Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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Looks like it's about time for Oswalt's agent to give him a slap and tell him to start liking the Red Sox.
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Good post. :thumbsup:
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IMO the perfect scenario for Wake is that he retires but we can summon him to un-retire in emergency situations for the next 10 years. It's not like he has to get in shape to do what he does.
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Exactly.
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Fred, this is where the line gets crossed. People do not come to a baseball message board to be subjected to other people's diatribes, or threatened with it as if it's a punishment.
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I'm also an accountant, in a small private practice.
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I agree that the stat save is dumb and overrated. I don't agree that the importance of a strong setup guy and a strong bullpen is overrated. One of the things that killed the Sox last September was the games blown by the bullpen, Bard in particular. Also, the World Series was a clinic in bullpens deciding games. Larussa and Washington were playing almost every game to get 5-6 from their starter and then move to the procession of relievers.
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Aha, but judging talent and predicting future performance may be two entirely different things, and GM's also have to make very expensive bets on how players who have performed in the past will perform in the future. Epstein continues to get crushed for Lackey and Crawford. Maybe deservedly so. But I don't think anybody predicted how bad their numbers would be for us.
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I was just trying to make a point and to stir up some discussion, which I think it has. When you say 'it ain't that hard', though, I think you're sidestepping the question of why, if it's so easy, GM's throughout baseball keep making massively expensive blunders year after year.
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No, there is no comparison betwen rocket science and running a major league team. Rocket science is an exact science dealing with aerodynamic engineering. Running a major league team, i.e. making personnel and financial allocation decisions, is an extremely inexact science, dealing with estimations of human performance values within a highly competitive, economically inefficient, limited and shifting market. No comparison at all.
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I think sometimes certain points of view just pick up steam and people stop taking a close look at some of the implications. Specifically, the notion that Ortiz is going to cost a giant chunk of money, that the money would be better spent on pitching and that we don't really need his bat anymore. I think it's the last part that's especially contentious. Ortiz was 8th in the majors in OPS last year, behind Bautista, Cabrera, Braun, Kemp, Fielder, Berkman and A-Gon. Ahead of Votto, Pujols and all the other big bats you can think of. The prevailing wisdom is that we need pitching a lot more than we need offense now. Well, you still do need offense.
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Personally I'll be happy to see Ortiz in a Red Sox uniform again and yes, I think the forum would have an entirely different tone if Ortiz had been let go and he signed with the Yankees. He could do some serious damage playing half his games in that park.
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Vlad might be close to done though. A 317 OBP and a 733 OPS last year. That's 220 points of OPS less than Ortiz.
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Peering into the Pitching Garbage Pail with your Pal, Pal
Bellhorn04 replied to Palodios's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Giants are at 16-1. Cards are at 18-1. -
Peering into the Pitching Garbage Pail with your Pal, Pal
Bellhorn04 replied to Palodios's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Pumpsie posted the Vegas odds for winning the 2012 World Series a few days ago: Philly 6-1 NYY 13-2 LAA 13-2 Tex 9-1 Det 9-1 Bos 11-1 Also TB 20-1 Tor 40-1 I think we can designate Vegas as being just as expert as MLB Radio...unless anyone has any objective evidence to show otherwise. -
The latest on Papi is that 'arbitration experts' think the Red Sox would win their case, and that Ortiz is very open to avoiding arbitration and settling on a 2-year deal.
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Ah what the heck, sign Harden and Ohlendorf too. But we might have to hire more mechanics for the pitchers garage. There will be a lot of heaps to be worked on.
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Red Sox 2012 fearless prediction thread
Bellhorn04 replied to RedSoxfanforlife305's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The whole notion of experts making preseason picks is a joke. Have you noticed that none of them ever shows us their track record of how their past predictions worked out? Anybody here can make preseason picks that have just as much of a chance of turning out right.
