jacksonianmarch

Joba has a lot more upside than you give him credit for. The guy is only 25 and showed at the end of the yr, he can still get his FB up to 98mph. He's still a great prospect, but I do think a change of scenery could be good for him. Also, if Nova goes and we do get Liriano.... 1. Sabathia 2. Hughes 3. Liriano 4. Burnett 5. Garcia I split up the lefties, but that rotation can win you a world series. If we got Liriano, I think we'd jump past Boston for AL East favorites

Hot stove season is over, so that thread should be retired.... Also, I figured out how to change the title. So once a new rumor comes about, I can change the title. On the trade front, Jim Bowden thinks the Yankees will acquire Liriano within the next 2 weeks with either Joba Chamberlain or Ivan Nova as the front man in the deal. I would DEFINITELY do that deal http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/13122/trade-watch-2011-francisco-liriano-nova-joba

Not to be outdone, Manny Banuelos face VMart, Peralta and Inge and set them down 1-2-3 with 2 strikeouts.

Not sure why it took him 11 times to get into the hall. .295BA, 407HRs and 1300RBIs in Brooklyn during multiple pennant seasons and 2 WS champs

The way that I think about it is this. We could get very lucky. Good health, a bounceback yr from AJ, progression into #2 for Hughes and solid performances out of Nova and Garcia. We all know that those all wont happen. Someone will get hurt. Hughes might stay as a mid rotation starter for 2011. AJ's woes might continue. Garcia and Colon could be off the roster by April and Nova could show some significant jitters as a rookie. Regardless, I think that something in the middle will happen. And if that is the case, lets postulate.... Let's say... CC has good health Hughes makes progression AJ continues to be a 5ERA pitcher Nova shows he can be a 4.50ERA pitcher in the majors Garcia's shoulder rips apart and a parade of rookies ensues. That's a 60% success rate for the season in the rotation. I'd take that, more than half broke right. In that scenario, we still need a big league starter. So, in all likelihood, we are gonna need a big league starter. Then you need to look at what players you want and what you are willing to give up... 1. Top shelf- These are the aces of aces. Sabathia, Lester, Felix, Lee, and maybe a few more. This is the elite of the elite. Right now, none are on the table, although by the beginning of 2012, I expect one of these pitchers to be available. So, let's say Felix comes available in 2011. What would you be willing to give up? For me, this is the ONLY move that is appropriate to include Montero in. For this one, you'd need 4 players going back to Seattle A. Jesus Montero B. A choice of Chamberlain, Betances, Brackman, or Banuelos C. Second tier starter like David Phelps or Hector Noesi D. Second tier offensive player like Brandon Laird Then you have your top of the rotation starters. Guys who anchor a good staff and in NY would slide in well into the #2 spot, but arent the elite. This is where Liriano fits into. His stuff is electric, but his warts make his reliability a bit sketchy. For Liriano, I wouldnt include Montero or Banuelos, but it will be a 4 player deal A. Betances, Brackman, or Chamberlain B. Second tier starter like Phelps, Noesi, Warren, etc.. C. Keeping Montero allows you to deal Romine here D. Second tier relief prospect like Mullee, Flannery, Duff, etc. Then there are the good pitchers who are either past their prime or not dominant enough to lead a staff. This is where I would put Carpenter and Carmona. For these guys, only Brackman from the B's is included and it's only a 3 player deal A. Brackman B. Laird or Melky Mesa C. second tier starter This is how I look at our trade proposals and they will certainly change come mid season. But we have the Killer B's who are all ace potential pitchers in the high minors, plus a massive plethora of mid range pitchers who safely project into the middle of a rotation. And, IMO, we could get one of these deals without coming close to gutting our farm

Just saw some of his pitches off a Yankee website. Hoo boy. 95-97 with a knee-buckling curve. He has awesome stuff

I didnt get to watch it. But I saw he struck out the side and walked one. Not bad. If we were to get Liriano, I think he'd be the guy to go.

I agree that it doesnt seem to make sense on the surface. But I read an article when this first broke about how the Twins think they will get more if they deal him with a full yr left on his contract. I have a feeling the Twins are going to deal him by the start of the 2012 season. And if they drop out of the race early, I have a feeling he gets moved. He isnt resigning in Minny, we all know that, but I doubt he gets moved this spring or even until July at the earliest

Continued rumors about Liriano today. Sounds like Yankee scouts are watching him and the Twins scouts have been watching the Yanks.

Of course he doesn't have Felix's stuff. Nobody does, but I think he has Felix's ceiling in terms of effectiveness. Regardless, I meant Felix as an ace and Hughes potential as an ace

Hughes has ace potential. Felix is an ace. Not sure what there is to laugh at

Hughes for Felix doesnt help the Yankees all that much. And no, I am not saying that Hughes is Felix's equal. But Hughes has Felix's ceiling and already fills a pretty important role in the rotation. Hughes is out. Any trade for Felix starts with Montero. It would be a 4 prospect trade with Montero at the top, IMO. My guess is that one top notch pitcher goes, and I'd give them a choice between Joba or Betances. After that, I'd go out of the top 5 in our org for the final 2 spots. Maybe Noesi and Brandon Laird

I think Ellsbury is going to steal more bases. Stolen bases is a kids game and Ells is much younger. My guess is Crawford starts to hit for a little more power as his SBs start to tick off a little

Exactly. Remember, the HOF committee are stat junkies. 3000 hits is a guarantee. Then factor in his power, patience and speed and you really need to consider it a likelihood. I bet he goes in as a Royal, but there is an outside chance he could go in as a Red Sox

SRs on him say he has a good contact skill, plus speed, range, glove and arm, and next to no power. My guess is he starts in AA this yr

Top 50

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2011/2611316.html 6 yankees in the top 100 with Montero, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos, Sanchez, and Romine

Carpenter is heading into a pricy option season for 2012, and if they are going to appease Pujols, they're gonna need to turn down that option.

Johnny Damon is a conservative prediction? Cmon man. Damon has 2500 hits, 212HR and almost 400 stolen bases. You'd jump for joy if he turned out to be Johnny Damon.

Now you are just being an ass. Of course they wont win 108 games. I think they win themselves about 92-95 games again like last yr and win the WC. Look at it this way. The Yankee offense made sure that most games werent save-worthy as they only had 57 save opportunities, which is good for 18th in the game even though they had the 3rd highest win total in the game. But they blew 18 of those save opportunities. And only 5 of those opportunities were blown by Mo. So that leaves 13 save opportunities blown. Now, since a save entails the final 3 innings of a ball game, the leaves those 13 in the 7th and 8th innings. Adding Soriano should tighten that up a bit. Also, looking at the pen numbers, only 23 of our 95 wins came out of the bullpen, meaning that our starters won 72 games last yr. Now we had a bunch of them due to Vazquez being s*** and Pettitte being out, but we still saw 75% of our wins come from our rotation. Plus, our offense should be improved as almost half the lineup saw career worst seasons. I honestly think we see a higher win % out of the rotation (maybe 80% of our wins) because our offense should be giving our pitchers leads and a higher save % with a higher SvOpp (due to the decreased effectiveness of the back end of the rotation) based upon the additions of Soriano and Feliciano. If you assume that we win 95 games, that's 74 wins from our rotation. 67 from the top 4, then 7 more scattered about the 5 hole and scrubs. Its not too unrealistic if you go off the premise that you arent correcting for injury. Now, I know the numbers are high, but nobody can predict which guy goes down with injury. It is VERY rare that even the top 4 of a staff stays healthy through the entire yr.

You are looking solely at wins rather than things pitchers can control here. If you put this rotation on the Pirates, they win 40 games or less. The Yankees will be top 2 again in runs scored. Their pen will be top 5 in the game as well. And their defense aside from SS and RF is GG caliber all around. Not sure why this doesnt register for you. If the Yankee staff averages 6IP and 3ER per game, they're gonna win 2 out of every 3 decisions

Knowing Girardi, only the top 3 will be allowed to go past the 6th inning, and probably only CC and Hughes by midseason. I love our pen. Soriano and Mariano lock down anything past the 7th and Robertson, Joba, Feliciano, Logan and probably Mitre is a pretty good middle relief as well. I expect the pen to be absolutely lights out. My hope is that Girardi doesnt lean on them too too much or else they'll be burnt out by October

From the sounds of it, it doesnt look good. Might need TJS. If that is the case, then I can probably put Cris Carpenter in a Yankee uniform by July

How do they win more games? Pettitte was injured and threw only 120IP last yr and our bullpen wasnt nearly as good especially in the first half of the season. I also think that the offense will be better this yr as well.

In the playoffs, though, we need one more starter. Once you start facing good lineup and elite pitching in a short series, you need someone who projects to throw up better numbers than a mid 4's ERA