Dipre

I picked Billingsley as an upside pitching pick. I think he's better right now than many pitchers taken before him and comparable to Kershaw albeit with less strikeouts but better control. He's also cheap and gives me a potentially dominant 1-2.

Haha ok buddy. Let's sit on those 42 doubles and 27 Hr's.

180 AB's is enough to project a trend a statistical trend over 550 AB's? News to me. And i only mention this for the sake of factual accuracy. If it was a Yankees player you'd be singing a whole different tune. There are only three players on the Red Sox realistically capable of a SLG% of .520 or greater during a full season: Youk, Gonzales and Ortiz. Come on now, let's live in reality here.

Equal rights for everyone. Wait it out we shall.

By the way, to those asking, as the drafting period comes to an end, a trade segment will be opened for people to both improve their team or get out of payroll trouble. I will announce the duration of the period and the specifics as the draft comes to an end. I must also express satisfaction at the pace the re-draft has maintained. Good job guys, keep it up!

Surprised Rasmus fell back to me. He's about to explode into stardom IMO. I got studs (or potential studs) in three really-hard to fill positions. My draft plan is coming together nicely even though the "Pitcher's rush" is absolutely nuts.

They had another option. His name was Jayson Werth, but then he signed the stupidest contract this side of Barry Zito and all of a sudden Crawford began to make a whole lot of sense. You'll never get him to admit that Crawford was the back-up plan, not the main option, and that Theo hasn't "subscribed" to his philosophy, yet the man speaks of pettiness.

Grand plan? The Grand Plan is playing in Philly now, after surprisingly turning down the Yankee money.

The platoon issues have grown noticeably worse the last few years. Besides, there have been a ton of guys "who have closed" who have signed for similar contracts and are superior pitchers. (JJ Putz comes to mind), bargain is not the right word.

Agree to disagree. I'd rather overpay for one year with the superior reliever than go three years on a LOOGY. I always say that, because of the possibility of relievers becoming a sunk cost, anything more than a two-year deal is looking for trouble. Not to mention that then Fuentes wouldn't cost 3/12, but you'd have to factor in the cost of cutting Papelbon. Not worth it IMO.

Dumping Papelbon to sign Fuentes makes no sense. Even with his down year, Paps is still a superior reliever than Fuentes, so he's a better option even if he'll make a ton of money. And he can't be non-tendered since he was offered arb.

Justin Verlander 6.75 million. Ital, think you can stop discussing my drafting strategy and giving people reason to stir controversy? Please?

That's retarded. Why the f*** would i rip anyone for their picks? Everybody has their strategy and this is like the second round of the draft. Have i publicly criticized any pick? Jesus.

Already picked.

I bet you didn't fully read the last one. The problem with the Lowrie love-fest is that even though he has the potential to be an offensively superior SS, people like to brush aside the question marks (which do exist) in order to assign certainty to production that isn't there. So i just give people a little nudge to create discussion, and sure enough, discussion it creates. What i really think? There are questions about his health (people consistenly ignore them), but at his best, he's a guy with superior OBP (.370+) and gap power (440+ SLG) who will hit doubles on the mid-thirties and homeruns in the mid-teens. Going so far as to comparing Lowrie to Tulowitzki and Michael Young (completely different ballplayers) sheds light on a total disregard for the type of player the guy actually is to assign to him the tools that would allow him to be the player you wish he was. Could he develop into a 25-30 hitter? Stranger things have happened. Is it likely? Nope. And for the record, it's not a matter of not being articulate in my posts, but a matter (i'll state it again) of reading too quickly, catching the bait, and ignoring the content in the posts.

People (like SoxfanForsyth) are too busy assigning an idea of what they think i'm saying, instead of reading what i actually say. @ORS: It's not a critique, it's a tempering of expectations. Due to the SSS issues, his HR numbers are inflated, while i basically mention it for the sake of argument (what the hell else am i going to do in the off-season while i wait for the juggernaut to awaken?) , the attempt at creating a fairly accurate description of what the player could do could in a non-biased argument is tempting to me because it gets the Lowrie-lovers' panties in a twist. There, i said it.

s*** just got real, baby.

I'm using the Bill James projections, whose formula basically creates a "middle ground" (or average) of the player's overall major league numbers, meaning that it skewed Lowrie's HR/FB% higher than his minor league average may indicate. He's an OBP guy with gap power who may hit homers on the mid-teens on a good year. But for him, home runs aren't that important, and they were never a big part of his game, whereas getting on base and hitting the ball the other way were. I'll take a .370 OBP with 35 doubles and 12 homers every time over a .340 OBP with 30 doubles and 22 homers. The first stat-line is the one Lowrie has always been projected to have. Also, Terry Francona said he'll be the ultilityman out of ST, and it makes sense to showcase Scutaro at SS so they can trade him for a decent return.

Bill James' projection says 17 HR's in 144 games (the mark i mentioned), and 22 for Drew in 139 games. Who does Bill James agree with again? Read my post again, and notice how i didn't mention anything about the number of games played, which none of us can project anyway, and are realistically likely to be less than that total, and also because his power surge form last season is very much out of line with his career numbers, and was fueled by an 11.4 HR/FB%, when his career marks (including minors) is 6.8% and even worse, as part of a minuscule sample size. I don't get it, he's an OBP guy, why insist on pimping power that not only isn't there, but is not all that important? For the position of the lineup he's going to be hitting in, OBP is much better than a couple of homeruns anyway.

Faith and realistic expectations don't have to be mutually exclusive. Jed won't crack 18, Drew will play at least 130 games and will hit at least 22 jacks, and i'm willing to make a bet about it right now.

No love for Tulo? He's arguably the best SS in the game right now, a true 5-tool player, and produced the 11th best WAR in the Major while playing only 122 games. His "Coors" split is almost non-discernible either, having bettered his previous mark for a 3rd year in a row, and posting a .863 away OPS with a BABIP within normal parameters.

Pitching: Starters: Jon Lester: 3.53 ERA, 204.0 IP, 195 K, 1.27 WHIP, 32 GS. Clay Bucholz: 3.54 ERA, 193 IP, 168 K, 1.28 WHIP, 29 GS. Josh Beckett: 3.80 ERA, 168 IP, 155 K, 1.27 WHIP, 26 GS. John Lackey: 3.89 ERA, 227.0 IP, 179 K, 1.31 WHIP, 33 GS. Daisuke Matsuzaka: 3.85 ERA, 173 IP, 158 K, 1.34 WHIP, 27 GS. Bullpen: Tim Wakefield: 115 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.31 WHIP. Scott Atchison: 64 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. Felix Doubront: (Not available) Dan Wheeler: 47 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. Bobby Jenks: 49 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. Dan Bard: 76 IP, 2.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP. Jon Papelbon: 69 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.09 WHIP.

Fangraphs predictions for the 2011 Red Sox using the Bill James formula: Hitting: 1) Jacoby Ellsbury, CF: .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG%, 8 HR, 32 2B, 6 3B, 59 SB, 58 RBI, 102 RS, 157 games played. 2) Carl Crawford, LF: .300 BA, .350 OBP, 453 SLG%,14 HR, 27 2B, 9 3B, 51 SB, 71 RBI, 93 RS, 149 games played. 3) Dustin Pedroia, 2B: .297 BA, .372 OBP, 462 SLG%, 17 HR, 51 2B, 1 3B, 16 SB, 77 RBI, 108 RS, 158 games played. 4) Adrian Gonzales, 1B: .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG%, 33 HR, 35 2B, 1 3B, 2 SB, 102 RBI, 92 RS, 161 games played. 5) Kevin Youkilis, 3B: .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG%, 25 HR, 41 2B, 2 3B, 5 SB, 95 RBI, 103 R, 151 games played. 6) David Ortiz, DH: .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG%, 33 HR, 39 2B, 1 3B, 0 SB, 112 RBI, 91 RS, 151 games played. 7) Jed Lowrie, SS: .270 BA, .361 OBP, .467 SLG%, 17 HR, 38 2B, 3 3B, 4 SB, 75 RBI, 75 RS, 144 games played. 8) JD Drew, RF: .263 BA, .370 OBP ,.460 SLG%, 22 HR, 24 2B, 2 3B, 3 SB, 77 RBI, 86 RS, 145 games played. 9) Jarrod "Salty" Saltalamacchia, C: .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG%, 12 HR, 20 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB 43 RBI, 45 R, 110 games played.

19 HR's for Lowrie? And more HR's for Lowrie than for Drew? Wow.