SoxSport

Beckett's odd year is coming up. Or is it the even year? Anyway, it's the bad year. I've changed my mind about Crawford. Pitching is the priority this year. The hitting will take care of itself, no matter what they do--or what Crawford does. That's why I think Maddux should be the next manager.The Ranger's pitching coach. I can't imagine Nolan Ryan hiring a bad pitching coach. MLB TV had a segment on him tonite--I'm impressed. Maybe he'll bring Wilson with him.

Tiant belongs in the HOF. Big game pitcher. The only differences between him and Catfish Hunter are Hunter played for the Yankees and Tiant was better.

If you look at the sabermetrics books going back 20 years, they tell you the Red Sox have only one problem--PITCHING. When they have the pitching (ERA Against the Yankees, dating back 50 years, it has ALWAYS been the pitching. Throught the 40s and 50s, when the Sox had power teams, but the Yankees had better pitching. It was no different last year, and it will be no different this year. The Red Sox will live or die on their pitching--regardless of what happens to Crawford and the rest of the hitters. And so will the Yankees. Epstein & Co., by the way, didn't do a very good job of drafting and developing minor league pitching in recent years. A major part of their pitching problem.

They've got three good starters. The problem is to keep them healthy. And to back them up with a couple of more starters to give them depth. Aceves and somebody else. Last season, Dice-K and Buchholz go down. And what replaced them was a failure. The one guy who stood out was Aceves, and he was relegated to middle relief--a key mistake. They got Bedard in trade at mid-season, but the guy never really came back fully from his knee injury. The rest of them--Lackey, Wake and Miller--did not do the job, despite being given the chance--too many times. The bottom line is nobody ever replaced Buchholz, much less Dice-K. One key problem is their lack of pitching depth in the minors. No help there.

Cherington says they will try to get one more starter on the cheap. That could mean somebody like Colon. Aceves will surely be the no.4 starter. Bard will probably stay at setup for Pap--or close if Pap signs elsewhere. They could also add another closer, and keep Bard at setup. The top Sox starters need to pitch more innings: Lester and Beckett were both below 200 innings last year. Most #1 and 2 starters throw 200 + innings. That suggests they are taking their starters out too soon, which puts extra pressure on the bullpen.

Yeah, I've argued that point, too, about Pap. Take the draft picks for him and Ortiz. Sell high with both these guys. Absolutely. That's probably the only way they'll be able to keep their payroll from increasing--if they want another RHd bat. But they'll probably have to sign a Madsen, unless they move Bard up. They might try to sign Wheeler for cheaper money. They just didn't want to pay him $3M.

It's a shame Ethier doesn't bat RHd. He'd be a fit. I think they want a RHd bat to play part-time in RF and DH. I would not be surprised if they let Ortiz go. They can't sign anyone without increasing their payroll beyond $160M--especially if they sign Pap.

I bet they re-sign Pap. I checked some stats, and Pap had the best K/W ratio of any closer in baseball last year. Pap-8.7, Rivera-7.5, Putz-5.0. Those were the top 3. Pap didn't get a lot of saves relative to others, but he had a helluva good year in quality stats. His best year since '08 when his K/W was 9.6. Bard's K/W last year was 3.1--close to his career average. These stats will probably determine how far the Red Sox will go to keep Pap.

Unless they're going to trade Reddick or Kalish, it's hard to see them adding another LHd outfielder--especially a player like Sizemore with chronic knee issues. Same goes with Beltran, though Carlos had a pretty sound year. And he can bat right-handed and DH some. More versatile than Sizemore, though older. I'd pass on both these guys, and rely on the farm system. Kalish should be healthy again, and he showed enough 2 years ago to be ready even last year. Bill James thought so, but the Sox had a logjam in RF. No sense in creating another logjam.

You would think Tek and Wake would not be back. I think the string has played out for Wake. But I read that the pitching staffs' ERA was about 3.5 with Tek and 4.5 with Salty this year. Tek didn't have that many starts, but that's pretty alarming. Salty might be better this year, but it shows they need an improved Salty or maybe another catcher next year calling games.

He did get fired by the Mets. And dropped by the Brewers recently.

Rick Peterson, by the way, is the pitching coach everyone seems to like. I think he's available right now.

I'm more impressed with what the Rays did this year than the Phillies. Maddon strikes me as a better manager than Manual, so that's a good reason to prefer Martinez, assuming he has picked up something from Maddon. Plus the Crawford factor. But it's understandable why the Red Sox are interested in Mackanin. The Phillies had the best pitching and the best overall team last year. That's a plus for Manual--and their coaching and GM. They were just unlucky in the playoffs--like the Yankees. Beane in Moneyball says the playoffs are just a crapshoot.

That signals they won't be in the market for Reyes or Rollins. I hope they bring up Iglesias at some point-- they need his defense at SS and not his bat. Just teach the kid how to get on base. He doesn't have to hit .280.

The fans don't have a positive impression of Sveum, based on his performance coaching 3B. To the fan, he's one of a string of bad 3B coaches. Ditto for Hale, who is one of the old regime connected to the September collapse. He would seem to share some responsibility in the team's lax attitude. The team needs a new face in the dugout--after what happened in September, and the management replacements. An outside face. Whether that new face is new school or old school--may not matter. A priority , however, is to turn Crawford around, and that suggests Martinez. Another priority is to tighten up the rules.

They'll be hell to pay if they don't get something for Epstein, who walked away from his contract. And after what the White Sox got for their manager from the Marlins. I don't think Selig will want to piss off LL.

Sveum was one of those bad Red Sox 3B coaches, as I recall. Not someone the fans can get excited about. If they're going to pick an older guy, I wish they would pick somebody who has won a championship--not named Tito. I'm not a big fan of Charlie Manual--nice guy. strictly old school. I can't get excited about his bench coach , either. I wish the Red Sox would aim higher.

You got to be successful about 70% of the time to have a zero effect on runs. The Sox were successful 71% last year on about 100 attempts vs 76% success on about 310 attempts for their opponents. That translated into +28 runs for their opponents--about 20% of the net total run difference between the Sox and their opponents last year. That suggests the FO has to rethink their strategy on SBs. They need better defense aginst stealing, and more effective use of stealing in offense. That's a must with 3 guys in the lineup who can steal 40 bases--CC, Ells and Kalish. Conserve outs, yes, but trade an out for a run? yes.

Sabermetrics isn't that important to the manager--except for stealing bases and bunting to move runners in critical situations. Players who walk a lot will walk a lot for any manager. The other thing that's important is handling the pitching--when to take the starter out, how to use the bullpen. That wasn't a Tito strength, but what was Epstein's input on this? Beane controls that a lot during a game with the As. Which type of manager they want is a tough call. Maybe it depends on who LL and Henry want. They might want a guy like Valentine--or some other name type with experience. Bowa isn't the right temperament. Most of the others are already managing. If Cherington is calling the shots, it might be a younger guy--a bench coach. Like he said in his news conference. In that case, I would favor Martinez, because of the importance in turning Crawford around. Crawford's defense WAR went down last year as well compared to his previous year in TB (-.3 vs +.5). That indicates to me he had a head problem--an adjustment problem. The Sox will have to solve that. That's why I favor Martinez--without knowing much more about him, except he was the bench coach of a fundamentals-oriented team, which used speed as a weapon. The Sox will have to do that next year with Ells, CC and Kalish. They can't avoid it.

I think they need a guy the players can respect. Somebody who has experience. Been there, done that. And somebody who can press the right buttons during a game. And the players usually know what the right buttons are. Tony Larussa, for example. He's respected. I think the sabermetrics stuff is best left to the GM and FO--the people who pick the farm system, draft,etc. I don't think the manager should be restricted as to moving baserunners by bunting or stealing, or manipulating lineups--or changing pitchers. Here you want a manager that doesn't feel constricted by sabermetrics. You want some flexibility for the situation. Next year, the Red Sox will have 3 guys who can steal 40 bases and one guy who can steal 20. That's a lot of speed in a lineup that doesn't use speed. You wonder how things got that way? Beane always drafted guys who got lots of walks and had power--guys who were fat, slow and couldn't play defense. Guys other GMs passed on. He was successful--for awhile. Things might be on another level now. Maybe speed and defense are coming back into play. Maybe the Red Sox will surpise people this year with their style of play. Cherington is a first year GM. I expect a tighter control of pursestrings by Henry and LL. I also think the new manager will have more autonomy in running a game and the clubhouse. That could mean a veteran that LL will have heavy input on.

Freese won a black Corvette for MVP.

Congrats to the Cardinals. I guess Freese gets the MVP, but Berkman was also huge in this series. Pujols had a strange year. Slow start. finished well. Didn't do much this series, except for 3HRs one game. I wonder what the Cardinals will do if he wants more than $25M.