When you add up Buch's sample sizes, you get totals that reflect a slightly above average pitcher, but don't really reflect how incredibly erratic he has been.
I think it's 5 bad starts. 6.1 / 4 falls closer to mediocre than bad.
4 of the 5 bad starts came in his first 7, only 1 in his last 12.
If he keeps trending like he has been he can still end up with a very strong season.
His fWAR is 2.6. The dollar value is a multiple of that based on current free agent contract stats.
His fWAR is higher than his ERA would indicate because of his FIP. (I know, you stopped reading already.)
None taken, it's all just jibber-jabber anyway. But he pitched a few more innings last year than he did in 2013 so I don't really think it was cherry-picking.
Oh I know.
It's just that there does seem to be an ongoing commentary that Papelbon is on the verge of totally losing it. Since coming off the DL he's pitched 4 innings with 8 K's, no walks and 1 hit allowed.