Looking deeper into Papelbons numbers, in 2006 and 2007, when he was at his prime, his BABIP was .239 and .237, both extremely low. Since then, his BABIP has come up to normal levels, (around the .290-.310 range for those 3 years), and as that came up, his ERA obviously rose and his blown saves and losses rose as well.
So, I guess my question is this. Was Papelbon ever really that good? Or were we all just predisposed to an unlikely chain of events which allowed him to have such a low BABIP for his first two years, thus creating unrealistic expectations?
From the stats that I've been looking at tonight, I think that Papelbon may be, as a career player, closer to the 2008-2010 Papelbon than the 2006-2007 Papelbon, and the more I think about it, the more it becomes clear that if we truly expect him to revert back to 2007 form, we're really just rooting for him to have a lucky season.