iortiz

Wonder where in the hell is Emmz. I miss her. Could have been a great trio of girls around here.

Lester has posted several years No. 1 type numbers in terms of ERA, WAR, etc. and furthermore where those numbers count... In POs .On the other hand, one year of good performance do not make it a trend.

Yup. Lester needs in terms of WAR something around 4-5 and Porcello 3-4.

FG uses a DR% of 4. Bell brought a DR% around 7, then he ran a cash flow around 5%. All those DRs% won't likely cover the salary inflation even at Y #4 of his contract since the AVV is too high for a mid-rotation guy who has a contract which is not that long, unless he improves his suggested track record.

Porcello's performance was better than the last one. Hopefully he keeps this way.

Sweet! I have him in my fantasy team.

1. I pay for what happened which likely suggest me what will happen when a guy still has enough gas in his tank. Not otherwise. You do not pay for a track record of mediocre numbers, hoping excellence just because he is young. Look at Papelbon, pretty similar case at the time (excellence + durability) and still like the good wines, posting ridiculous ERAs and saving bunches of games AND Still Durable as I projected. 2. I just showed you his numbers, why do you refuse to accept that he is a True No.1 and still relatively young and at his prime. You think he is not a bargain? Fine!, Please name 5 pitchers who are making less money with his track record AND durability at 30 or less. I'll wait. 3. A DR% below 2 digits doesn't justify high AVV for mid-term contracts for mediocre pitchers, sorry, mid-rotation guys like Porcello unless he improves, say at 3-4 WAR range (No. 2 type). That's the drum I've been beating, nothing more, nothing less, reason why I offered a public bet (for fun). Engineering Economics apply regardless the industry when cash flow is on the table. This is why I say you do not understand the time value of money; you just don't. I do not mean it as an insult either.

Plus, another "intangible" is that he was already proved in this environment.

Yeah! Whata show this guy must have been. I will check Juan, Spud.

He has 2 Y of 5+ WAR (ace type), two more 4+ (No. 1), and one around in the middle of 3-4 (No. 2 type) at 200+ IP in all of those Ys. That's a pretty good sample of what this guy is capable of. In my book this mean proved No. 1. arm. How many of that list has this track record AND his durability?. Sure, he had a couple of "down" years posting WARs around 2.5+, (No. 2 type in Kimmi's book LOL!) but putting in context, those numbers are Porcello's best numbers and who is making 80+. The other fact is that he posted his best numbers just last year, which suggest that he is a very good shape and still in his prime, so the age is not a concern. As I said, Durabilty + excellence through 9 Y begining your 30s is pretty rare to see. So, 155 M given the market + his track record sounds like a bargain to me.

Pretty cool how Tiant used to make his delivery to the plate.

Seems like Keuchel is the real deal this year. Los Astros seem pretty good thus far.

Haha you are right Bell, we have said everything about him already. Time to track his performance from now on, and not only from him but the whole staff as well since this thread is about the whole rotation, isn't it? So let's do it!

Well, you are at stage 1, kind of sensitive when your team L. Some of us are at stage 3 already. We get mad when we lose but do not overreact that much since we realize that it was coming anyways. Hopefully we do not get into stage 4. In that stage you just don't give a f*** about a L. LOL!

That sucks. Hopefully it is nothing serious, we need his bat.

just arrived home and turned the TV to watch the game and is already 4-1? Wow, Clay.

...or probably other teams won't drink that kool aid and won't pay what the sox paid for a #3 LOL!. I think almost all the board has agreed that he is a #3 with a potential to become #2 (which I doubt since the BABIP death will kill him sooner or later to survive in ERAs below 4)

Those are aces. No 1s are in the range of 4-5. No. 2? 3-4. As I said he needs to improve. It is what the Sox are expecting from him to justify the contract since the DR% is below 2 digits and the contract is not that long.

Name me 2.7 WAR pitchers who made/will make 20 M and are committed to do so for 4 Y like Porcello.

You do not like ERA, fine. Around 2.5 WAR players are not #2s or #1s by any means.

As you said, only if he improves, otherwise it will be a bad one.

I would take a longer sample. At least 10 Y to normalise the chart. This is what FG suggests as a good rule-of-thumb Scrub 0-1 WAR Role Player 1-2 WAR Solid Starter 2-3 WAR Good Player 3-4 WAR All-Star 4-5 WAR Superstar 5-6 WAR MVP 6+ WAR #1s in my book are in the last three categories.

Based on his career numbers he is a 4.3 ERA pitcher #3-#4 type on my book.

you are correct.

100 % this and mostly the underlined. This is exactly what I was thinking when I realised that we were going to go with this pitching staff. Kepping proportions, this was what happened in SEP 2011.