SoxFanForsyth

If you can get Stanton for Cecchini, Betts, Ranaudo, and Barnes, you pull the trigger on that instantly. And that's likely a better package than anyone else will really be able to offer. Everyone keeps saying "why trade for him when you can sign ____ on a short term deal?" I just have 1 question. Who are you using to replace Ortiz in 2015? He's going to retire in 1-2 years. Who is going to replace him?? It's not going to be someone on a short term deal. It's not going to be Napoli. You need that huge, cornerstone bat to build around. If you have Stanton, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Swihart, and Bradley, that's an enormous level of talent to build around. Particularly when you've also got guys like Owens and Ball sitting in the minors.

Age, talent level, years of control, cost, replacement for Ortiz, 40+ HR at Fenway, franchise cornerstone bat along with Bogaerts. Should I continue? And Stanton posted a 135 wRC+, Nap posted a 129 wRC+. And Stanton plays his home games at an enormous park.

Unless the Red Sox are wanting to go after a big, big bat (Stanton, etc) via trade, and then stick Nava at 1B, I agree with you. I can certainly envision a scenario where the Red Sox go hard after a bat via the trade market, stick Nava and Carp at 1B for about 1/2 of the year, and then A) move Cecchini over to 1B to develop him there and look at what's available at the trade market. I don't think Carp playing there everyday would necessarily hurt you. He had a .885 OPS last year, and his 3 year 162 gm average has him at a .790 OPS with around 20 HR a year. Certainly they could do worse than that. It's not far off at all from where Adrian Gonzalez was in 2012.

Why not? LAA gets slightly less raw power where power is significantly more valued for 2 years. Trumbo in 2013: 159 G .234/.294/.453, 34 HR Trumbo Career: .250/.299/.469 WMB Career: 169 G .254/.294/.462, 32 HR They're extremely similar players. And the Angels need a 3B, while the Sox need a 1B. If there were no Bogaerts or Cecchini lined up, his free swinging ways would be absorbed by the team.

As is Middlebrooks, but if you can move Middlebrooks for Trumbo straight up, you at least have the raw power hitter at a position of little organizational depth.

Why do they have to stay under the lux tax?? They already reset their numbers last year when they stayed under.

I'd never say Nap is indespensible. The Sox have a lot of options at 1B. Is Billy Butler available? He could certainly be a big hitter at Fenway Park. If the Sox sign Stephen Drew, what about sending Middlebrooks to LA for Trumbo? The Angels (badly) need a 3B. Early reports are that Napoli doesn't like the Sox initial offer and is shopping around.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/hot-stove-rumors-troy-tulowitzki-matt-kemp-andre-ethier-carl-crawford-carlos-gonzalez-allen-craig-trevor-rosenthal-110713 "The more realistic notion would be the Dodgers moving one of their expensive veteran outfielders. That possibility, in fact, already is in the works; the Dodgers, according to major-league sources, are listening on Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford, telling prospective suitors, “If you’re interested in one of them, make us an offer.”"

Command and control are the last things to develop. Henry Owens walked 4.5 per 9 last year. Want to get rid of him? Scherzer had a 3.7 BB/9 in the minors (Webster had a 3.7 BB.9 last year in Pawtucket). Baseball is full of pitchers who took time to develop command and control during their early years. It would be silly to give up on a SP because he had a rough first year after never throwing above AA ball.

Ethier, Crawford, Puig, Kemp. They're listening on 3 of those 4 (not Puig). You're not going to keep one of those as a PH, and Puig has to play.

If you're banking on a 2 year recovery from a shoulder injury and are willing to deal a good bit of money for him, then go trade for Kemp, who, when healthy, is a perennial 30 HR guy with the ability to touch a 40/40 season.

You guys are very reactive over a rough year. Don't forget, Webster had never thrown a pitch in AAA before 2013. Would you also trade JBJ? He struggled pretty bad in the MLB this year after trying to skip AAA. And RDLR had TJS last year. 2nd year back is typically the year where they start to flourish. You'd be selling low on two guys who both have insane upside and were probably pushed a bit too hard this year, considering Webster was a conversion project (played SS in HS, converted to P in pro ball), and RDLR (TJS).

On Drew - I think the Sox resign him for 2/24. I don't think any team is going to give him money and their 1st rounder. I can maybe see a team in the top 10 picks making a move for him (Mets, maybe?), but outside of that, I think he stays in Boston. Also, Ervin Santana is asking for $100mm. Don't. Trade. A. Single. Pitching. Prospect. (Unless it's for Stanton.)

From everything I'm hearing, the Yanks, Dodgers, and Sox are the 3 big leaders on Tanaka (Mark Saxon reporting this). I wouldn't be pissed if we got him, I just don't think he should be a priority or that the Sox should drop a lot of money on him when there are other areas that could use upgrades much more than SP

You don't make moves based on what the Yankees do or don't do. That's bad business. Would he make the Sox better? Potentially. But you don't address areas of depth and strength for a mild tick upgrade. Doubront is a good pitcher. You have to swallow lumps with these guys and next year should be a breakout year for Doubront, after a very nice development season. The fact is that there are teams who need Tanaka much more than the Sox, which will drive up the price well outside of the price the Sox would pay. It just makes no sense when the Sox have substantial high end depth. The Sox need to look at 1B, C, and RP. SP is not a need.

What's funny is that Bogaerts K'd 26% of the time vs Bradley's 29%. The samples are so small that this amounts to a mere 3 Ks for JBJ. Seems ridiculous that he can't make contact and Bogaerts will be fine. If Bogaerts K's 1 more time he's got the same K rate as Bradley, but nobody is worked up about him. JBJ had a 73.4 contact % and Bogaerts had a 76.3 contact %, a mere 2.9% difference. Anyway, I digress. Just wanted to make my point. Sorry for the distraction. Carry on.

Wow I clearly missed that. That's silly. JBJ will be fine. I'm not going to get started on that because I don't want to hijack this thread but yeah, that's silly.

I just really don't see the need for this guy. You've got Lester, Buch, Lackey, Doubront, and Peavy next season. Given, you potentially lose Lester and Peavy in 2015, and Lackey in 2016, but you've also got Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, and Ball all coming up, not to mention Webster and Workman. I know Webster struggled but he also was in his first year above AA this year. Nobody is giving up on JBJ because he struggled. We just chalk it up to him being a rookie and needing some more development. Same situation with Webby. Plus you've got a lot of under the radar guys like Brian Johnson, who got hit in the futures at Fenway game in 2012 but other than that has been absolutely excellent (career 2.38 era in the minors, drafted in the 1st round of 2011). The Sox farm right now is loaded with talent. There is no reason to allocate funds to an area with no need.

Dave Cameron, Dan Szymborski, etc. all dismiss it as a post hoc explanation of success rather than as a reason for success Almost all of the fangraphs writers completely dismiss it

Plus, combined with his defense and base running, he's an extremely valuable player (5.8 fwar this year)

Sorry but I just really don't see the Yankees keeping up with the Sox, Rays, or Orioles over the next few years. The Yankees rode a dominant 15 years on the tail of Jeter, Pettitte, Posada, and Mo. Guys that were lifers other than a year with the Astros for Pettitte. That era is officially over. You can go out and sign all the big name players you want but it doesn't work anymore. Look at the Blue Jays, Marlins, Angels. The way to long term, sustained winning is by building from the core and complimenting those pieces. As much as the sabermetricians hate to admit it, chemistry is a real thing. You can't just go sign a bunch of aging veterans and expect to win 93+ games. And the Yankees have ARod, Tex, CC on the books being incredibly overpaid. The Yankees needs: 3B, SS, 2B, RF, C, 3 SP, 2 RP, Bench. The Yanks have Mason Williams (who had a disgusting year between A+ and AA), Gary Sanchez, Slade Heathcott (pretty down year, certainly not a big prospect type year) and that's about it. We will see on ManBan how he recovers from TJS. And now, with all of the free agent albatross contracts and underperformance (Crawford, Hamilton, Pujols, Fielder, etc), teams are locking up talent early via extensions, so it's nearly impossible to build a contender without a huge core of talent on the team already. Meanwhile, the Sox are loaded with talent both at the core and in the minors. Bogaerts, Bradley, Cecchini, Betts, Barnes, Ranaudo, Owens, Ball, Swihart. The Sox could easily have 6 top 50 prospects and 9 top 100 prospects. The Rays and Orioles also have significant talent in the minor leagues. Point blank, the Sox, Rays, and Orioles all have better teams than the Yankees right now, and have much better farm systems than the Yankees have. The only advantage the Yankees have over these teams is the ability to spend, but with the trend of the MLB turning from big-name FA signings to locking up talent early, the FA market is as dry as its ever been. Sorry, Jacko, the Yankees are in for a massive, massive demise and a ton of 3rd place or lower finishes over the next 5+ years.

As a side note, I really think that if Doubront can regain some of his velocity, 2013 will be looked back on as a huge development year. He had to learn how to pitch this year without the velocity, had to lean more on command and changing speeds than throwing 96. If he can get back up to 94-96 with his newfound and developed command and understanding if pitching and not just throwing, he could be a huge arm in the rotation.

I've been away for a week so forgive me if I'm repeating some things here. I tried to read through most of the posts but only got to page 6. Here's my 2014 25 man roster: C: Brian McCann (5/60) 1B: Napoli (3/36) 2B: Pedroia SS: Bogaerts 3B: Middlebrooks (give him a shot while Cecchini develops) LF: Nava CF: Bradley RF: Victorino DH: Ortiz Bench: Carp, Ross, Betemit (2/8mm), Gomes SP: Lester Buchholz Lackey Doubront Peavy RP: Uehara, Bailey (non tendered but resigned), Miller, Tazawa, Breslow, Crain (2/12mm), Dempster. Offense: I really don't see many big changes. I'm hearing that the Marlins are pretty interested in Middlebrooks so I can certainly see the Sox at least entertaining offers for him, but it would need to be a solid player in return to give up so early on a 25 HR+ bat. I also think Cecchini comes up and makes some contribution, perhaps displacing Middlebrooks in the process. Pitching, I like Dempster as an insurance plan for the 6th man. I also love having Ranaudo, Barnes, Workman, Webster, and, by the end of the year, Owens as depth. That's a lot of high quality arms waiting to be called up, but with 6 SP options (7 if you count Workman, who showed he is able to give you quality outings), you allow the guys in the minors to develop and not be rushed up until they basically force a decision. As for the lineup, I see something like this: Nava Victorino Pedroia Ortiz Napoli McCann Bogaerts Middlebrooks Bradley Love Nava's OBP, and there are no burners on this team so you're not really sacrificing much by putting Nava lead off like you would if you had an Ellsbury type guy. Vs LHP, I may go: Victorino Bogaerts Pedroia Ortiz Napoli Gomes Bradley Middlebrooks Ross I really like the idea of having Bogaerts hit out of the 2 slot vs LHP.

Tonight is a must win for the Cards. Can't go down 3-2 with 2 left at Fenway. And given their terrible hitting vs LHP, and the way Lester is throwing, it's just not gonna happen for them. Score early. Score often. Bogaerts goes deep tonight

Last night was a must win for the Cards, with Lynn going tonight for them and then Lester going in G5, considering their deficiency against LHP. The Sox will win the next 2. Score early. Score often. Bogaerts goes deep tonight