mvp 78

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-fill-out-rotation-with-intriguing-michael-wacha-addition/ Wacha succeeds or fails with his changeup. It allowed a .270 wOBA last year, and he’s thrown it over a quarter of the time in the last two seasons. It’s his best swing-and-miss pitch, with a SwStr% of 19.6%, though honestly, it’s his only swing-and-miss pitch; his fastball, cutter and curveball get whiffs less than 10% of the time. He throws his change in the upper 80s, about 7 mph off of his fastball, and with its decent arm-side movement plus an average amount of drop, it can be lethal below the knees to lefties. He throws it more than 25% of the time to righties as well, and its effectiveness only slightly drops against them (a .262 wOBA to lefties and .275 to righties). But even Wacha’s nasty changeup isn’t immune to the long ball; its HR/FB rate last season was 24%, the worst of any of his pitches. Like most changeups, it leads to a lot of ground balls, but last year, it had a career-low GB% (49.5%), career-high FB% (24.8%), and career-high launch angle (8 degrees). A lot of this change in results, though, seems to have come from hitters being in better position to elevate balls in the lower third of the strike zone. Beyond his changeup, the real issue for Wacha the last couple years has been his cutter. He’s increased its usage over the last two years, all the way up to 27.2% in 2020 and 24.8% in ’21. But hitters tore it apart last year to the tune of a .415 wOBA allowed, and according to our pitch value metric, it’s been a negative his entire career, with the lone exception being the 2018 season. Wacha and the Rays seemed to have concluded that his cutter was a lost cause, because in mid-August, its usage dropped; from August 28 onward, he threw only a small handful. His performance during that cutter-less stretch, you ask? A 2.88 ERA and 3.29 FIP. That’s the stretch that earned him this contract, and it would seem obvious that his cutter will stay missing next season in Boston — or that might be premature, as Wacha stated recently that he plans on bringing it back. Wacha looked like a completely different pitcher late in the season without his cutter, with its usage distributed to a newly developed sinker and his curveball; both of those pitches went from basically unused to each being thrown more than 10% of the time. The sinker is a logical replacement, given its low spin rate, and the early returns seemed positive, as it allowed a .333 wOBA. It’s hard to draw a sweeping conclusion on it after this limited sample, though, and the same can be said for his curveball, which was hit quite hard (.425 wOBA) in its limited run, though none of that came in the form of extra-base hits, and it had an absurd 71.4% ground-ball rate. It will be interesting to see what kind of arsenal he brings to the table in 2022 after an offseason of tinkering with these pitches and working with a new staff.

There were lots of whispers that the Sox would be in on the SS market, but that hasn't happened. Wonder why that was floated out there at the start of the offseason.

I think most people didn't expect this many guys to sign before the CBA expired.

You don't need Gausman son, you have Gausman at home already.

I think Semien could make that contract look really ugly. He wasn't a sure thing for the vast majority of his career. I don't understand the Avisail deal at all. Twins are paying for Buxton's MVP upside, but the downside is he'll sit on the bench for 7 years. The Kluber signing is fine.

1/7 is fine for Wacha. Sox need to add a better arm than that though.

No lie found.

Passan: Right-hander Michael Wacha and the Boston Red Sox are finalizing a one-year contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Wacha, 30, was solid in a starting role for Tampa Bay last season and is expected to bring depth to the Red Sox’s rotation. Deal is pending a physical.

I’d only sign him to a MiLB deal.

Folty had one good year when his spin rates were out of control. Aside from that year, he’s been a 6th starter.

Hot stove is now cancelled. Better luck next offseason guys!

No.

No zoom loon Bloom won't go vroom soon. The gloom goon fumes and booms a doom tomb tune.

I'm not sure they will rely on any 2021 Worcester arms for the opening day roster.

This is the way.

Agree.

Kimbrel is a choker.

@SPChrisHatfield Another solid start from Kutter Crawford last night in the DR. 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 5 K. Included getting out of a bases loaded jam with Ks of Emilio Bonifacio and Chris Owings. Now at 21.1 IP, 0.42 ERA, 23 K, 8 BB for the winter.

Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have agreed to move this year’s deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players up from December 2 to November 30 at 8:00 pm EST. Potential non-tender candidates for the Sox: Renfroe, Plawecki, Schreiber, Valdez, Arroyo

ERod 5/77 Matz 4/144 Graveman 3/24 DeSclafani 3/36 2 years: Verlander 1 year: Syndergaard, Morton, Quintana, Wainright, Heaney For some reason, I thought Stroman had a 4 year offer from the Cardinals. That must have been just a rumor.

The #1 pick in last year's Rule 5 Draft was José Soriano. Soriano is a guy who was out all year on IL similar to Ward. Pirates paid him MLB minimum this season to rehab, burn an option year and then just send him back to the Angels on 11/14. If Ward is selected, there is a good chance that he is returned. Of the 18 guys selected last year, only 8 were never offered back to the original club. Baddoo and Whitlock were notable as they actually stayed with the new club and performed. That's not generally the outlook for Rule 5 guys.

Anyone they sign prior to the CBA will most likely be short on years just because they don't know the outlook on the luxury tax. I'll think that's why they've missed out on a few guys so far. Once the CBA is agreed upon, they'll be more likely to sign a longer term deal unless things drastically change with the tax calculation.

4. They're a pissed.

How can you get much more competitive than reaching the ALCS?

I'm glad the Sox didn't do that deal.