SoxFanForsyth

f*** Safeco.

6 or 7?? You think the Mariners offense in Safeco is better than the Braves offense in Fenway??

That ball that Gonzo hit to the left center gap yesterday was absolutely crushed. A 385 foot blast the opposite way should be gone anywhere.

Does everyone realize that the Red Sox are 21-35 when Middlebrooks DOESN'T get an RBI!?!?

Middlebrooks gets locked in tonight, I'll go ahead and call that.

Price just got taken out of the Rays game with a "back issue"

Great read from Fangraphs.com on Morales, and why what he's been doing as a starter may be for real. Franklin Morales: Back, For The First Time by Paul Swydan - June 29, 2012 When the Red Sox acquired Franklin Morales from the Rockies last season, no one paid much attention. At the time of the deal, he hadn’t pitched in four days, and hadn’t recorded an out in seven. When he began his Red Sox career by allowing four runs in three innings in his first two outings, there was similarly no reason for Red Sox nation to sit up and take notice — he was just another re-tread lefty that the team would have to cycle through now that Hideki Okajima had turned back into a pumpkin. Fast forward one year though, and Morales is catching everyone’s attention, as — for the moment — he is once again impressing as a starter. The difference is that this time, there is reason to believe it’s for real. Last night against the Mariners, Morales put up what was, by game score, tied for the second-best start of 2012 by a Red Sox starter, along with Josh Beckett’s outing on May 15th (coincidentally, or perhaps not, also against Seattle). It was also the best start of his still-young career, by either game score (76) or WPA (.40). Rockies’ fans with long memories will note that we have seen these results before from Morales. In the 2007 stretch run, Morales put together a three-start stretch in September where he was similarly unhittable. Against the Phillies, Marlins and Padres, he threw 17 scoreless innings, allowing just seven hits, and striking out 15 batters against just five walks. He threw 61% of his pitches for strikes. The mastery did not last, however. Morales teetered on the edge of effective and not effective in his last regular-season outing and two postseason outings before getting absolutely firebombed by the Red Sox in Game 1 of the 2007 World Series, an outing in which he allowed seven runs in 2/3 of an inning in relief of starter Jeff Francis. But even those three starts don’t hold a candle to his last three. In his three most recent outings, he has struck out 24 batters against just three walks over 18 innings. He has thrown 72% of his pitches for strikes, and he has generated more ground balls as well. Combine those three outings with his two long-relief stints at the beginning of the month, and you have a guy who has struck out 31 and walked just three this month. That’s a 10.33 K/BB, and it is has been bettered this month by only three pitchers. And none of them are also rocking a K/9 higher than 9.0 like Morales is. Looking at his swing ratios, it’s clear that in his small sample of innings this season, Morales has improved dramatically. But rather than look at the numbers themselves, let’s look at them in comparison to league average: Year O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% Contact% F-Strike% SwStr% 2007 Below Below Below Below Below Below 2008 Below Below Below Below Below Below 2009 Below Below Below Above Below Above 2010 Below Above Below Below Below Below 2011 Below Above Below Above Above Above 2012 Above Above Above Above Above Above Now, there may be noise in those numbers. After all, Morales has never thrown 50 innings in a season. But across the board this year, he is starting with strike one more frequently, and is getting more swings and less contact. His 35.1% O-Swing% this season ranks seventh in the game among those with at least 40 innings pitched, and his 11.7% SwStr% is tied for tenth. Breaking down his stats into splits is likely folly given the extremely small samples, but while all of his seasons contain small samples, this is the only season in which he’s been effective against right-handed pitching. His 4.00 K/BB against righties this season dwarfs his career 1.51 mark. His 2.82 FIP against righties is also easily a career best. It seems that Morales is mixing up his pitches a bit better as well. In scanning data from Pitchf/x, Brooks Baseball and Texas Leaguers, Morales is throwing his four-seam fastball less and using his two-seam fastball/sinker, curveball and changeup/splitter much more frequently than he has in the past. The two-seamer in particular is a pitch that he is featuring more, and he is able to get more movement on it than his four-seam fastball while still generating the same velocity. More movement with the same velocity is not something you see very often, and so far, the results for Morales have been lethal. There is no telling what will come next for Morales. If he was throwing the same mix of pitches and generating the same below-average number of swings and misses, it would be easy to discount these three starts. After all, his opponents were the Cubs, Braves and Mariners, which is a far cry from offensive juggernauts like the Rangers, Cardinals and Yankees. But he’s not doing that — he is throwing different pitches, and getting different results, and they back up the great bottom-line numbers he has put up. At 1.2 WAR, this has already been Morales’ best season, and we haven’t even reached the half-way mark. Ever since he flamed out in Colorado, few have paid Morales any mind, but his performance this past month, combined with Josh Beckett’s impending return, has spurred Boston manager Bobby Valentine to institute a six-man rotation until the All-Star break. When Clay Buchholz returns, Morales could find himself the sixth-man in a five-man rotation. But right now, for the first time, he is harnessing his stuff like it was always imagined he would. Franklin Morales has achieved success in a Major League uniform before, but should he remain in the Red Sox rotation, this may be the first time that he has truly arrived.

Ugh. So stupid of him to go to the charity event and drink water after he lost a whole THREE POUNDS from being in the hospital. What a moron. Man, just throwing money away. To be honest with you, I don't know how he's got the energy to open his eyes. He's gotta be fatigued and exhausted just from blinking all day.

I thought Elslbury's career was over when he got hurt because he's soft, and Yaz would have played through it. And I thought Crawford's career was over last May when he had a slow start?

Well he also had Germano, who has posted a 2.60 ERA in Pawtucket over 15 starts so far, and that was actually the player I thought they'd bring up to fill in. Plus, they're actually going with a 6 man rotation now, and Buchholz isn't even back. So they had at least 2 alternatives, although I'm not sure Cook was ready quite yet. Either way - I remember hearing on the radio how V was basically begging Cherington to have Morales start. Turns out, so far at least, V was right.

Thus far, Crawford is 0-2 with a walk, Ellsbury is 1-2 with a walk and an RBI double in todays game. Both Crawford and Ellsbury have K'd once. Season over.

Yeah. He would need to start warming up in the 3rd inning to pitch in a game that went into extras.

You got it.

Excellent, excellent point. And yes. People won't give Theo credit for anything. Morales being with the Red Sox is a credit to Theo. Morales starting right now is a credit to Valentine.

Trade, probably. Get about the same return from him as you got from Youk, but eat less salary.

Yup, I agree. Almost every starting pitcher will say something along the lines of "There are 5 games where your stuff can't be beat, 5 games where your stuff can't win, and the other 20 starts where you make your season." We ran into Felix in one of those 5 that he can't be beat. That was easily the best I've ever seen Felix. Unreal. Go win the next 3.

I never said we don't need another arm. Chill out man. All I said was that the emergence of Morales is big because, potentially, it doesn't force the Red Sox to concede the division in the last series because they don't have confidence in a #4 or #5 starter. They can go after the division in the final series with their 1-2-3 starters and feel confident that, if they don't win the division, they can go into a play in game with their #4 starter and feel very confident about winning. I still very much think they need another arm, Garza or Grienke. Jayson Stark reported today that the Cubs are looking for 2 controllable players with high upside. So, would you go Lavarnway + Kalish for Garza? Or Lavarnway + Cecchini? The emergence of Salty makes Lavarnway expendable, IMO. He definitely fits the bill as a high upside, controllable player. You go into the 2nd half of the season with a rotation of Lester Beckett Buchholz Garza Morales/Doubront, and you have to feel pretty comfortable with that.

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying it could turn out to be one of his best moves. He just didn't realize it at the time. Whether or not he thought of Morales as a SP or not, who knows, probably not. But, at the same time, he made the move, and it's turning out to be a great acquisition. He traded low-6-figure cash and a PTBNL, which I still don't know who it was, obviously nobody good, for a guy who was ranked as high as the #8 prospect in baseball just a couple years ago. So, he got a young (25 when acquired), very high ceiling guy for nothing. Like I said, he almost certainly saw Morales as a LH specialist out of the bullpen, but regardless, if he comes out and becomes a top of the rotation starter, you look back and say "Wow. We really stole him from the Rox". So, anyone would say "Wow that was a fantastic trade for the Red Sox". I guess you could say it would be one of the better moves made during the Theo era. Would that be better for your Theo-hating heart?

Here's the thing about finding a guy like Franklin Morales. Fast forward to late September/early October, when you're still trying to win the division, while a team like the Angels or Rays are setting up their SP for the 1 game playoff. Now you can go with a Lester - Beckett - Buchholz in the final 3 of the season and feel very comfortable going into a play in game with a guy like Franklin Morales throwing for you. This could be one of Theo's best moves.

Young kid, those are the lumps you take. Rookies are overly anxious in big situations. V has no excuse to have Atchison in there.

Well I thought we'd go 6-1 on this road trip, and tonight's game was the one I thought we'd lose, so I guess we're on track. Still, though. That freaking blows. Give the Mariners and Jack Z the keys to the farm and get Felix, please.

Atchison had absolutely no business being in this game. None whatsoever. You go with Padilla there. And it's not even close.

Why Atchison?? WHY?!?!?