SoxFanForsyth
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Everything posted by SoxFanForsyth
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He's not cherry picking stats. He's showing that Napoli and Santana were similar defensively prior to devoting all time to 1B. And Santana is on a 4 year/30mm contract right now. Perhaps you go Betts and Ranaudo, not Barnes. Either way, you're getting a very good bat at C and likely 1B when Vazquez/Swihart get ready. Napoli is projected to get 4/68, I've recently heard. That's way too much. Santana is a much better player than you're giving him credit for and is on a very team friendly deal.
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You can get him for Betts + Barnes. Ball isn't even tradable right now bc he hasn't been signed for a year. You'd certainly have to pay for him but he's a very good stick with good versatility
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Not sure who mentioned it earlier, but Carlos Santana is a really, really intriguing name. He wouldn't be a LT catcher (likely will move to 1B when Vazquez/Swihart are ready), but he's a very good hitter with an elite OBP and 20+ HR pop. He would also be a really nice bat to have once Ortiz leaves.
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Rosenthal reporting today that the Mariners may go 3 years on Napoli, at which point the Red Sox would likely turn away and pursue other options. Given the emergence of Carp and Nava, the Red Sox could stand pat at 1B if there is a bigger upgrade available in LF.
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If Napoli is going to get 4/68 or 3/52, then go get Corey Hart for ~QO money (1/14mm) and call it a day.
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No thanks to Salty. He had a nice run here but his K's and, improved but still sub par defense can go sign somewhere else. If Hanigan isn't available, explore some trades
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I'll be worried when Hanigan is off the board, particularly since the Yanks have McCann, the Rays just extended Molina for 2 years, and the O's have Weiters. When Hanigan became excess for the Reds, it was pretty commonly thought that it would be the AL East teams bidding for his services. Send over Sean Coyle or Kolbrin Vitek and call it a day.
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Why would you want to do that?? It makes no sense to me. If they're not a part of the future, and you're not developing them to be a catcher for your team for years to come, why would you put that strain on the entire pitching staff when you can acquire an elite defensive catcher at a low cost who provides elite OBP for the C position?
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Your weighting structure is a bit deceiving IMO. What I'm trying to say is that offense up the middle is scarce because of the reliance on defense. It's rare that a player has the defensive ability to play everyday at a position up the middle, and produce offensively at the rate that Bogaerts or Pedroia can.
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I agree that you need to hand the reins to a young catcher. 100% agree with that. What I don't agree with is that it's Butler or Lavarnway. If you're going to hand the reins to someone, it's going to be to Vazquez in 2015 or Swihart in 2016. Hanigan and Ross act as a stop gap. They're not long term solutions. This year is not the year for a long term solution at C. The Sox LT solutions to C are starting the year in AAA (Vaz) and AA (Swihart). Just like the Sox signed JD Drew to be a bridge to Bogaerts, that's exactly what Hanigan is going to be for Vazquez and Swihart. Hanigan has caught 185 games over the past 2 seasons. That's a ton. He' K's at a rate of 10-12% and pushes an OBP north of .360, all while playing elite defense. I don't know why you don't like the idea of him and Ross splitting duties 2/3 or 3/5 to 1/3 or 2/5. Maybe we just disagree on who the future C is.
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This doesn't make sense because this assumes that, if necessary, David Ross can be an everyday catcher. He has no chance at that, certainly not now with his concussion issues.
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How do you figure?? If teams say "I'll take a lighter hitting player at SS" then guys who can hit are valued even higher. League average wRC+ for 1B: 110 League average wRC+ for SS: 85 So if you've got a player in Bogaerts who plays SS and posts a 130 wRC+ next year, is he more or less valuable at SS than 1B? It's not taking away his value. It's very much adding to it because he represents a market inefficiency - a SS that is a very good hitter.
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1 more year of development. Sox hope his breakout continues, he becomes a top 50 prospect and the Sox deal him for an area of need.
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C I agree with. SS, 2B, and CF should all be 55% defense. The fact that you get gold glove caliber D from Pedroia along with strong offensive numbers is why he's so good and gives the Sox such a competitive advantage at the position. It's also why Bogaerts is such a highly rated prospect. That kind of offense doesn't come from those positions very often. Another reason why Mookie Betts is a valuable prospect.
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Yeah I worded that oddly. I should have said "or another acquisition via trade". I just mean I think they stay out of the FA market in terms of C.
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IMO, the Sox will end up with either Hanigan or an acquisition via trade. I really think they land Hanigan, though.
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I think Lavarnway and Butler are being overvalued. I think Vazquez and Swihart are legit prospects with a ton of upside. The Sox farm system has a good chance to have 9 or 10 guys in the top 100 listings, with Bogaerts, Bradley, Cecchini, Barnes, Ranaudo, Owens, Ball, Swihart, Betts, & Webster. This is as strong of a farm system as I can remember the Sox having in a very, very long time. All of these guys, outside of Ball, will be starting 2014 in AA or AAA, too.
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Didn't specify, but why would we DFA Ross? Not sure I see the logic in that. Lavarnway/Butler aren't going anywhere unless the Sox trade one of them, so if Ross or Hanigan gets hurt, you've got depth. Ross is signed for 2014 already, so I'm not sure I understand DFA'ing him.
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This is what everyone has been trying to say. Go with Ross and Hanigan. They're not redundant because Ross cannot play more than 55-65 games. Hanigan can play the other 95-105 games. Both are excellent defensive catchers. Plain and simple, there's a difference between having a rookie SS and CF, and then having a rookie C who impacts the pitching staff. When you call up a rookie catcher, you don't play him 105 games. You play him in about 55 games so he can get used to the pitching staff. It's not like other positions. He needs to build a relationship with the pitchers. It's more than just throwing fingers down. There's a rhythm that pitchers get into during a game that is very dependent on the relationship they have with their catcher.
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+ 1
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He has never gone through the grind of a 162 game MLB season. He has never had the MLB pitchers have consistent looks at him and figured out holes in his swing. He has never gone through a stretch where he had to dig himself out, and all the while that he isn't, he's facing either a demotion or he's letting down 35k fans a night. Excelling in a few games in the post season certainly helps. But let's not overvalue those. I'm 100% sure Bogaerts should be your 2014 starting SS, but to suggest that he won't have some rookie lumps to swallow, especially defensively, is silly. And that goes for all 4 of those guys in various ways.
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I never called Hanigan a rookie. I called butler/Lav, Bogaerts, and JBJ rookies. And they all are. Hanigan would help alleviate the reliance on the rookies.
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Assuming Drew doesn't resign, you're not only relying on 3 rookies, but you're relying on 3 rookies on 3 of the most important defensive positions in the game (C, SS, CF). Not sure the Sox trust Butler or Lavarnway, either. Hanigan would be a solid upgrade over any of those guys. A combo of Hanigan and Ross would be a very strong defensive C duo.
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Brentz's value is pretty low right now but I still agree, you could get Hanigan for less than that. Hanigan has virtually zero pop but I would love to have a C with a 10-12% K rate and a .360+ OBP. Even without the pop. I think the fact that Hanigan is only 1 year out is appealing to the Sox. Vazquez will start the year in AAA (he got called up at the very end of last year). So he probably is only 1 year out from being the starting C. He's a lot like Hanigan but with better pop.
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Caught 3 (!!!!) foul balls this year. And went to G1 of the WS! 2013 has been outrageously good thus far
