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Imperial59

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Everything posted by Imperial59

  1. Imperial59
    I've already named his BABIP, WHIP and LOB% as unsustainable stats.
  2. Imperial59
    I just want to have a discussion without snarkiness or personal attacks. If that makes me a troll, then so be it.
  3. Imperial59
    I'm a Sox fan, and I'd say it's a toss up. It's very difficult to make a convincing argument for either one using reliable sample sizes, objective statistics or scouting reports.
  4. Imperial59
    You can't use just 1 stat to make an accurate assessment of pitchers. And you certainly can't use half a year as a sample size and claim it's reliable to judge the ability of pitchers. Even the best pitchers have rough half years (Lackey had a 4.93 ERA in the first half of last year) and even bad pitchers can have great half years (Pineiro had a 3.20 ERA in the first half of last year).
  5. Imperial59
    So when are we going to stop making personal, snarky remarks and just discuss baseball again? I thought we were past this.
  6. Imperial59
    I agree and I'm a Sox fan. Objectively, it's very difficult to make a case that either one of them are much of a sure thing for next year.
  7. Imperial59
    I'm not disagreeing with any of that. But like I've said, I don't think the small sample sizes that we have from both pitchers are enough to judge their overall ability. And Chamberlain had a 2.76 ERA last year as a starter. I don't see how that's a downward trend for 2 years unless you thought it was realistic for him to reproduce a sub 0.50 ERA in any kind of extended sample size. I'm a Red Sox fan, so if anything I'm biased towards them. But I don't believe there's any objective reason to claim that either Buchholz or Chamberlain are significantly more likely to be more reliable than the other next year. In my opinion, both have great stuff, both have great potential and both have control problems (Buchholz had a 1.38 WHIP last year, a low BABIP and an ugly FIP). I also agree with Spud, that both of them seem to have mental... limitations.
  8. Imperial59
    OK, fair enough. Can we please cut out the personal/snarky stuff now? I don't consider half a season to be a reliable sample size to any player's abilities. And as a general rule, the largest sample size available is typically the most accurate. So the most accurate sample sizes that we have so far have Chamberlain with a 4.18 ERA in 221.2 innings as an MLB starter and Buccholz with a 4.97 ERA in 186.2 innings as a starter. That's all we can go by objectively so far. Can you make an objective case for Buchholz being more of a "sure thing" next year? Because if there was a Red Sox player who had a career ERA that was significantly lower than a Yankees player, and the Red Sox player was a year younger and has pitched more as a starter in the majors, I find it hard to believe that you would claim the Yankees player was more of a sure thing based on half a season in which the Yankees player was better than the Red Sox player.
  9. Imperial59
  10. Imperial59
    I'm well aware that there's more to the comparison of the two pitchers than career ERA. But both Chamberlain and Buchholz have great stuff. I don't see how that's a valid argument that Buchholz is more of a "sure thing".
  11. Imperial59
    Baiting attempt denied lol. I just wanted to have a normal baseball discussion without making it personal. Think we do that? Can you please demonstrate how Chamberlain is less of a sure thing considering that he has a much better career ERA as a starter than Buchholz? Chamberlain pitched under 100 innings last year as a starter, that's not enough to demonstrate a trend.
  12. Imperial59
  13. Imperial59
    Believe me, I agree that his mechanics have something to do with his horrible 2008. I've been saying that since the Sox changed his mechanics in the first place in an attempt to preserve his arm over the long haul. My point is that we've yet to see an objective case for Buccholz being a better major league starter than Chamberlain. Chamberlain's career ERA as a starter is much better.
  14. Imperial59
    Chill, you don't have to be an @ss to everyone who disagrees with your opinions. You posted differences in his pitch values. But your opinion on why his pitch values changed is purely subjective. As for his FIP, it probably has something to do with his .289 BABIP and his 76.7% left on base percentage. xFIP may be more accurate overall. But Buchholz has shown to give up a lot of home runs over his major league career. His HR/9 rate was the same last year as it was in 2008 when you claim he was a different pitcher. And he's given up all these home runs (1.1 HR/9 over his career) in a park that's not very friendly for home runs. No one's saying Buchholz doesn't have potential. But no prospect is a sure thing. Objectively it's hard to make a case that Buchholz is better than Chamberlain as Buch's career ERA as a starter is almost a full run higher than Chamberlain's.
  15. Imperial59
    http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/auld_lang_sign_lnyUGytHfw1E9U0jIMUpMN The NYP has reported that Cashman wants to add a new starter by Jan. 1st. With the bottom of the Yankees rotation currently consisting of Joba Chamberlain and Sergio Mitre, they could certainly use some bottom of the rotation help. They could move Hughes to the rotation, but he has a 5.22 ERA as a starter and it would leave the Yankees without a reliable set up man. So what options are there for a 5th starter? The Yankees are rumored to have inquired on Carlos Zambrano, but they didn't like the price. Some sources have claimed the Yankees never talked to the Cubs about him. Other options include Derek Lowe, Aaron Harang, Joel Pineiro, Ben Sheets or Bonderman. But it's unclear whether or not the Yankees are willing to pay for the additional $10+ million it will take to acquire a pitcher via free agency.
  16. Imperial59
    That argument is rather subjective. You could say "if he can put all his pitches together next year, watch out" about virtually any young pitcher. And I think Buchholz still has a lot of work to do, he had a 4.69 FIP last year.
  17. Imperial59
    Like I said, we only have 132 million committed to players right now, we really can't say what will happen in arbitration. But you adding in minor league contracts and assuming the Sox will sgn Beltre for 10 million only gets you up to 157 million. Even when you fudge the numbers, they're nowhere near the 170 million figure you claimed they'd be at.
  18. Imperial59
  19. Imperial59
    It's probably because of short memories. Buchholz had a 4.21 ERA last year as a starter while Chamberlain had a 4.78 ERA as a starter. I think that's why people are higher on Buchholz right now, but that change easily come April.
  20. Imperial59
  21. Imperial59
    The members of the Yankees lineup that performed above their career averages includes Jeter, Teixeira, Swisher, Cano, Cabrera and Posada. That's 2/3rds of the Yankees lineup (A-Rod matched his career OPS+ exactly). So if you expect players to regress to career averages, then the Yankees should expect MAJOR offensive regression. Thanks for making my point stronger :thumbsup:
  22. Imperial59
  23. Imperial59
    Are you just saying that to bait or do you actually think that's true? The Sox currently have $135.2 million committed to players for next year. Explain to me how exactly we're going to get from that to $170 million? Are we going to sign Matt Holliday 3 times?
  24. Imperial59
  25. Imperial59
    Wow, I had no idea. You sure told me! Matsui and Damon played for the Yankees last year, so if you're going to make a case for offensive improvement from last year to next, you're going to have to claim that Johnson and Granderson will improve on Matsui and Damon last year, not Johnson and Granderson last year. Simple enough for ya yet?
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