The James Bible says don't overvalue closers, and the Red Sox pretty much adhere to his principles.
I wonder, with Bard the logical cheap successor, if they will just let Pap go. Closers are one inning /one pitch guys.They aren't worth top dollar. Pap had the typical contract year, and you wonder if he will get up that high again after a big contract. I like the two draft picks, with Bard waiting to close. It's his time. Plus they can save the $$ to sign another FA starter.Bard trailed off in September from overuse. He did come back in the end to pitch effectively--at least one outing. He had a long streak of scoreless innings mid-season.
I'd do the same with Papi--another popular re-sign. Two draft picks. Papi has a big ego, and I think he'll be surprised to find what an ageing DH is worth on the market. Look at VGuerrero. Big year in Texas two years ago, and couldn't get dork the next year. Stats declined in Baltimore. Use the Papi money to sign Cuddyer.
One guy they should re-sign is Scutaro. Unless they are going after Reyes. Furcal is good but prone to injury at this point. So is Reyes. Keep Marco. Pretty steady.
The Sox budget last year was $170M, and they didn't get much out of it.
They are adding AdGon to the books this year to go with CC. That's +$20M.
They will lose some off the books--Drew, Tek, Wake, ???Maybe -$20M to offset AdGon.
My guess is they will cut some more. Henry won't be so generous this year.