Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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OK, I get the Beckett offer thing, but I find it really hard to believe that they didn't notice that Homer Bailey signed a 6 year, $105 million extension on Feb. 19, precisely 150% of the offer to Lester, or that they wouldn't realize that Lester and his agents would feel they were being outrageously lowballed in reference to Bailey and the current market. You'd pretty much have to believe they were being buffoons.
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The all inclusive "2015 Predictions" thread
Bellhorn04 replied to BSN07's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I agree, if Tanaka and Pineda stay healthy all year the Yankees could surprise a lot of people and could certainly be in the playoffs. -
Kimmi, I think the question at hand now is how the Sox specifically handled the negotiations with Lester. He was not just any free agent, because they had a big time window to deal with him, and they did make him an offer in the offseason. But in the history of big contract negotiations I don't think a team has ever made such a huge jump from opening offer to final offer. They ended up doubling their initial offer. That is very strange, if we're taking the position that the Red Sox 'assign values and stick to them.' I think the only way the negotiations can be looked on as systematic or methodical is if the ultimate plan was to let him go.
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I agree with your last statement. I also believe that if the Sox really wanted Lester back they would have offered him at least $100 million in the offseason and come to an agreement. Compared to Sandoval and Hanley deals, though, Lester would have been a riskier play. It would have been more money and paid him up to a higher age. And pitchers are riskier to begin with. Time will tell if they made the right call.
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That's called escalation, man. I learned about it in marriage counseling.
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Yes, clutch pitching.
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I wish the two of you would make peace, seriously. What this board needs sometimes isn't a moderator, it's a mediator.
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Just wait till you check out the game threads, Kimmi. Almost every game there will be at least one move or non-move by Farrell that someone thinks is idiotic. That's true, actually.
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I think it's almost a lock that Hamels gets traded. I wonder if this would do it: Kelly, Cecchini, Victorino (Sox paying some of his salary) + one more second-tier prospect.
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2015 Spring Training Games Thread
Bellhorn04 replied to mvp 78's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
It would be a great story if he did. -
2015 Spring Training Games Thread
Bellhorn04 replied to mvp 78's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
I think from now on I'll think of Victorino as 'day-to-day' even when he's playing. -
Back to the oppositional thing for a moment - I forgot that they do give you a set of splits on this in Baseball-Ref. Papi's career OPS vs. teams over .500 = .909 Papi's career OPS vs. teams below .500 = .944 So there is a difference, not huge, but .035 of OPS.
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What about managers and coaches choking under pressure? Grady Little, Pete Carroll?
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I know I can't win this argument, Kimmi. Truth be told, I'm just trying to lose with honor.
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2015 Spring Training Games Thread
Bellhorn04 replied to mvp 78's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
I like the way you put that. -
My point with the oppositional thing was limited to analyzing Ortiz's postseason OPS of .962. That may not seem much higher than his regular season OPS of .926, but if you consider that he's also facing better pitching in the postseason, I think you can make a reasonable case that the margin is greater.
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Personally I think there may be a number of issues that haven't been fully addressed in any analytics of clutch. The one that jumps out at me is whether sufficient consideration is given to 'season leverage' vs. 'game leverage'. In other words, an at-bat in the first inning of a crucial game in September might reasonably be argued to be higher pressure than a late and close at-bat in April. I think we may see the analytics of clutch significantly revamped at some point.
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I'm not really sure what you're saying. Oppositional strength is always a big factor whether it's individual or team performance, in any sport.
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Well, so much for Cliff Lee thoughts. He is reporting soreness in same part of elbow as last year.
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I will counter with some admittedly raw 'strength of opposition' data. Ortiz has played in 17 postseason series. I tabulated where each of the 17 opposing staffs finished in their league that year in ERA+. The average standing was 4.0 out of an average of 15 teams. This confirms that the overall pitching he was facing was better than what he faced in the regular season. Secondly, the pitching faced in the postseason would be further strengthened by all the off days which allow teams to completely eliminate their #5 starter, and to use their #4 starter probably only twice if they play the maximum number of postseason games. Overall strength of relief pitching would also be increased by the additional days of rest. I would really like to someone tackle some strength of opposition adjustments for the postseason. The data is all there, it wouldn't be that difficult.
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But the analytics people won't use postseason numbers because the samples aren't big enough for them. If they allowed them they'd have to concede that a guy like Ortiz has been exponentially better in the postseason than guys like Bagwell and Swisher and Teixeira, all very strong regular season performers.
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But I can't think of any other player since I've been watching baseball that has had more dramatic game-winning hits than Ortiz.
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I have a possible answer to this too. The 'ratcheting up' may not be something entirely under the player's control. It may be something that happens at a more subliminal level, an animal level, the flow of adrenalin and all that. It's said that people in extreme situations have found their physical strength increases. I can come up with answers to almost all these questions. My answers may be total BS, of course.
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I would agree with this as a general principle, but I think there can still be degrees of separation between major league players. We have already talked about some clear cases of certain players not being able to handle the spotlight of a big market team or a big contract as well as others do, irrespective of talent levels.
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I have a possible answer for the 'late and close' number. It may have a lot to do with the pitchers he is facing in those situations. Many times in a late close game, the opposing manager gets his toughest lefty reliever specifically ready for Ortiz. That is one problem with some of these numbers is that they don't factor in 'strength of opposition', IMO.
