Palodios
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Everything posted by Palodios
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Marahiro Tanaka And Sox Starting Rotation.
Palodios replied to marklmw's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
They're going to add another arm this year, and I have a hunch that their young pitching might have a good year in 2011. Their real concern for them after 2014 is going to be replacing Jeter and Robertson in an already weak infield and bullpen. -
Gardner didn't get to the big leagues till 2008 -- he probably was focusing on doing the things he was best at in the minors, and added some minor power later on. In his first long season in the majors, he played 100 games and hit 3, which probably scales to 5-6 if he played the full season. The next few seasons he hit 5, 7, 8. You're pulling nothing out of nothing here.
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Marahiro Tanaka And Sox Starting Rotation.
Palodios replied to marklmw's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
If Tanaka is posted in 2013, I completely agree with you. If he is posted in 2014, he is a very good fit for the Red Sox. -
Ellsbury in 2011 -- 32 HR. Ellsbury in the rest of his career -- 33 HR. He averages 13 HR per 150 games, or 8 HR per 150 if you don't include his 2011 season. Moving from 8 HR a year to 20 seems like a jump to me.
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Infante also off the board. What an odd offseason for the yanks.
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I just looked it up, and sure enough, they lose their compensation draft picks. What a painful way to ruin your team's future.
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He's 38 now, and signed for another year. What will buying out his age 40 or 41 years do for the Red Sox, besides massage his ego? They could just as easily keep him another, see if he stays healthy, and offer him a qualifying offer. Would anyone really want to outbid the Red Sox AND give away a 1st rounder for a 40 year old who doesn't play a position? Even with an insane postseason, the whole idea of giving him more years when he really doesn't have that much leverage seems silly.
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Ortiz's agent negotiating a longer deal. I hope it is for lower AAV...
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Boone Logan -> Rockies. Another crazy deal at 3/15, but I'm sure they'll miss his career .591 OPS against lefties. He's definitely another guy like Hughes who will benefit from a change of scenery... 4.22 ERA at Yankee Stadium and 2.00 ERA away in 2013.
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When a player makes as little contact as those two guys do, and have sub .300 OBPs, that's the problem.
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There is enough versatility there that his value is well beyond SS. If Drew gets hurt, XB sticks at SS, Middlebrooks at 3B. If Pedroia gets hurt, Drew or X moves over to 2B. If Middlebrooks gets hurt, XB to 3B, Drew at SS. If Napoli gets hurt, move WMB to 1B, XB to 3B. Some guys will have to play slightly out of position, but there will be plenty of options.
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By all means, I intended to show that Middlebrooks is similar to Trumbo in many ways... good and bad. Lots of power, lots of strikeouts, poor OBP. We may be saying things like "If only he could fix that hole in his swing" for years, but the power is hard to argue, especially because he's at 3B, and not 1B.
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Seems like the top talent pitching market doesn't want to wait on Tanaka. Garza and Arroyo are both rumored to sign this week.
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Middlbrooks in 167 career games -- .254 .294 .462 .756 with 32 HR, 168 strikeouts. Trumbo in 159 games last year -- .250 .299 .469 .768 with 34 HR, 184 strikeouts. Very similar numbers from these two guys.
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This would be more concerning to me if he didn't have such a good playoff run. Good pitching always beats good hitting, and yet he had a huge postseason -- a .900 OPS, 9 runs, 9 hits and 6 walks. He didn't seem to have much trouble with top talent major league pitching.
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If they were concerned with Ellsbury's health, it seems silly to pay him insane money, and have a guy waiting behind him if injured.
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Don't forget that Hart played 0 games in 2013.
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While I mostly agree with this, I think that the big factor is years. They have no problem paying the AAV, but the out-of-prime years kill teams. I wouldn't be surprised if they go after someone like Tanaka though -- years 26-33 of a player is significantly more valuable than years 33-40.
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This is a pearl of wisdom.
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The very important thing to note here is that the Cubs don't want to just win 80-90 games and maybe lose in the wildcard game. That's not the goal here. Theo wants to break another curse, and create a legacy for himself that cements himself at the very top of the list of best baseball execs ever.
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Two years, not three. In that time, payroll has dropped about 40 million. The cubs are liquidizing assets, dumping bad contracts, stockpiling talent and waiting. I would not be surprised if profits are up because of their lower payrolls. When their young talent explodes, they'll have tons of money for a 2012 Red Sox type offseason where they get short-term deals on free agents to build their team to supplement their young core, and put themselves in a position to succeed for many years ahead. It seems very well planned to me, although significantly slower than a fan like you might tolerate.
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The Yankees going hard after Masterson. And we thought he had problems against lefties before !
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Dirtdog I proposed a similar scenario with Peavy and Gardner and was crucified. Ichiro seems great but the lefthandedness hurts him here.
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Marahiro Tanaka And Sox Starting Rotation.
Palodios replied to marklmw's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Actually, you're completely right. The Red Sox will be losing Dempster and Peavy, Lackey's salary and possibly Lester though he seems like he wants to stick around. Dempster, Peavy and Lackey's combined salary would be 43 million, plenty to put back into the rotation. Maybe owners will cool down a bit after one year away from huge spending and tv revenue. Look at the possible 2015 Rotation Lester Lackey Buchholz Tanaka Doubront Owens/Barnes/Ranaudo/Webster will also go a long way in Pawtucket I'd imagine. -
Epstein has been stockpiling top-tier young talent in a big big way. You didn't even mention top international prospect Eloy Jimenez, or the #4 pick in the draft next year, or Jorge Soler. They also snagged Mike Olt last year from the Rangers. Theo isn't just picking up young guys who might be good, he's picking up young guys who might be stars. The Cubs could go out there and spend 500 million on new players, but it wouldn't solve their main problem -- that they don't have a solid core to work with. No Pedro, Nomar etc. He needs to build that team completely from the ground up, and he is doing it the right way so far.
