I don't have a lot of faith in "experts". I find no solace in knowing that so many of them have been wrong. I'm not surprised either. Predicting the performance year to year of any athlete is dicey whether you use stats to substantiate your opinion or not. Too many of these experts get it dead wrong in every sport.
I'll listen to guys like Shilling or Rice because they both were very good at what they did. But I only listen to them about pitching and batting. That is what they know.
I also believe that the Sox idea of stocking the rotation with schlock was a flawed one. Expecting this rotation to remain competitive even when the offense was "under performing" was a really dumb idea if that is what the FO was thinking. So the idea that the best offense in baseball would carry the team was just dumb. It is common sense.
Even if this offense was to be strong, there was always the chance that Bogey would continue to be below average, that Betts would struggle, that Vasquez would struggle, that Castillo would struggle, that Victorino would contribute little or nothing, etc.
Deliberately disassembling a pitching staff and then restocking with mid to bottom of the rotation guys and reclamation projects was just not a good idea. The results prove this.
The key problem seems to be talent evaluation. The Sox have sucked at it, overall, for a couple of years at least. Whose responsibility is that? The GM's.
Projections are fine. But they are only as good as the people who are doing the evaluations. In this case, they failed.