So the way the Sox have reset the rotation going forward (Lackey - Peavy - Buchholz - Lester - Lackey in next 5 games), it looks like the postseason rotation will be Lester - Lackey - Buchholz - Peavy.
Thoughts on this?
Initially, I hated it. I think Buchholz gives us a much better shot to win than Lackey.
But, the more I thought about it, I came away with 3 points that made me perfectly content with the decision.
1. Regardless of whether you go Buch - Lackey or Lackey - Buch, it doesn't much matter as they both only get one start in the ALDS, and they're both guaranteed a start in the ALDS. So there really isn't a huge difference, which brings me to point #2.
2. If there is not a huge difference (as stated above), then you can start to look at some splits, and you see Lackey has absolutely dominated at home (2.47 ERA at home, 4.39 ERA on the road), so getting him his start at Fenway could serve us well. I'm not sure how much stock I put into these numbers, but it may be part of the decision making process. As a side note, Buchholz has a 1.99 ERA at Fenway, and a 0.95 ERA away from Fenway.
3. This is probably the biggest of the 3. If the Sox can clinch the best record in the AL, it means they're going to face the WC winner. That wild card winner will attempt, at all costs other than missing the PS, to line up their ace to pitch in the play-in game. That means the Red Sox will likely face the WC pitchers in the order of #2 vs Lester, #3 vs Lackey, and #1 vs Buchholz. So, Buchholz, who probably is the Sox best bet to match up toe to toe with another team's ace, will probably draw the other team's ace rather than Lackey pitching away from Fenway against the other team's ace.
Obviously #3 is completely contingent on the team locking up the WC early enough to line up their SP, and who knows how that will go, but at least from today those are the 3 points that make me a bit more comfortable with the way things are lined up right now.