SoxFanForsyth

I remember seeing 94 quite a bit in 2011

Wow. Exact same spot as ball 2.

Ells just missed that

Yeah. Imagine being Webster. Hunter, VMart, AJax, Cabrera, Fielder, and oh by the way, you're going up against Scherzer. Go get em kid.

Having said that I'm going to stick to my guns and predict that he and Webster get dealt for Cliff Lee.

My hope of hopes is that he develops late power a la Youkilis and becomes a 1B. I think he will push a .380 - .400 OBP, which, if he came up for good in 2016, would give us Bogaerts, Bradley, Pedroia, Cecchini, and Lavarnway all as very good, high OBP guys.

Man, awesome awesome awesome ending to the Rangers/A's game today. http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=28202033&partnerId=as_mlb_20130620_9047474

Miller certainly has better velocity and better swing and miss stuff, but he's also going to carry a huge WHIP and goes throw hiccups where he walks the stadium. Give me a little less velocity and slightly more contact for 1/4 of the BB/9 all day everyday.

So, let me ask you this - All things equal (meaning the cost of acquiring him), would you rather 1. Give up the prospects today and go get Papelbon for tonight's game in Detroit, or 2. See what Tazawa has from now until late July, and reassess as to the best course of action?

You can't just completely dismiss it. Before a closer has 313 games under their belt, they have to have 20. In 06, were you saying "I want Pap as closer" or "Go out and get Trevor Hoffman"? Developing key positions internally is the main key to success in today's game.

Just to be clear on Tazawa - Here are his career stats in save situations vs that of Pap: (NOTE: I do concede that Taz has only a small sample, but large enough to at least discuss) Games: Taz - 20 Pap - 313 Opponents OPS: Taz - .565 Pap - .561 WHIP: Taz - 0.787 Pap - 0.998 K/9: Taz - 11.07 Pap - 11.01 BB/9: Taz - 1.33 Pap - 2.34 ERA: Taz - 2.66 Pap - 2.23 So, having said all of that, at this point, saying that Tazawa would not be a good option is based on one of two things: 1. Lack of research, or 2. Blind pessimism. His numbers are almost identical to those of Papelbon's. This is not an attack on anyone, I'm just saying, if you're willing to part with prospects for Papelbon, you better be 110% sure that none of your in house options would provide comparable results. Based on the limited sample we have with Tazawa, it appears as though he would. Given his numbers (and 20 G for a closer is ~ 1/3 of a season), it would be a much better option to have Tazawa prove that he can't close rather than assume that he can't.

Just started this thread on Garin Cecchini this morning, but it's easy to miss bc it's down in the Minor League section. Just FYI.

Doubront isn't depth, he's our #5 starter. We'll see how our depth turns out this weekend with Webster going up against Detroit. That's going to be a big start for him, a true test against an elite offense. I hope he actually throws his sinking fastball this time rather than his straight 4 seamer.

Buster Olney said yesterday on Mut and Merloni that he would expect the Phillies to get a B+ prospect in return for Papelbon. To me, this means someone like Brentz, Britton, or Lavarnway, and the Sox taking on the full salary. My question is this - Would you feel comfortable giving away one of those 3 players for Papelbon, or is even that cost prohibitive?

I don't know. We'll have to see. I don't think he was ever a great fit because of his fly ball rates, but right now his FB% and his HR/FB are at unsustainable high levels, so we're certainly seeing the worst of it. It will correct itself, and that's when you make the judgement.

I know what you mean. My point is more along the lines that the potential replacements aren't doing their jobs all that well either.

Just to be clear, the Red Sox are 20-3 in games in which Bailey has made an appearance. They are 3-0 in games where he's blown saves. He's had 4 Holds and 8 Saves in 15 chances (80% success rate). League average Save % is 70%. On the flip side, there is a some compelling evidence that shows that if you're not comfortable with Bailey, you need to look externally. The cast that the Red Sox have put together in the bullpen thus far have converted just 13 of their 22 Save Opportunities. That's a 59% Save Percentage, and 9 blown saves. That's good for 26th in the MLB. So, for those thinking that there would be a seamless transition to Miller, Tazawa, or Uehara, those numbers may surprise you a bit. Now, Hanrahan was responsible for 2 of the BLSV and 4 of the Saves, so taking his numbers out actually enhances the problem. Without Hanrahan, the Sox have converted 9 Saves in 16 opportunities (56.25%).

I was talking more in the sense of consistently being not just on, but being the heart of multiple teams that underperform and/or collapse.

I feel like once a high level (top 25) prospect gets to AA, he deserves his own thread. Cecchini fits the mold, and was promoted to AA today. Cecchini seems to be the 3B version of Bradley. Promoting him to AA could be a major step in using him as a big trade piece, or he could well be the future 1B or 3B for the Sox.

Drew and, to a lesser extent Middlebrooks, better shape up in a hurry. I only say WMB to a lesser extent because he is still very much a part of the future of the organization, whereas Drew is on a 1-year deal, with no implications on the Sox future. Anyway, here's what Cherrington just said - Sounds like the Sox believe that AAA is more of a warming drawer than a development stage for guys like Bradley and Bogaerts. If that's the case, Middlebrooks and Drew dont necessarily have the luxury of a couple months to figure it out while Bogaerts develops in AAA. Cherrington is saying that once you get past AA, you're available to be called up at any point regardless of experience in AAA.

Jose Reyes = Adrian Gonzalez

The Blue Jays weren't 8 games better than the Red Sox over the course of the full season. They're certainly not 8 games better than the Red Sox over 93 games.

The problem with Bailey isn't mechanics, chicken and beer, his head, or any of that. The problem with Bailey is that he is, and always has been a fly ball pitcher. League Average fly ball rate from 09-13 (since Bailey has been in the league) is 36%. Bailey has a career 46.4% FB rate. That FB rate works in a monster park with huge foul ball territory like Oakland and the AL West (other than Texas). That formula does not work in a place like Boston and the AL East, particularly in Yankee Stadium and Fenway. You can certainly fault the FO for acquiring a pitcher whose peripherals don't exactly line up with what works in Boston and the band boxes of the AL East, that's more than fair. But to say he's not a proven closer when he came to Boston with 75 saves and a career 2.01 ERA is simply not true. What he's going through right now is a statistical blip where his HR/FB is about double league average, and his actually giving up over 60% FB. Regression to the mean is imminent, meaning his FB% will decline drastically and his HR/FB will normalize as well. Whether the Sox want to ride this rocky patch through and wait for the bright side to show up or not is an entirely different question. But lets not take away his credentials of being a proven closer. 2x All Star and ROY. He's not some bum.

Well I am just shocked that a lineup that goes Napoli - Salty can't get a run in from 2nd with nobody out. Shocked! That's such a pathetic order, and Farrell will never learn

No way man. The Bruins game starts in 20 min. Just change the channel.