SoxSport

Nice player--as long as they don't try to stick him in right field. He's an infielder.

Cafardo thinks they need a more independent manager--like Valentine. He is disturbed by the candidates, who look like FO lackeys. Did I say lackey? I tend to agree, though I don't know if Valentine is the right guy. I would leave the moneyball to the FO, and get a manager who can manage games and handle pitching. Somebody who isn't afraid to play smallball when a critical run is needed, and who doesn't burn out a bullpen using 4 pitchers in a 7-1 win. Never forget seeing CC sitting on 1b in late September, a run behind, 8th inning, no outs. He just sat there. No attempt to steal. He should have been gone on the first pitch.

You sell low with Youks right now, coming off injuries. Plus he's 33. When he's healthy, he's one of the best players in baseball. Santana, no. He and Pedey are the two guys who have to be right for the Red Sox to win. He was absent, by the way, in September. And they were both hurt 2nd half last year when the Sox fell out of contention.

Well, there is an urgency--after the September disaster and subsequent housecleaning. That makes this year different. Wish they would get the Epstein compensation out of the way for starters. The other thing is you want to get your dibs in before Miami sucks up every free agent on the market. Just kidding.

I think Henry and Lucchino are looking not to increase payroll. They haven't said it, but going beyond $160 mil would put them into large luxury tax territory pretty fast. To me, that means no Pap and no Papi, if they want to add a starter and a right handed bat for RF and DH.

A good manager will pick the right "10%" situations, or whatever the percent is.

If Drew didn't look like a good player, Beane and Depodesta would have been all over him. He had the saber stats, but he wasn't fat and slow. So he had Boras as his agent. That ended that.

Yeah...they don't want to be boxed in re-signing Papi the way they were when they re-signed Wakefield the last year or two. Papi's age and contract year spike make him look risky, though not as risky as Pap was. But Papi is one dimensional, and spreading the DH around to position players gives them more depth and versatility, especially if they sign Beltran with the money saved.

Agreed there. And I wouldn't resign Papi, either, though Cherington is saying they might resign Papi because of his PR value and the lack of much interest in him elsewhere. I.E., they can get him cheap--maybe a 1+1. He is still a gamble to come back at his age. But his OWar (3.8) was higher than Pap's (2.1) last year, and he'll come cheaper. I also think Lucchino is calling the shots on these personnel decisions right now. Theo had to put on a gorilla suit to get that responsibility five years ago. I doubt Cherington is on his own here with these FA decisions. Not as a newbie GM. And not with Theo's FA record in recent years.

If the Phillies had Bard, they wouldn't have signed Pap. Bard is a closer in waiting. If he wasn't, Pap would have been given an offer. That was probably the plan all along.

I think the Phillies wanted to resign Madsen--a known quantity for them. But Madsen's agent was Boras, and that means the deal was too rich for the Phillies. So they decided to go with a higher profile closer for similar money. They just didn't want to pay Madsen Pap money. The question is whether they are rolling the dice with Pap. Will he revert to the pitcher of 2 years ago? The Red Sox have a strong closer in waiting in Bard (forget about September--they all sucked, and Bard was overpitched). That probably was the plan all along. If they wanted Pap, he would have gotten an offer. What I think they should do now is go after Nathan or Broxton. Cheaper guys who can close or setup, as backups for Jenks and Bard. Nathan could wind up to be a steal, with his strong 2nd half stats.

My hunch is LL is running the show right now. When they give somebody his freedom, it's a sign they do not want him. Hello Theo, Tito and now Pap.

The playoffs are a crapshoot, and the Yankees were just plain unlucky in a 5 game series. But you look at the age of their team, and you wonder if age wasn't a factor as well for them in October. Forget the $200 mil. Chickenfeed relative to their cable revenue. They probably can spend $250 mil, but that would be an embarrassment and just make the spending inequities in Baseball look worse.

Pap's K/BB ratio (8.5) was the tops among closers last year, but his WAR was only 2.1. Closers don't have the same value in Sabermetrics as they do in fantasy, because saves are not that important. A lot of saves could probably be done by 2-3 other guys in the bullpen (though that's a stretch on the Red Sox). A saber GM, therefore, probably doesn't value a closer as highly as others would, and the Red Sox FO is probably saber oriented. The other factor is Pap failed his last critical outing that cost them the playoffs, though he had an excellent year. But he sucked the previous 2 years, so the contract year is suspect in terms of getting a long-term contract. The same applies to Papi. Similar situation. Maybe the thinking is let's get the draft choices and go with the cheap guy Bard who is next in line. When you look at their payroll, you see it's tough to keep Pap or Papi if they are going to spend money on a RHd hitting outfielder, and maybe another starter. Or they might go with a Madsen or somebody else cheaper in the closer or setup role. Giving big bucks long term to Pap is risky the way he has pitched the last few years. But Amaro is very aggressive, and the Phillies have to spend to keep their new ballpark full.

Aside from park adjustments and duplications, there is also the large effect of walks on OPS. Or rather, OBP. A lot of intentional and semi-intentional walks, for example, can blow up the OPS--as it did for Ruth, Williams and Bonds. Indeed, intentional walks are still used in certain situations with certain players--with mixed success. Walks can have defensive value. Bill James has been using "runs produced" for years as a stat; and there is Steve Winters' "bases produced". Winters is a math PhD. Both these stats correlate well with the "best" hitters. I don't know what the correlation is with OPS, but both runs and bases produced are more direct measures of a hitters' game effectiveness--without heavy weighting of walks. You can google these terms for references. Baseball is about moving baserunners and scoring runs--and that can be done a variety of ways. It is also about NOT making outs. There is, to an extent, a conflict between these two approaches, since sometimes one must make an out to score a run--to put it simply.

Not a word about him. He may have an asterisk next to his name due to his rumored affair with Sandberg's wife. Tito had some personal stuff that was alluded to but never clarified. The Hazel Mae (ex of MLB cable) rumor may have had some legs. Pun intended.

Papi wants 3 years. So did VG a couple of years ago, after his good year in Texas. He didn't get that much in Baltimore, and had a down year. These older guys all overestimate their value. What did Texas do for DH this year? Didn't they split it up? Michael Young did a lot of it. They signed Beltre and replaced VG in-house. The Red Sox have hung a sign on Papi (and maybe Pap) saying "available for the right price." That means you outbid us, you get him.

I think the Yankees will "swoop in" and get either Wilson or Buerhle while Cherington is still dicking around trying to get a manager and something from the Cubs for Epstein. The Sox' no.1 priority should be a legitimate #4 starter.

manager no. but maybe bullpen coach.

Beltran yes means Papi no. But it's really about the pitching.

A lot of what I'm seeing strikes me as the status quo. Starting with the GM, which was a simple internal promotion. Now they say an ex-coach is a leading contender for manager, a guy who left with a bad rep as 3B coach. Hope not. They need a new face for manager, and some new coaches. The Epstein compensation has become a distraction from more serious business, and it's evident now they botched that up by allowing Epstein to be interviewed without some pre-conditions on compensation. Meanwhile, other teams are pulling off deals for pitchers, while the Red Sox seem to be treading water. Given their bad experience with Lackey, I doubt they'll be in the market for Wilson or Buerhle. And they do need a #4 starter who can replace any one of the top 3 in case of injury. That was their biggest hole last year. They may need to pull off a deal for Reddick or Kalish.