serious interest in Wilson. Would cost no prospects, proven, championship-caliber closer, loves the Red Sox, they need bullpen help in a big way. Makes too much sense for them to simply pass.

Unless that suspension frees the Yankees up from the contract.

The normal curve for the vast majority of players in MLB history is a decline in the 33-35 year old range, steepening as it nears 40. It is the rare, rare bird that continues to play at a high level at that point. (Note: I'm talking without PEDs, which changed the equation dramatically) Unless Pujols is a PED user (always a possibility, I guess), he should suffer a normal decline anyway, even without the injury. And recovery from injury becomes more difficult as we get older (believe me, I know what I'm talking about here!). I don't see him *ever* returning to what he once was. He could still have a couple of pretty nice seasons, I'll grant, but yikes that contract is horrendous.

There are some awful ones, to be sure. Like Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard. But how about Pujols? Legendary player, first-ballot HOFer. But look at his trend: Year - OPS - OPS+ 2008 - 1.114 - 192 2009 - 1.101 - 189 2010 - 1.011 - 173 2011 - 0.906 - 148 2012 - 0.859 - 140 2013 - 0.767 - 116 So unbelievable numbers from 2008-2010. Good numbers from 2011-2012. Still above average numbers in 2013 (116 ops+ is not bad, though for a 1b it's not ideal). But (a) look at the trend - no year are those numbers going up; and ( look at the remaining contract: Year - Age - Owed 2014 - 34 - $23 m 2015 - 35 - $24 m 2016 - 36 - $25 m 2017 - 37 - $26 m 2018 - 38 - $27 m 2019 - 39 - $28 m 2020 - 40 - $29 m 2021 - 41 - $30 m That's right folks. At the rate he's declining, by 2015 he'll have an ops+ under 100, which means by then he'll be a below-average hitter. Not just below average for a first baseman or DH. Below average, period. And the Angels will still be on the hook for him for SIX more seasons at an average of $27.5 million per season. Holy schamoly that's unbelievable.

Yeah, that would be sweet. No reason Bogaerts couldn't stay at short, at least for a half-dozen years, before they'd need to think about moving him. Him and Cecchini could be a very potent left side of the infield. If the Sox could get a masher at 1b, what a complete infield they'd have including Pedey.

I hear you. But again, KC has lost a lot of leverage here. Sure, they could just keep Shields, but for what? They were willing to deal Myers because they were getting two years of Shields at a time when they thought the AL Central could be had. Well, it can't be had by them in 2013, and that leaves Shields with just one more year left on his contract. After that, I don't see how they re-sign him. So that's the prospect they're facing right now. Sometimes you have to look at sunk costs. If they are going to trade him, they're probably not going to get as good a package as they gave up in the first place. And why should they? A team acquiring Shields isn't getting Shields for as long as KC was planning, so Shields' trade value is lower now than it was when KC got him. Bummer for KC, but that's how it goes. They gambled and it didn't pay off. Might be time to cut your losses, deal him away while a team can still get a year plus a stretch run out of him, and give a really good package in return, even if it's not quite as good as Myers. The longer KC waits, the more likely that either (a) they'll just be stuck with him for 2014, or ( the return package is even worse.

If 5/75 was what would get Ellsbury done, I think the Sox would definitely do that. I don't think that will be sufficient, though. Someone will pay a lot more than that, I think. I'm thinking like 6/108 or something. And for that, I wouldn't sign him.

Shields would be great for the Sox. But given what KC had to give up to get him (a top MLB prospect in Myers), I shudder to think what Boston would have to pony up to get him. The good news on that front is that KC would have less leverage. Shields only has one year left on his contract, and I can't see KC extending him or re-signing him as a FA. He would probably be too costly for them. They were hoping to go for it this year I think, but that's obviously not panning out for them. Deal Ranaudo and an OF bat (Brentz) and maybe another 2nd tier prospect for Shields. I'd do that.

I might consider that if the Sox didn't have to take on all of Lee's $25 million salary. The Phils would have to eat a good chunk of that in order for me (if I was the Sox' GM, which, obviously, I am not) to consider that. I think the Sox will just kind of ride this out.

Then maybe they'll have the $$ to keep Lee.

Crap crap crap crap crap. I really wanted that guy and all he would have cost was $$, not prospects. And the Sox have plenty of $$. But man, the Phillies just pile on the contracts.

I have no idea what this is supposed to mean.

Try this: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/16284-Shoring-Up-the-Rotation?p=856398&viewfull=1#post856398

It's an interesting position the Sox are in with so many quality prospects. The bottom line is that they can't *all* play for the Red Sox, so the best use of some of them as resources is to trade them to fill other needs. The trick is knowing which ones to trade, and maximizing their return. Not always an easy thing to do (they guessed wrong on Scott Cooper v. Jeff Bagwell, for example).

What I hope happens: - Sox sign Miguel Gonzalez. - Sox sign Brian Wilson. - Sox call up Bogaerts to play 3b the rest of the season. - Ross comes back healthy to back up Salty, who might be wearing down. - September callups include: Cecchini, DeLaRosa, Webster, Brentz, and Bradley Jr., providing the Sox with a dynamic September bench. What I think will happen: - Sox will lose out on the Gonzalez sweepstakes. Well, this one has already happened. - Sox will not sign Wilson. Dodgers got him. - Sox will trade for a mediocre 3b like Michael Young. Thankfully I was wrong about this one. - Sox will trade for a mediocre starting pitcher not named Jake Peavy. Ok, surprised, they not only got Peavy, they got him for what I consider to be a steal. - Sox will trade for a couple of decent relievers, one of whom will pitch poorly. Got Brayan Villarreal in the Peavy deal. Not good this year and injured, but last year was tremendous for Detroit. Could be helpful, might amount to nothing. We'll see. - Bogaerts might get called up for a cup of coffee in September. Well, it happened earlier than September, which is great, considering I wanted him here a while ago. - Webster will be added to the roster in September.

Yeah, even though Norris intrigues me more than Peavy, no way I'd do that suggested deal. Cecchini is a really good prospect, and Ranaudo - who has always had a very high ceiling - finally seems to be getting it, and he's been very impressive this year. And Brentz isn't just a throw-in either. No thanks on that deal.

On the Gonzalez note, from (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings130726/calling-stiffer-ped-penalties-mlb): "• Clubs that are in on Cuban pitcher Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez are giving off the vibe that the Red Sox are the favorite, because, more and more, they like the idea of spending the money on a guy they believe is big league-ready more than overpaying in prospects for just about any pitcher on the trade market. "This guy should pitch in the big leagues by September and take a regular turn in the rotation next year," one exec said. "Very impressive guy."" The more I look at this, the more I think this is the right move. 26-year old hard throwing potential #2 starter. All he'd cost is money. They could put him in the rotation or, if that isn't the best fit, put him in the bullpen for the rest of this year, and then run him out as a starter next year and beyond. They have money to spare, and this would allow them to use that resource to get what they need while keeping all their really good prospects. This is the move the Sox need to make.

Like who? Michael Young? .278/.342/.405/.747, 105 ops+ I guess that's a possibility, though his defense stinks and he has no power anymore (7 hr in 389 plate appearances, and just 26 hr in his past 3 seasons). Maybe his price wouldn't be that high (and it shouldn't be). Not sure what else is out there.

Ok, thanks for the correction.

Agreed. And I think they'll muddle through the month of August as best they can, but come September, Bogaerts will be with the big club playing 3b.

Iglesias' bat has turned cold, which is not surprising considering that (a) he was insanely hot and nobody could keep that up, and ( very few of us thought he'd hit better than like .230 this year anyway. Here is his season breakdown: First 34 games: .434/.484/.575/1.059, .490 babip Last 24 games: .227/.266/.239/.505, .267 babip The question is whether the Sox can live with Iglesias as a .227/.266/.239/.505 hitter the rest of the way, or if that's his true level right now. Obviously it's not the 1.059 ops level, but is it somewhere in-between? Can he be a .250/.300/.350/.650 hitter with a world-class glove? If so, that's a very useful player.