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SoxFanForsyth

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Everything posted by SoxFanForsyth

  1. SoxFanForsyth
    When there are projections for over 600 major league players, you certainly cannot just look at one and say "ok, no dice".
  2. SoxFanForsyth
    Are you somehow missing his 2nd post that didn't quote Jackso? Doesn't matter. We got it cleared up. Certainly not worth any kind of argument.
  3. SoxFanForsyth
    I did read. You didn't. I saw his post saying James didn't make these projections. Then I saw two posts by me. Then I saw another post by him saying James doesn't make these projections. What am I missing? Or did you miss it?
  4. SoxFanForsyth
    You're just splitting hairs. It's his formula, published on Fangraphs.
  5. SoxFanForsyth
    Been really quiet lately. Too quiet almost. Not even any smoke or rumors.
  6. SoxFanForsyth
    As a side note, he also has our pen looking pretty strong. Bailey: 36 saves, 2.81 ERA Tazawa: 65 IP, 2.49 ERA Uehara: 40 IP, 2.25 ERA Bard: 67 IP, 3.63 ERA Aceves:88 IP, 3.68 ERA Breslow: 62 IP, 3.19 ERA Melancon: 57 IP, 3.47 ERA Give me that pen all freaking day please.
  7. SoxFanForsyth
    Napoli playing almost exclusively 1B rather than catching 65 games a year? Yeah I think he will be playing 150. And Buch threw 189.1 IP in 2012. Man. How outrageous for James to predict him to get one more DP ball!! James is a homer!!!111! Not like he does this exclusively for the Sox, either. He does it for every player.
  8. SoxFanForsyth
    Thought this deserved its own thread. Bill James projections are up on Fangraphs. He actually really likes the Red Sox rotation right now, with 3 of the SP going over 200 IP (Lackey, Doubront, Lester) and Buch going 190. Doubie projects a 3.70 era, Lester a 3.71, Buchholz a 3.64, and Lackey a 4.05. Offensively, the team looks good. Middlebrooks is projected at .277, .806 OPS, 29 HR, 99 RBI. Pedroia has a bounce back season, .296/.367/.459, 17 HR. Ellsbury hits 15 HR, .294/.346/.436, 37 SB Ortiz projects at .283/.386/.533, 32 HR, 103 RBI Lavarnway projects to have a solid rookie season. .261/.335/.435, 16 HR, 66 RBI (115 G) As for the acquisitions - Napoli projects at .248/.350/.469, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 127 G. Although I see Napoli more as a 150 game player, which would give him 34 HR, 89 HR. Victorino: .269/.338/.418, 14 HR, 29 2B, 7 3B, 29 SB, 85 R.
  9. SoxFanForsyth
    On a side note, but still on James projections, he has Middlebrooks line as .277/.316/.490, 29 HR, 99 RBI. Give me that line from my 25 year old 3B any day of the week please. That's over 565 PA. If he clips the 600 PA mark, he'll be at 31 HR/105RBI.
  10. SoxFanForsyth
    Still, as a 22 year old he posted a 3.71 ERA in 10 starts. His average velocity (per Brooks) is 96.57. Thats freaking heat. Given, it was a SSS, but in his 10 starts his xFIP was 3.55. As Keith Law put it, if he can just have an average slider (fix his arm slot, which shouldn't be difficult), this kid has an ace ceiling.
  11. SoxFanForsyth
    Found this interesting. Here are Bill James projections for the Sox pitching in 2013: Jon Lester: 211 IP, 3.72 ERA Clay Buchholz: 190 IP, 3.64 ERA Felix Doubront: 201 IP, 3.70 ERA John Lackey: 209 IP, 4.05 ERA According to James, the Sox pitching is about a mid-3's ERA guy away from being a very good rotation. It's interesting because his predictions are typically very conservative IMO.
  12. SoxFanForsyth
    High 90's in the 7th inning as a starting pitcher. That's extremely, extremely rare.
  13. SoxFanForsyth
    That'd be fine with me. I like Ross a lot. In terms of calling a game, he reminds me of Varitek. Except he can throw people out. And hit.
  14. SoxFanForsyth
    I know that this is a "as of right now" lineup, but I really think the Sox hate Salty's defense, specifically his pitch calling and framing. I don't buy into CERA very often, but nearly all of our pitchers have just been awful with Salty. All this to say, I think Lavarnway starts at C over Salty. At least we'll get some damn OBP out of that position. I do agree, though, we need another LHH in this lineup.
  15. SoxFanForsyth
    De La Rosa anyone?
  16. SoxFanForsyth
    Maybe 08-09 Span, when he had an OBP in the high .380's, low .390's. Not a 2010-2012, when he had a combined .334 OBP.
  17. SoxFanForsyth
    If we stand pat on the SP front, this is officially an absolute punt of a season. I think the Sox can be very competitive for the AL East with 1-2 SP additions. We finally have prospect-filled SP depth, with De La Rosa, Workman, Webster, Hernandez, and Wright. None of those, outside of De La Rosa, should be in the rotation this year. But they're solid options as the #6-10 starters. The thing is, I think they make 1 move on the FA front (Edwin Jackson?) and 1 big move on the trade market (Not sure who, but trades happen so fast it's impossible to predict).
  18. SoxFanForsyth
    Make that 4 of us! Wow. Finally. A common enemy. Ryan Dempster. Give me De La Rosa and Chris Hernandez over Dempster and Lohse all day everyday.
  19. SoxFanForsyth
    I think they can get Bauer for a non SS. I would really like to see them move on him, but we will see. The good thing about Farrell is that he gives an intimidating presence, as described by Lester and Buch. That may be the exact presence that Bauer needs to reach his potential.
  20. SoxFanForsyth
    My guess is that the sox make a major acquisition via a trade. I think it's going to make massive waves because its going to be for someone who nobody ever thought would be available. Whether its for Gerrit Cole, perhaps Trevor Bauer, a 3 way deal for David Price, blow away the Dodgers for Clayton Kershaw, I'm not sure, but I'll tell you what, they're going to land a monster pitcher.
  21. SoxFanForsyth
    Another side note of Victorino: He has played 1,133 innings in RF and has a career UZR/150 of 19.5 in RF. His career UZR/150 in CF (6,572 innings) is 3.1. All of this to say that his war will only increase when he is moved to RF, as WAR is largely dependent on UZR. As a bit of a comp, or more just to show how much it affects war, see Brett Gardner. In 2011, Gardner hit .259/.345/.369, wRC+ of 86, wOBA of .310, UZR of 25.8, WAR 5.2. You put a 19.5 UZR on Victorino and he's actually a 4.5-5.0 WAR player on a regular basis.
  22. SoxFanForsyth
    2011-2012: Victorino WAR: 9.2 J Upton WAR: 8.9 Hamilton WAR: 8.4 I'm just saying. The talk about how bad the Victorino signing was is completely and utterly out of hand. He's been more valuable the past 2 seasons combined than a lot of guys who people would pay a lot for, in terms of prospects or dollars.
  23. SoxFanForsyth
    Player A: 2011 WAR 5.9, 2012 WAR 3.3 Player B: 2011 WAR 5.6, 2012 WAR 2.0 Player A = Victorino Player B = Napoli It's funny that people accept the Napoli signing much more favorably than the Victorino signing.
  24. SoxFanForsyth
    Casey Stern said it best about the Sox offseason. They've got a ton of ornaments, but we're still waiting for the tree.
  25. SoxFanForsyth
    If the Yankees get Hamilton, kiss Cano goodbye. With Hamilton and Cano, the Yanks will be left (in 2014) with CC, Hamilton, Cano, Tex, and ARod making $125mm. They will have CC - Nova - Phelps in their rotation. They'll have no SS. They'll have no 3B for around 65-70 games. Not gonna happen with the $189mm cap.
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