SoxFanForsyth

^^^ That was a post I made a couple weeks ago, so the whole "I know you're not defending him" was not intended for you. I just copied/pasted.

You had every reason to have a heart attack when the guy even got up to stretch his legs, for fear he may actually come in. I think Papelbon is done, myself. That's why the Fuentes signing will be so nice. Fuentes, Bard, and Jenks can all close out games instead of Pap if he struggles or if he needs a night or two off. Of all relief pitchers with at least 20 saves last year (29 pitchers), Papelbon was tied for 1st with Francisco Cordero with 8 Blown Saves, he had the 5th worst ERA, and he had the most losses. He blew 8 saves and converted 37, so he had a 82.23% conversion rate. That's right at the bottom next to Leo Nunez of the qualified closers by the parameters set above (20 saves or more). I know you're not defending him at all, but the guy was just absolutely awful last year, and I really think people who are thinking he's going to bounce back this year just because it's his contract year don't have too much to lean on. I'm pretty sure Teixera and A-Rod aren't going to care that it's his contract year when they're up in the bottom of the 9th in a 1 run game. By the way, more 2010 stats to make you worry Pap vs BAL - 5.19 ERA Pap vs NYY - 6.97 ERA Pap vs TOR - 4.26 ERA I mean....that's our division right there outside of TB. That's who you have to be good against. Papelbon?

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman i didnt have answer on wbz-fm a few mins ago. but yes, #redsox are still looking at fuentes. pen w/ him, bard, jenks & pap would be superb Apparently we're still looking into it. Maybe if Fuentes took a 3 year/12mm back end loaded deal so that we could flip some of this money off the books next year, it would work (2mm in 11, 5mm in 12, 5mm in 13). I mean honestly. How sick would it be to have 4 players who can close a game out??

Not to mention the fact that Beltran is a FA next year, so if we really wanted him as a DH, why would we give up players now? Just sign him in the offseason. Either way, count me out on Beltran and Sizemore for that matter next offseason. Not worth the injury risk if you ask me.

Just read that the Sox are still in on Brian Fuentes per Jon Heyman. Anyone have any thoughts on this? I'm still up in the air about it. Guess it depends on the deal. Don't know how much I'd like to commit to a LOOGY, but at the same time having Fuentes, Doubront, Bard, Pap, Jenks, Wheeler, Atch, and Wake in the bullpen would be pretty solid.

Going to lunch. EX - if your turn is back up in the next hour, you may want to send your picks to Italian.

*chirp chirp, chirp chirp*

That's what I was looking for.

*removing from round 3 pick* Dammit. I thought everyone would 'overlook' him. Get it? It's funny because he's short.

We may get through round 3 tonight. This is flying today.

No? Italian said "Dipre will probably kill you for that pick", which I assumed meant that you thought Posey was incredibly overrated.

Already picked by Italian. Now I don't feel so bad

By the way - Italian predicted I would get mobbed by Dipre for that pick. Personally, I love it.

Buster Posey, C, $450,000

Yeah I think Italian got offline right before Keepers 2nd pick, so I didn't see it.

s*** my bad. Ok hang tight.

Haha go easy RSFFL! I am at work, I have to do something every once in a while. On to my pick. Jon Lester, SP $3.75mm

Hey a700 - Its your pick on the draft FYI.

Alright, maybe I wasn't being quite articulate enough in my posts. I wasn't trying to compare Lowrie to Tulo, and only slightly to Young. The numbers were there to show that there are players whose HR/FB% increases with experience. As far as his injury concerns, I think he's recovered from the wrist injury, and his only other "injury" that I can remember (correct me if I'm wrong) was his mono last year, which does not have any lingering effects. I would venture to say that last year he proved that his wrist problems played no part in his offensive output, and that his wrist can now be considered a thing of the past. For your predictions, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I think his HR/FB% will sit at around 8% for his career, his FB% will probably stay around his career norm of 50.1%, as it is right now, and spread over a course of 550 AB's per season, that projects him to be a 22 HR/season guy.

Well, in fairness, you're not very articulate at times. You argued that Lowrie wouldn't crack 18 HR, then I responded my argument and that James agrees with me. You said that James is the middle ground prediction, and he predicted 17. So we were splitting hairs over 1 HR. Either way - I've stated my case about Lowrie's HR potential. I read your posts fully, for the record.

I've got my pick all lined up, so it shouldn't be very long at all after a700 picks that it's your turn.

Troy Tulo - 10.2% HR/FB in his first 3 seasons (06-08). Since then, 15.9% Michael Young - 7.6% HR/FB his first 7 seasons (02-08). Since then, 12.8% I'm not saying that Lowrie is going to be a Tulo type hitter, but he could very well be a Michael Young type hitter. 20 HR/season. Lets say Lowrie has 420 AB's this year. That's playing about 100-110 games. At his career FB% of 50.1%, he would hit 211 fly balls. If he hits 20 HR, that would be a 9.5% HR/FB%. An increase of 3% from his career numbers, considering other than last year, he had his rookie season plus a season with a broken wrist, I think that's an extremely reasonable expectation.

Anybody who gets to pitch against the Padres is a good pick.