jacksonianmarch

Hamels the last 4 seasons... 856IP 740H 284ER 810K 205BB 2.99ERA 1.10WHIP 8.5K/9IP 2.1BB/9IP 4.0K/BB Those are ridiculous numbers, regardless of league. He turns 31 in December and is signed only for 4 more yrs. If he hit the open market this offseason, he'd get a 7 yr deal easy

Agreed. MLB has a culture issue. The PED scandal and continued probes into star players has lost the casual fan, IMO. The reason behind that? Well, when offense is up, people watch. The die hard may love a 1-0 well pitched and defended game, but the casual fan wants to see balls fly out of the yard. Baseball has always been regional as well. A Yankee fan who is disappointed in this season might rather watch NCIS or something like that than watch a baseball game that has no impact on your team. But if the Yankees are in it? The ratings skyrocket. I understand Selig wanting to get the lower market teams into the playoffs and on level ground, but in doing so, he is cutting off the revenue stream. Everyone watches the big bad wolf in the playoffs. Last yr it was Boston. The years before, it was the Yankees. This yr, who is it, LA? Nobody on the east coast gives a s*** about a team that hasn't won in 26 yrs, no matter how much they spend. I think baseball is better when every team has a chance. I think the owners enjoy it more when the big boys are there in the playoffs. We'll see who wins out in the end

Haven't you gone down that road a few too many times? Lowrie finally played 150+ games in 2013 and produced rather well (2.3WAR, .790OPS). And how did he follow up such a rigorous season? With the lowest OPS of his career (in more than 40 games) and an anemic as s*** WAR of 0.8 (per ESPN). Throw in the fact that he is gonna be 31 next yr and he doesn't play a great SS either and you have a guy who is probably going to get a good contract due to positional dearth of talent who is more than likely going to spend that contract either underperforming or injured. I really, really, really hope he isn't the "answer" for us either

I'm glad Lester gets to save his arm. His resume is over as far as this contract goes. My guess is the bidding is gonna be insane

Kelly averaged 6.1IP per start and had a WAR of 0.3 in 10 starts. He was on pace for a 0.9WAR should he have pitched that way for 30 starts. He's a #3 starter on a horrendous team. He's a #5 on a good team, and if he's your #3 next yr, you should expect the same outcome as this yr

Fred, there is no quick fix for either NY or Boston. It should be a slow rebuild process. You bring in a few new guys, see how they acclimate, make a couple signings and maybe make that one big trade that puts you over the top. The thing is, there is no "big trade" that immediately puts you on the map. Your offense was abysmal and you have a rotation completely devoid of talent. And if you make the wrong move, it could set you back. You have a TON of talent, the question is, which guys make the big step. Think about it this way. Let's say you move Rubby, Betts, and Swihart for Stanton and Stanton lives up to the billing. But also consider if all 3 hit their ceiling and they're the guys who don't flame out, yet the others do, then the sox would be set back 5 seasons. Not all of the rookies are gonna hit. If you trade away the ones that do, then you could be f***ed.

I told you guys at the beginning of the season, but nobody wanted to listen. Now everyone is saying it loud and clear. 2013 was a total aberration. You had guys who were over the hill returning to elite status, guys having career seasons, injuries turning questionable positions into strengths, etc. Then you had quite possibly the best post season performance offensively of all time in the WS by a 38 yr old overweight DH. It's like the guy at the craps table who rolls a 7 ten times in a row. You appreciate the cash he won you, but you cannot expect it again. You definitely got worse when Ells left. You also replaced your catcher with a known cancer in AJ Pierzynski. The big thing the sox had in 2013 that a lot of others didn't have was depth. Well, losing Ells and replacing him with Sizemore didn't help. The kids were relied upon out of the get go without a viable veteran alternative. You then f***ed up the one rookie who was producing by signing Drew, even though the guy hadn't played for 4 months. A blind man saw this coming. That being said, winning the WS allowed the sox to feel this season out. Imagine if you had won 75 games last yr, there'd be a fire in the streets and Cherington's head on a pole.

Jon Lester is starting a playoff game against the Royals. Edge: Jon Lester- he's the Andy Pettitte of our time. The guy is gonna win A's over KC Giants over Pirates Dodgers over Cardinals Tigers over Orioles A's over Angels Nats over Giants Dodgers over Nats Tigers over A's Dodgers over Tigers (needless to say, I am rooting for a KC-Pirates WS, but I don't see it happening)

And building on the Headley thing, look at his stats the past few seasons. 2010- 3.6WAR 2011- 2.6 WAR 2012- 6.0 WAR 2013- 2.1 WAR 2014- 3.5 WAR 2012 is the outlier, but he's a pretty consistent 2.5 to 3.5 WAR player. And in NY, he had a .769OPS, akin to his career of .756. He's not the MVP candidate he was in 2012, that's an Ellsbury 2011 season, ie never happening again. But he's a pretty consistent .260/.350/.400 player at a position with a dearth of offensive talent around the league and BTW, he plays elite defense. He's gonna get a contract that most people wont predict. The sabremetric community will be throwing $12-$15 mil a season at this guy

If he gets a 1 yr pillow contract, it will be in the Bronx. I think ideally, the Yankees would love to see what he can do when he has a completely healthy season. But I think he gets a 3 yr deal on the market due to offensive upside and elite 3b defense. I had no idea he was as good defensively as we saw in his short tenure in NY. He was awesome with the glove

Victorino is going to be in your starting OF next yr. If the sox are trying to win, then a healthy Victorino makes your lineup dangerous. And if you are trying to team build, building Vic's value up for a midseason trade can only help you. I am guessing that your OF will be a rotation of Castillo, Betts, Cespedes, and Victorino. Allen Craig might be your 3b, by the way. He's played it through the minors and a couple times in the bigs. If he has anything left, then it cannot hurt to try it. If he sucks, then you cut him. If he hits, then you can deal him at the deadline

Betts and Owens are your best trade chips. I don't think Xander has near the value he had a year ago, although he showed in September that he has the potential to be great. I don't think there is a chance the sox move Xander because theyd have to accept 50 cents on the dollar. SO either you're filling out your rotation via FA (unlikely) or you're gonna make deals via trade. If you do, Betts is gone, and depending on the player, Owens might be with him

Wasn't Stuart the guy who said he lost a grounder in the sun?

They could. If their big pitching signing is Lester and their big offensive signings are either guys currently on the squad (Headley or McCarthy) or guys without draft pick comp (Lester, Tomas) then we could very well improve dramatically and keep our picks. I am adamant about the QO and walk for Robertson, though. He's gonna get a 3-4 yr deal on the open market and we don't need him. If there is one thing our farm is deep in its the relief pitching. We already have a 7-8-9 bridge in Kelley, Warren and Betances.

Girardi is gonna get an extension. This team had no business being above .500. We lost 80% of our starting rotation for a period of 2-3 months or more apiece. Our #6 lost 3 months as well. The funny thing is, the FO operated brilliantly from opening day until now. Their pre-season and off-season acquisitions were what killed us

We'll see how "stupid" the farewell tour is when Ortiz has his next yr. Also, these "farewell tours" raise hundreds of thousands of dollars for their charities. In the end, it's a good thing.

That was f***ing crazy. The atmosphere was amazing

I paid a lot of money to go to tomorrow's game. I hope to hell it isn't rained out

If there is a correlation with higher velocity pens, why has the ERA of the pen been EXACTLY the same for the past 2 seasons (3.59)? And why would 2012 have been only slightly higher (3.67)? The biggest change has been in the starters. 2012- 4.19, 2013-4.01, 2014- 3.84. But you can continue to cling to your idea, which is not supported by evidence. I do know of a certain guy who comes down chimneys on Christmas, though, if you like fairy tales

The OBP wasn't significantly better than the #24 team in baseball. Their R scored were the #26 in baseball. I'd say that's a close correlation

OBP is the most important factor. But, having no power whatsoever drives down run scoring ability. The sox have the 15th OBP in the game, they're the median for the most part. That being said, the delta between them and the #24 team is .007, ie not a difference for the most part. The Red Sox, OTOH had the 25th SLG in baseball and the worst in the AL. The delta between them and the median team (Houston) is 0.02, which is a bit more significant. The delta between them and the 29th team (Atlanta) is .003, ie not significant at all. So they're only signiciantly better than the bottom 6 teams in OBP and barely better than the worst team in the game in SLG. Put that together and they have the 23rd OPS in baseball, and only 0.010 above the 27th worst team in baseball. Makes sense that theyre the #26 team in baseball in R.

Not every team has the power pen and some that do have guys who are hittable. Driving pitch counts up and getting on base directly correlate to runs.

Prado was a hell of a pickup. We sold high on a power only prospect and got a versatile guy who can actually hit. He's a useful piece on this team

You have to start him. If he throws two solid starts up there with no pain, then you can be relieved that he should be ready for game action in 2015. If he cant recover from those two starts, then he needs TJS

Getting a pitcher like Cueto is gonna cost you a TON. And you don't have a Drew Smyly to deal for him. If you have a young player in the same position who is doing well in the bigs, then that's a Smyly. You have to pay more if you are gonna go prospects only. And this yr was a good yr to find that high upside guy who could be flipped. Rubby, Webster, Ranaudo, Workman, and Kelly haven't been good this yr. Turning around and dealing them wont be as big as dealing a guy like Smyly