It is clear that the worst part of the team is the bullpen. I am not real happy with 1,2,3 in the rotation or at least not with 3 and 1 is simply unproven as a 1. Tonight could change that. However Lester had opportunities last year to step up like a 1 and it did not happen. Really Buch worries me. He has not had healthy years. His weight is up and down. His weight is down this year but it is so far down he looks like a rail...thinner than I have ever seen him.
At the end of the day, lets say they end up with a mediocre pen. Lets say the rotation stands pat, no better or worse than we have seen. The pen is so bad that moving Bard there is a move that begins to take them toward mediocre but it robs the rotation of one of the two effective starters they have had as Bard looks very competitive with other 5's. There is little to no chance that Cook will be better. However he could be adequate. So I can buy status quo for the rotation.
Lets say the defense is no better and no worse than we have seen.
OK now we are down to the offense. Last year that was arguably if not in fact the best offense in the league. They have at least marginally gone in the wrong direction in that Youk has got some real issues. Ortiz is red hot but Ortiz makes his living hitting. So you had to figure on him hitting or you don't have a shot. You had to figure on Youk hitting for that matter. The real difference is the improvements other teams have made while the Sox maybe only marginally have gone the wrong way.
The point being even with Ells and CC this is not going to be the best offense in the league this year. It would be fortunate to end up 3rd with 4th more likely. How does that translate into 92-95 wins and a post season appearance? We should remind ourselves that at his best, CC is not Ells. So lets not be thinkin' that if CC comes back strong, we have Ells x 2. While we are on Ells, he will very likely come back slowly this year.
Granted other teams should likely have their injury issues as well. However when I look at what the Sox bring to the table, it is hard to find a rational for them doing any better than the 2nd WC birth and frankly I think it will be a struggle to make that.
Ortiz is carrying this team just to look at one issue. What are they gonna' do when they are playing the interleague games in NL parks? That should work out great!
We keep saying it is early, it is early but the winning percentage we need just to win 92 games keeps climbing as the losses pile up.
So since this is a team built around its offense and I cannot find a way to define them better than 3rd in the league and more likely 4th, I worry at the end of the day about the offense because even if we get the pen to mediocre and everything else stays the same, that does not look like 92 wins to me in this year's AL.