So who is your game one starter? It's clearly either Lester or Buchholz.
Argument for Lester: He's been outrageously good in the 2nd half, posting a 2.38 ERA and limiting his walks to 2.14 per 9 in the 2nd half. On top of that, he's only gotten better of late, posting a 1.86 ERA over his last 8 starts, albeit with a 2.48 BB.9. Also, he's going deep into games, averaging over 7.1 IP per start, so he's getting at least 1-2 outs in the 8th inning on average. He's also been healthy all season, and isn't needing to ramp up his innings like Buchholz is.
In terms of potential playoff matchups:
- Lester vs the Rays has 3 great outings (totaling 20.1 IP, 5 ER) and 1 very bad outing (4.2 IP, 7 ER). The poor outing came in June when he was really scuffling.
-Against Cleveland, 14 IP, 6 ER.
-Against TEX, 12 IP, 6 ER.
Arguments for Buchholz As good as Lester has been, if Buchholz was healthy all season, this wouldn't even be an argument. It's Buchholz, and it's not close. Buchholz has to show that he's both healthy and can pitch to the same effectiveness as he did early on. He has had excellent results so far, but his mechanics certainly seemed off against the Yankees. Still, though, he absolutely dominated the Rays in his first start back, and showed that even without his best stuff he can still keep runs off the board. On top of that, he's made 14 starts, and has allowed more than 2 ER in just 1 (!!!!!) of those starts. Think about that for a second.
In terms of potential playoff match ups:
-Vs TB, Buch has been dominant, 13 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits allowed. Goodness.
-Has not faced Cleveland.
-Has not faced Texas.
I also think it's useful to get the opponents splits to see how well they fare against LHP as opposed to RHP.
Vs Lefties, the Guardians (#1 in both), the Rays (#4 in wRC+, #5 in OPS), and the Rangers (#10 in wRC+, #6 in OPS) all rank as the best, or at the very least in the top 10 in wRC+ and top 6 in OPS.
Vs Righties, the Rays (#5 in wRC+, #8 in OPS) are the best of the 3, while the Guardians (12th in wRC+, 17th in OPS), and the Rangers (12th in OPS, 16th in wRC+) both struggle pretty badly against RHP.
So, it appears all 3 teams hit lefties pretty well, and the only team of the 3 that hits RHP well (the Rays) gets shut down against Buchholz every time. It's a no brainer to me. Buchholz should get game 1, provided he continues to progress like he has in his first 2 games back.