SoxFanForsyth
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Everything posted by SoxFanForsyth
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I've said for a whole Cecchini should start playing 1B, but now if WMB does get dished you obviously keep him at 3b
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Yeah sorry Pal no chance on that. Dodgers going to require WMB in any package I would assume. Maybe WMB and Dempster with a guy like Britton or Workman if the Dodgers are some money
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Where else does he pitch?? Until he's traded you have to assume he's on the team, and he's certainly not going to be in the rotation. Not sure where else he goes
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Kemp posted a 168 wRC+ in 2011, and in his 'down year' in 2012, posted a 146 wRC+. Granderson posted a 146 wRC+ in his monster season. Yes, Kemp is a much better player, not just a bit better
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I was never arguing whether or not you wanted one or another. I was arguing that you can't lump them together because Kemp is a much better talent than Granderson, so it shouldn't surprise you that I am interested in Kemp and not Grandy.
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Sox loading up on low BB rate guys. Love it. Bullpen of Uehara, Mujica, Miller, Tazawa, Breslow, Badenhop, Dempster seems very strong, particularly with Britton, Workman, and RDLR waiting in the wings. 7th - 8th - 9th of Breslow/Badenhop - Mujica/Taz/Miller - Uehara is really solid.
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Actually, you stated "i don't see how SFF can criticize Granderson then turn around and pine for Kemp. I don't get it." That's what I'm arguing this whole time. Kemp is a much, much better player.
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Kemp has never played 1B professionally in his life. Not sure where you get this notion?
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I've said this whole time that he's an injury risk, but Granderson was also injured last year and saw a big drop off in power because of the location of the injury (forearm/wrist). Those injuries zap power just as much as Kemp's does. What you look at now, with both coming into 2014 healthy, is their talent level when healthy, and I don't think that is even close. Saying that Kemp had an .834 OPS over the past 2 seasons is misleading given that 1. he had a .906 OPS in 2012 and 2. when he came back from his injury in September, he hit .314 with an .870 OPS. Granderson, over the past 2 years, has posted a .788 OPS, and in neither year individually did he sniff an .834 OPS, much less a .906 OPS.
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I think Kemp is a significantly better player than Granderson. Granderson has had 1 season where he posted elite numbers. Kemp's wRC+ has been over 145 in 2 of the last 3 years. In Granderson's best year, he posted a 146 wRC+, which is what Kemp posted in 2012. Over the past 3 years, which encompasses both Granderson and Kemp's best year, Kemp has hit .306/.375/.532, all while playing in a pitchers park division with a home field that is awful to hitters. Over the past 3 years, Granderson has hit .244/.338/.504, while playing in the most left handed hitters park in baseball and a division that loves LHH with Camden and YS. There's a huge difference between their talent levels.
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Well to be fair, my point was that Granderson gives you no OBP, and I certainly don't think you're going to get an .830 OPS from him, considering he's had an OPS over .811 exactly 1 time over the past 5 years.
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Here are Bill James projections for the Red Sox: Player OBP OPS HRs Jacoby Ellsbury .348 .774 12 David Ortiz .384 .914 30 Shane Victorino .336 .751 14 Jonny Gomes .336 .769 16 Stephen Drew .332 .730 12 Dustin Pedroia .371 .814 14 Mike Napoli .348 .819 26 Daniel Nava .377 .812 11 Will Middlebrooks .310 .800 32 Jackie Bradley Jr. .329 .749 15 Xander Bogaerts .357 .807 19
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Good power, OBP ~ .300-.310, Salty-esque.
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Man, I just don't know about WMB. That seems like an aggressive projection but at the same time he hit, what, 32 in 169 games so far? So it's not out of the question by any means, plus he was hurt for a while last year before being demoted. You bring up a good point. A 30 HR bat is a commodity. I'll have to think about it. It's a tough choice. Do you want the empty power, or do you want the very strong OBP with gap power and SB (Cecchini). Both players are question marks right now for development reasons.
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Given the draft pick associated with Drew, I don't think they'd have a problem outbidding, and I also think they'd make the Kemp move after locking up Drew. Not to mention that if they don't get Drew, they can always sign a guy to play 3B while Cecchini develops. Oliver (on FG) projects Cecchini to hit .268/.351/.394, 16 SB. ZiPS projects him at .266/.342/394, 24 SB. A lot of these projection systems believe strongly in Cecchini. If you trade for Kemp, give up WMB, and can't sign Drew, then you can find a filler for 3B pretty easily.
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If you're only getting an .830 OPS from a 40 HR bat, you're getting a ton of empty power. Granderson's OBP over the past 5 years: .327, .324, .364, .319, .317. Overall .333 OBP. Plus a K rate over 28% for each of the past 2 seasons. And his defense is below average. And I didn't even get into the fact that a ton of his HR's would be fly outs at Fenway. Pass on Granderson, for me.
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Agree 100% on the injury prone thoughts. However, I think, once he's injured, it takes him longer than most players to get back on the field. That's where I think he's got a bit of a problem.
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Good point on Dempster. I can certainly see the Sox getting a deal done involving Dempster, Middlebrooks, and a prospect. The prospect would be heavily dependent on the money eaten by the Dodgers. If they take Kemp down to a 15mm AAV deal, I wouldn't be opposed to adding Ranaudo to the mix. If not, it's more of a Lavarnway type deal.
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True, but.... 1. The Sox have Gomes to platoon with him 2. He was destroyed by Dodger Stadium. Look at his splits: Home: .229/.308/.364 Away: .311/.406/.478 If you put him in the right situation, he could be a very good player. Don't have to be a complete platoon, but if you have he and Gomes manning LF, that wouldn't be bad production at all. Get the Dodgers to eat his contract down to 4/42 (currently at 4/68.5), he'd be worth a look
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I agree, I think the package would open the eyes a bit of the Dodgers as well. And let's not forget, Kemp is a 40 SB threat as well. He's actually a 40/40 threat to be honest. It's only a gamble because of his injuries. But when he's healthy, he's a game changing player. If you add Kemp to the OF (playing LF), you can afford to swallow the lumps of Bradley in CF. But, IMO, you need that extra offense from LF to absorb the rookie learning curve. Doesn't necessarily have to be Kemp, but I think we need a bit more offense from the OF if we're handing the reigns to JBJ.
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Side note - Great post, Hitch. Glad to have you on board. Very level headed post, something you don't see very much around here (I'm looking at myself more than anyone)
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I'm hearing the Marlins are also in on Napoli, but I can't imagine that they can match the offer the Sox will be extending, plus even if the offers are close, the Sox have the massive appeal of winning.
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I've been saying this for a while. I can see the Dodgers trading Kemp, opening up a good amount of payroll, and paying Cano. Also - don't sleep on the Tigers, after getting rid of Fielder and all his money, they could turn that into Cano. As a side note for Kemp, I wonder if the Sox sent Cecchini, Ranaudo, and Lavarnway, if the Dodgers would eat the 35mm I mentioned above and the Sox could get Kemp for ~15.5mm/year.
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Just to be clear, I was 100% joking about signing Cano. That was purely out of spite and I am 100% against the Red Sox giving up anything for him. Now, Kemp on the other hand...if the Sox can get the Dodgers to eat around 30-35mm of his deal and get his contract down to 6/90 or 6/95, I would send over a couple prospects for that.
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Now I want the Sox to sign Cano and put him at 3B just because I want Yankees fans to feel this gut punch
