TedWilliams101

Where is the speed gun?

Bay has to get it started this series.

I love that Big Papi is back. Another shot that just misses leaving the park.

I don't think his 1.5 WHIP is just due to "bad luck". He has posted his highest SLG (against - .469). What is most disturbing (or telling), though, is his GB/FB ratio. His career average is 0.86, this season has been 0.69. His XBH this season are a career high 10.2%. If he was getting a lot of grounders that were finding holes, than I would agree its luck, but he's not. I'm not saying Penny is a terrible pitcher. He's not, he's about average. I just think that you have to play your BEST team. Buchholz in the rotation is better than Penny in the rotation. I do think we could get some decent return on Penny. We don't need to "empty" a farm for him. A solid utility player or solid prospect should be good enough. Better yet, move him to the pen or option him to AAA.

If there was a better market for power/elite hitters, than I wouldn't expect Bay to get a big payday. However, that market is VERY thin, so I'm sure there are plenty of big market teams that would get into a bidding war. Teams can either get a much older bat or one that's not nearly as good. Bay and Holliday will be the cream of the crop with not much in between.

Who is saying that if the Red Sox don't get Halladay, he will go to the Yankees? I simply said that I'd rather not have to give away Buchholz and the farm to get a 32 year old Halladay. If the Yankees get serious, then the Sox might not have a choice but give up the farm for him, but that is a worst (or best, how ever you look at it) case scenario. This isn't a discussion of Yankees vs Red Sox. Oh, and believe me, the Jays WON'T trade Halladay to the Yankees or Sox unless we give them the entire farm.

Example, where did you get those WARP and VORP stats from? I looked up Bay and Dunn's WARP and VORP stats on basebalprospectus and fangraphs... and they were all different. Does each site/group make their own calculations/modifications/etc?

Last off-season was the "old market"? If that's the case, what basis are we to make on the value in the "new market"? How can you use Dunn's contract signed in '08, call it the "new market", while call other deals done that same off-season as "old market"? Let me remind you of some of the ridiculous deals made in this "new market". Tex: $180 million/8y Sabathia: $161 million/7y Burnett: $85.5 million/5y Manny: $45 million/2y Howard: $54 million/3y Dempster: $52 million/4y K-Rod: $37 million/3y K Wood: $22.5 million/2y Young: $64 million/4y Hanley Ramirez: $58.5 million/5y Those were all deals from this past off season. That doesn't look like the Market is going to be much cheaper... Also, a little more food for thought, since 2008, 11 outfielders have signed contracts worth $11+ million a year.

I'm assuming they can't option him down the Pawtucket. If they can a good bench player, a mid-level prospect, etc, I'd trade him. If not, send him down to Pawtucket if possible.

What is wrong with having Masterson as the injury insurance pitcher? In his first 2 season so far has started 15 games. He has a 4.03ERA with 67K in 89.1 innings, a WHIP of 1.332, and has averaged 6IP per start. The only concern are the walks (44), but that should improve with experience (and has, 4.1 BB/9 in 08 down to 3.2 BB/9 this season). That is BETTER than what Penny has given us this year (and as good as he has been since May). Sooo, whats the problem? How can you argue with having Masterson as the backup?

Yeah, and you forgot to mention his average (.32 lower than Bay) and the fact that he challenges the strikeout record every year. I'll admit, I think they are about a wash offensively (Dunn has WAY more power, but Bay hits for a better average, strikes out less, drives in more runs, and is MUCH better with RISP). Also, his contract is $20 million/2 years, so he is essentially getting $10 million a year, not $8 (He makes $12 million next season). Honestly, though, you picked the ONE guy who didn't get a big contract. He is the exception, not the rule. Soriano got a $136 million/8y contract in '07, Vernon Wells a $126 million/7y contract in '08, Carlos Lee a $100 million/5y contract in '07, Torii Hunter a $90 million/5y contract in '08, Ichiro a $90 million/5y contract in '08, Aramis Ramirez a $75 million/5y contract in '07, Howard a $54 million/3y contract in '08, Dye a $22 million/2y contract in '08. I could keep going. The other thing you have to take into consideration is market value. Market value goes up if there is a shortage of that commodity. The legit power/elite hitters under 33 in the '10 FA class are Blalock, Glaus, Andrew Jones, Matt Holliday, and Bay. That's it. Not exactly an eye-popping group.

A700, I think you are missing the point with starting Buchholz over Penny. It's all in the upside. Buchholz's worst case scenario is basically the same as Penny. The difference is upside. Buchholz has the potential to dominate in the majors (as he did in 07 and has all season in AAA). Penny really doesn't have that upside right now. His best starts have been 6IP, 2-3ER. On the flip side, Penny has had a bunch of awful outings (including this one today). I mean, Clay, in his one start this season, performed as good as Penny's best start this season. It's a complete risk/reward. I think Clay is at no worse a risk as Penny, but he has a much greater reward. Also, I'm not so sure I'd want to trade or Halladay. If it was Buchholz straight up, than, yeah, I'd take it. However, it will likely take a lot more than just Buchholz and I'm not sure it would be worth it. Halladay is 32. We would likely have about 4 (+/-) more dominant season from him. With Buchholz, we could have yet another future Ace for the next 10 years, plus the other prospects we'd still have that would have been included in the trade.

I'd be tempted to keep him around until Dice-K comes back. We still aren't sure how he will perform when he gets back from the DL. It would nice to have him as insurance. However, it's hard to argue against having Buchholz in our rotation instead of Penny or even Smoltz (though he probably will turn it around soon). Even if Dice-K doesn't get it together this season, Buchholz and Smolts should be able to hold down the 4 and 5 spots. I'm sure the Sox are looking around to see what they might be able to get for Penny, I think they will likely trade him (I think its a no doubter if Dice-K is ready before the trade deadline).

The problem with comparing the $18-$20 million a season the Sox were offering Tex to the money Bay should get is that Tex is a better overall player. He has gold glove caliber defense and is a better hitter (and almost 2 years younger). I will admit though, he might also have the benefit of ballpark-inflated numbers (playing TEX and Coors East), as his road splits (OPS in general) are .107 points lower than at home. $14 million is probably just too cheap right now. It would be a good hometown discount, but that's only if Bay is willing. $16-$18 million would probably be about his market price, although when the Yankees get involved, it could always get much higher.

It's tough. If I were Theo (which, thankfully, I'm not) I would sign him now if it was for $16 million a season or less. If he wants more money, than I wait until later into the season or after the season. If he is producing through August or finishes the season well, I'd probably give him the $18 million. I doubt I go more than that (unless, of course the Yankees were the other bidders, then its a problem. I don't think you can let Bay and Tex go to the Yankees without adding some serious power ourselves, ie Holliday + corner infield power). I think the only way I would give Holliday $10+ million a season if A. he finishes the season strong or B. Theo REALLY thinks Fenway would be ideal for his swing.

Exactly. If we could sign Holliday to a cheap contract, I'd be all for it. I just don't like the risk factor. If its a matter of Bay at $15 million a year vs Holliday at $8-$10 million, I'd have to go with Bay. If we can get Holliday for under $8 million, than I wouldn't be too sad to see Bay walk, especially if we added some power to the corner infield as well. Also, the splits I looked at were ONLY for the top hitters (or good+) for Colorado. I ignored the average to below-average hitters because it is normal for them to be worse on the road than at home. I don't think Helton, Atkins, Tulowitski, and Castilla to be bad hitters, I just think that they aren't as good as their numbers suggest. It could just be that those guys don't hit well on the road, but it makes more sense that it is the ballpark, not the players. Compare the Rockies top hitters splits to the Red Sox good hitters (of the last 8 years) and it becomes more apparent. While the team hitting DOES perform notably worse on the road, the good hitters don't. Manny Ramirez, Ortiz, Damon, Bill Mueller, Nomar, Nixon, Youkilis, and Bay all have very similar numbers on the road as at home (some have a slight drop, but it is slight, nowhere near as dramatic as the Rockies). The only guy that has a more drastic drop on the road is, funny enough, Pedroia. The Monster REALLY helps him (also Nomar, but to a lesser degree). It's definitely a worry, but only when you talk about signing the guy to big money. If he comes cheap, it won't matter. If he is really just a .281, .351, .450, .801 hitter than $6 or $7 million wouldn't be a bad contract, especially considering he is pretty good defensively.

See, I'm not sure Holliday is worth the risk of a 5 year/$75 million deal. I went and compared Holliday's home/away splits to a bunch of similar hitters (Bay, Hawpe, Wright, Matsui, Miguel Cabrera, Abreu) as wells as a ton of others (most of the elite) and found that the ALL posted close stats at home vs away. It seems that most good/great hitters will perform roughly the same on the road as at home. Now, I also looked up the stats of a bunch of Rockies hitters and the majority had HUGE differences in the home/away split. Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins, Tulowitski, Vinny Castilla, etc. I found that they had ridiculous numbers at home and very average to below average on the road. The average difference in OPS is pretty astounding. Helton: 1.106/.890, Atkins:.901/.738, Tulowitski: .863/.724, Castilla: .989/.797 (actually, that .797 INCLUDES Coors field. Its his 490 games at Coors compared to his career total). That's a combined difference of 0.178 (not including Holliday). The full team splits of the Rockies reflect this, although I'm not sure that is all that telling (plenty of Sox teams were also terrible on the road). However, I don't think you can ignore the fact that every good hitter (except Hawpe, he's the only Rockie's power hitter with similar home/away splits) has been significantly worse on the road. Although Holliday could just be going through a funk or adjusting to the league, his stats this season just about match his career road stats. Maybe Fenway could make him mash like at Coors, maybe not. I certainly don't think it's worth risking more than $8-$10 million a year.

Could we ship JD Drew out of town and make his stupid contract disappear and sign both, Holliday and Bay? (I can dream, right?) His home/away splits do scare the hell out of me, though: Home: 400 G 89 HR 331 RBI 254 SO .348 AVG .417 OBP .626 SLG 1.043 OPS Away : 384 G 48 HR 197 RBI 307 SO .281 AVG .351 OBP .450 SLG .801 OPS

NO. New York will ALWAYS compete at a very high level because they have $. They don't ever need a rebuilding year. The occasional off year can happen, but that's about as bad as it will ever get.

Yes, we are all winners, there are no losers! Of course, a Red Sox win is more important/gratifying, but ANY rival loss is important as well. It isn't just limited to the Yankees. The reason why there is generally a lot more animosity toward the Yankees is because they are SO good. They ALWAYS will compete and be extremely difficult to beat. They also have a long history of stealing our players and there is really no other bidding war as intense as between the Yankees and Red Sox.

A long history of blister trouble (as recent as 07) isn't cause enough?