iortiz

Here's the link "Teams aren't using WAR, so why are we demanding Buster Olney talk about it?" http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2015/8/14/9153493/mlb-buster-olney-war-rbi

Pretty much what Jd was saying, and he is correct.

In other order of ideas, here's an interesting article about WAR. The fight over WAR obscures the fact that MLB has moved on Yesterday, there was a giant dustup when Buster Olney tweeted that Josh Donaldson was an MVP candidate (YES!) because of his RBI total (NO!). The response was pretty deafening, as defenders of advanced statistics came out of the woodwork to try to hold Buster accountable. He subsequently defended himself, saying that he is not always for hard-core wonks, and that a substantial portion of his audience has a much more casual interest in the game, and especially in statistics. Well, that made a lot of other people mad, because...well, I'll let our friend Jesse Spector, of The Sporting News, explain in his own words: "Holding out against advanced statistics at this point is indefensible.... It is the job of the media, though, to inform the audience, not to oversimplify because of a perception that people will not understand." Now, as a fellow traveler through sabermetric circles, I sympathize with Jesse, and with everyone else out there who wants some of our leading experts to speak, write, and tweet more intelligently about the game we all love. It's frustrating to think that people might be wrong on the Internet, and that someone with a huge following is encouraging that wrongness. The trouble is that we, too, are wrong. That rolling laughter you heard in the late afternoon was not the Internet responding to my funny Twitter jokes at the expense of the participants in this debate. Rather it came from the front offices around the Major Leagues, as executives at 30 different front offices took a moment from their otherwise busy schedules to laugh at the plebes fighting over a small patch of dirt that they had long ago forsaken. Because, reader, trust me when I say that no Major League teams are using WAR to make their decisions. They have, in the overwhelming majority of cases, moved past it. They each have their own databases and data collection systems. They have their own formulas and approximations of value. And those systems and formulas and approximations are undoubtedly more advanced than anything WAR can provide using publicly available data. If you were running a MLB club, you would have so much more information at your disposal than anything we can glean from WAR. Wins Above Replacement is a tool. Sure, it's a more precise tool than RBI, but a tool nonetheless. While it's one of the better ones we have available to us, it is in no way the be-all end-all of any argument about value or team building. It's a fun starting point for an argument, but it's just an approximation. There are also at least three different calculations of the metric, and those calculations often as misused as runs batted in themselves. Indeed, WAR does not have a monopoly on the truth even with itself, as evidenced by the fact that bWAR, fWAR, and WARP can't resolve their differences. It has barely any greater claim to some kind of capital-T truth than RBI do. And, in that regard, screaming at every reporter that they have to use WAR or WAA (wins above average) or WPA (wins probability added) or wRC+ (weighted runs created, adjusted) is not just counterproductive, but silly. It suggests a level of certainty in the metric(s) that no one should have. Ultimately, I want to believe that most of us understand this. And pretending we have the objectively right answer is the same as demanding everyone think about baseball the way that we do. And that's not fair. WAR is not the Pope, and visiting dignitaries should not have to kiss its ring to talk about the game. It's not our place to look down on people who want to talk about RBI any more than it is the place of Jeff Lunhow to look down on people who are using WAR to talk about his Astros while he uses the pre-cog computers from The Minority Report to plot out Houston's continued rise to dominance over the American League. And it's not fair to demand that Buster Olney and his colleagues constantly "educate" the masses when we don't even know what the right lesson plan is.

For every failure, there will be always an explanation/justificatio/reason known as excuse. I say, Let Cherington and his crew take their bad luck and enigmas somewhere else.

He's not defending me, just pointing out some facts LOL!

Well, I bet money that I used it in that way sometimes ... and U? still made a s*** storm about it.

Injuries are part of the game, sk. Also if you take 2010 and 2011 as well you have 5 years of misery. Five!. It makes 2013 more and more fluke than anything else.... sorry but I can not see it in other way, the plan in recent years has plenty flaws. I insist, the strategy hence the culture has to change. This franchise has arguably the best fan base in baseball and we deserve better than this crap.

How much is Cueto going to make? Cueto or guys like him are a pipedream sk. This team won't sign long term contracts at high AVV for durable proven pitchers beginning their 30s.

...and If you add 2012, it speaks volumes of how bad the plan has been in recent years. We need to change the culture of losing. We need to blow the entire FO otherwise this hardly is going to change.

This clown is a mass of contradictions. He refused to bet regarding Porcello, apparently because he hates me haha although he was pretty sure that he was going to be a 3.5 ERA pitcher or something, in what planet? He made a storm of s*** regarding bets, remember? (still do not know why) and now, somehow he is willing to bet just because he "thinks" (pretty sure, actually) that jd does not understand WAR. As always no one can think different, otherwise he uses his typical obtuse cliches "do not make sense" "bitching/whine" "reading comp" "you do not understand" etc, while starting s*** up. Quoting Hornsby "That's just the way it is"

What happened with the "bet money" blasphemy? You do not like to bet money to prove that you are right.... right? Every single stat has to be taken with a grain of salt, and while I like them, they are not la panacea. In the end they need interpretation of what they tell you between the lines for a certain situation or analysis.

Easy, the results are out there. It's not rocket science. It's pretty clear that nothing have worked out in the last 3/4. The plan and the execution have been horrible. Your hatred and inconditional love for Cherington do not let you see clearly.

Yup. This is why the case method made so famous to arguably the best business school in this planet: Harvard Business School... and reason why a lot business schools have followed the same line around the world. In the end the guy who make the calls take all the information available (tangible and intangible) in order to make the "best" decision for his team. In the end every decision is subjective.

It's not questionable or trickier. The results are out there. The talent, specially at pitching is not there. There's no way to sugar coat it. The plan, execution and results suck. As jcko said, they need to rebuild the FO, immediately.

Well, the BL is that the Red Sox have not used stats and scouting properly.

Well, it's been for a while.

Exactly.

well, some still think that he was/is top rotation arm, based on 1 "good" year, after seven years of service... Oh and because he is young hence he will improve regardless he is talented or not.

Well, it is what I said few weeks ago. Yes, they have to go.

... and some still think that any reliever can close.

Fixed!

Do not worry, he loves to bitch about other people bitching who are actually not bitching. Also He is one of those who loves to drink BC Kool Aid.

Your sig about Cherigton should be in Ben's obituaries. It's incredible how many drank and liked that kool aid at the time.

That's the thing, they are clueless of what they are getting or doing with this team.

Do not be surprised if they make an offer ala Lester.