Palodios

I'm surprised you're not familiar with how cots works. They don't factor in the current contracts of arbitration eligible players, or current minimum value contracts. The 100 million there does not include Ellsbury/Okajima/Papelbon/Bard etc. Add them up if you want.

I do like most of your numbers--some a bit more than my own--but I think there are two major oversights that should contribute to the discussion. Arbitration is going to be well over 10 million. Papelbon is due for a 20% raise, so he alone will make around 11 million. Despite what's best for the team-- there is no indication that they will be non-tendering him. I have not found a player with a similar skill set to Ellsbury, but I could see him costing around 5 million. Based on what I've read-- Buchholz is not eligible for super two status, but the FO may consider giving him a contract now. Otherwise, Buch, Lowrie, Doubront, Bowden, Bard and Atchison should total 3ish. So arbitration/ league minimum contracts should cost 19 million. Also--Someone is going to be willing to overbid for atleast one of the big money guys. My initial estimates were very liberal, but that's simply because if the Sox want them, they are going to be the ones overbidding. Selling Cameron for 7.25 million is unrealistic. Selling him at 3-5 million is doable. You sounded skeptical on getting full returns for him, and I think that considering his injuries, age, declining defense, and the fact that the Sox overbid on him, losing some money on him should be expected.

I think I've gone to lengths to show that Ortiz is not worth the 12.5. Between our pile of aging, bad defensive sluggers, Burrell, Abreu, Matsui, Guerrero, Dunn, Dye, Delgado... how many have been making significantly more than 8 million a year? The best was 28 year old Dunn for a 2/20. Hell, even Ken Griffey JR. hasn't made more than 10 million per year since 2002, and just retired this year. At best they should offer Ortiz a 1/8 contract with a vesting option for 2012-- that's all he's worth right now. Yes, losing Ortiz/Beltre and VMart will hurt a lot, but odds are, they're retaining atleast one of them, and pick up one or two from Crawford/Werth/Dunn/Konerko. Even considering the guys they're losing, they still have five or six strong offensive pieces with a ton of money to spend, and remember that they made sure to hold onto their trade chips this trading deadline, so they may make a very different splash this offseason.

For any other game I'd agree, but a Sox Yankee game? That's just bad mojo.

I said 8 million.

Err... where do you get a 50% increase in pay? There is a difference of 12.5% here. Abreu's steals, consistency, and fielding is worth .030 points in OPS and 1 million, I think that's completely reasonable. And I underline that its not necessarily fielding, but availability to both leagues that raise Abreu's market value.

His combined OPS has been less, but by how much? I don't have exact numbers, but by the look of it, one has averaged a .850 OPS and the other has average an .820 OPS. Abreu has also played 150+ games every year since 1997, which says a lot. Plus he plays right field, and thus is valuable to 30 teams instead of just 14(not to mention that he sits for so many NL games). He also has had a much higher OBP and 20+ steals every season. Is all of that worth .030 points in OPS? Considering that on two occasions in the last two years, Ortiz has played so badly that it made sense to dump his salary, I really don't see him being worth 2/18.

You're right-- I meant Burell on the 2/16, but he was .880 to .900 the seasons prior, and several years younger. Abreu isn't a slouch either and hasn't gotten great money from the angels either. These guys arent really that far away in production from Ortiz-- sure he hits a few more home runs, but its all about risk.

Over the last few years, these guys generally get around that price range. Abreu got a 2/16 with Tampa after consistently hitting around that .880 line for a few years. Giambi got a 4 million after he left New York. Jermaine Dye got shafted because he wanted too much.

The price for non-fielding hitters with big performance risks is surprisingly low. Look at Guerrero-- he was around the 30 HR 100 RBI range for a decade, and one bad season and he struggled to get a 5.5 million dollar contract. Matsui came off a year with 28 HR and 90 RBI in 2009 to make 6 million this year. Ortiz is a better hitter than those guys, but not enough to warrant twice their salary. He's 35 years old-- with questions about his age-- steroid allegations, platoon numbers, early season slumps and his size are all problems. Plus, he's worthless to NL teams. Not to mention Adam Dunn, who atleast played a position, was 28 years old with 40/100 numbers, and going into his last contract and still only got 2/20.

Dipre, normally you give a very good argument, so I'm just a little surprised at your opinion on this one. From what you're saying, it seems like you don't see any room for improvement in a player who is essentially just finishing his rookie season, and has seen clear decline in his stats due to injury.

People can argue about the value of the win statistic all they'd like, but with closers nothing matters besides saves and blown saves. 8 BS is not worth 11 million a year, and that is no discussion, it is a fact.

While I agree that the FO is not smart enough to drop Papelbon while they're ahead, how is he any different than Okajima? Ever since he lost his elite pitch-- the okie-dokie or whatever that was, between his skill set, and the training program they gave him, he hasn't regained quality, and based on how the pitching staff was handled this year, I don't see any significant improvement from Papelbon next year worth spending 11 million on him.

I just want to put this into perspective. Okajima had some good seasons, but has a 4.63 ERA with 4 losses this season for 3 million and we want to let him go. Papelbon had some good seasons, but has a 4.02 ERA with 6 losses this season for 9 million, and some people want to keep him.

The Padres have 1.1 million dollars committed to 2011. That's insane.

My additions Scott Schoenweiss Jeremy Hermida Angel Sanchez Boof Bonser Hideki Okajima Gustavo Molina

Wasn't the dislocated disc in his neck? Either way, he's a fighter, and I have a hard time seeing them benching him after how hard he played this year regardless of his injuries-- unless ofcourse those injuries are what do the benching.

They're spending 100 million on 2011 as of now, 116 with Ellsbury/Papelbon. They had a huge decrease in fanfare this year, and have concerns about losing their sellout record-- which once gone, is probably not coming back until the next championship run, or a decrease in ticket prices. Sure they might have the money for three massive contracts, but I seriously doubt it.

"It's pretty easy from my standpoint. You can't really do anything for a while. It will just come up and the decisions will have to be made when they come. But the main thing is to finish up these last games. I don't dread the future as far as I think I'm in a pretty good place to make decisions. Whatever comes will come, and I'm in a good place no matter what happens. I feel like it's been a good run here and if it continues, it continues, and if it doesn't, it doesn't." http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=5603956&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines Sounds like he's willing to consider other options to me.

I don't honestly think the Red Sox have that much money available. Its going to be 40-50/year to sign Vmart/Beltre/ an elite outfielder. Plus 10-20 to fix the bullpen, unless they trade Papelbon. As far as Lowrie-- his very first season in the majors, he fluctuated between .770 and .870 for most of the season until his wrist injury. In 2009 he was crushing the ball in ST before being sidelined. In 2010, he has a .877 OPS despite being hurt for two full seasons prior. Considering he's still young and considering his bumps in the road and that he's played only around one full season-- he definitely has a lot of room to improve. I don't see any reason why .800 would be out of the question, in the highly hypothetical situation where he stays healthy.