BornToRun

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. I feel like, while he is no longer an ace and has durability issues that he's pitched better than a 4.54 ERA that's been inflated due to a couple of outings that I feel are the exception to the rule.

Jesus, where the f*** have you been the last few months?

Why would he fake it?

EDIT: deleted

you really should try optimism some time. It's a lot less stressful.

What'd I f*** up this time?

Okay, I hope I did this correctly. If you take out the best and worst 3 of Josh's starts, you get 31 Earned runs over 77 1/3 innings. That comes out to a 3.60 ERA.

Aviles sucks, I doubt Pedro lasts, and Iggy can't hit worth a damn. Andrus probably becomes expendable once Profar is ready so that leads me to think that Andrus was part of it.

Okay, I just did a little bit of amateur statistical analysis to look into Beckett's overall 2012 performance. Beckett's numbers are skewed into "meh" territory by 3 awful starts. His opening start in Detroit, the one vs Cleveland, and his start against New York. In those games, Josh allowed 20 earned runs over 11 innings. With all 3 of these starts taken into account, Josh has allowed 56 earned runs over 111 innings. I took those 3 starts and turned them into bare-bones quality starts, 6 innings with 3 earned runs. This changed Josh's totals to 45 earned runs over 118 innings. This equates to a 3.43 ERA, much nicer than the 4.54 we're currently looking at. The starts vs Detroit and Cleveland had one thing in common, they took place after a long layoff in which Josh hadn't pitched in several days. I left the start vs New York in, which took place after a regular rest period and is more in line with what you can normally expect on a bad day ( a lot of runs but battling through to eat 5 or so innings), and his overall numbers this year on normal rest come out to: 98 innings/ 40 earned runs which is a 3.67 ERA. That 3.67 ERA is much prettier than the 4.54 and is also just about perfectly in line with the peripherals, like his 3.57 FIP, that he has put up this year. When you adjust for two catastrophic outliers, Josh Beckett has had a very solid season in which he's had 2 bad starts severely skew the overall line that is clearly not indicative of his overall performance this season.

I can only name 2 seasons where he's sucked for us and one of them was when he missed 56 games to injury. 2007 was beastly 2008 was decent 2009 was very good 2011 was great 2012 hasn't been great but by no means awful, he's been a solid middle of the rotation starter for the most part save for 2 or 3 games where he got hammered. There's a lot more to look at in a pitcher's effectiveness than ERA.

For 1 year. Manny had off years too you know. As did Papi and a whole host of superstars. It happens, I have no reason to be worried about Gonzo moving forward.

It'd take more than Ogando for me to be happy with that. I don't even know if I'd be happy with Hamilton. He's 31 and going into FA and I can wager that he's going to make a very large amount of money. I don't know if I would trade a younger Ells, Beckett, and Shop for a guy who could very well be gone in 2 months and won't be cheap at all to hang on to and Alexi Ogando. Plus, we have JBJ waiting to take over in CF and I don't know if the outfield is a place we want to dump a lot of money into.

Plus what he's done over his entire career points, overwhelmingly, to him performing more in line what he did in 2011 than 2012. The guy popped 40 HR's in Petco and was an MVP candidate last year. I think what's he's done is a very strong indicator of what we can expect moving forward and that what is happening this year is in all likelihood an outlier.

Isn't Hamilton going into free agency in 2013? That's a bit of a steep price for a rental who's in his 30's playing a position we have a top prospect waiting to take over in a year or two. I know he's Josh Hamilton but still. I was thinking possibly Andrus and some other pieces thrown in, what those would be I don't know.

It's one year. He lived up to the paycheck last season and he is starting to swing the bat better. Rizzo's been up for like a month. A bit early to pass judgement I'd say.

I wonder who we were trying to pry away from Texas. It must have been somebody big for that package.

He's also Justin Germano.

This is hopeless.

Are you serious? It's that awful?

Yeah, totally. He just felt like telling us to f*** ourselves and said his back was hurting. No chance it's actually an issue with the s***** weather and all. Logic? f*** that! Let's get some reactionary whining up in this bitch!