jacksonianmarch

We are hitting .194 in September with a .641 OPS, good for 26th in baseball in the final month. Our staff has puttered along with a 4.28 ERA this month, right around the middle of the pack. Our pitching can improve, but the offense has been a prime let down. Last night, Boone played it like a playoff game. Sevy gets pulled in the 6th after allowing the first run of the game and a pitch count around 80, yet we didn’t get our first hit off Jake Odorizzi until the 8th f***ing inning. This team reminds me of 2015. Strong all year then fade hard late, still make the WC but face a team with an opposite trajectory

Right now, this dog don’t hunt

Over milking it? Waiting til the second week of September to build him up isn’t over milking it. That’s dangerous unless he was really hurt

DD did make a tactical error. Considering Kelly and Hembree as depth is the error. Hembree isn’t good. Kelly runs really strangely hot and cold. Most good relievers have good runs with a few mixed in blowups. Kelly has a big run followed by a sustained run of suck. That’s not great as a reliever. Barnes was having the run of his life before it came crashing down on him lately. Brasier is the only “reliable” guy out there and he was a minor leaguer in Japan last year, hardly a pedigree to pin your playoff hopes on. Thing is, DD has always made this error. He gets the flashy closer then tries to be cute with the pen. It’s burned him in every post season since he ran with Detroit. It will burn him again. The question is, will it burn him enough to knock you guys out?

WAR also tells us that Bogaerts is the vastly superior player

Speaking of Sale, the Sox got even more out of that deal. Kopech just went down with a UCL tear. He’ll miss all of 2019 and since he was just called up, all of it accrues under big league time. They’re gonna lose over a year of control while he recovers

Pedroia had another surgery in July and is out for the season.

You don’t see a lot of 18 year olds in long season. That’s the difference. He’s now 20, to be 21 by opening day next season. He’ll likely head to High A where he’ll be a year or so younger than the average player

And the team linked to him the most has a ridiculous short porch in RF that he has used a few times as well

If Sale is healthy, I'd say yes. You're lined up for the 1 seed barring a catastrophic collapse. If the Yanks take the game, you'll be facing a team that is either still injured or recently healthy. If you face Oakland, you'll be facing a rebuilt team with literally no starting pitching who you should have some fun high scoring games against.

He definitely was overhyped. He was young with electric stuff who just debuted in A ball and held his own. He didn't dominate. Everyone saw the stuff and dropped their jaw. DD capitalized on this. Look at most minor league clubs now 3 years later. Most farms have guys like Espi who have insane stuff yet haven't polished or harnessed it yet.

Agreed. I think he is an above average defensive SS who has elite bat skills for the position

It will be interesting to see what Machado gets. I think with Bogaerts able to point to his better D at SS, he might be able to get his deal or better.

They've been interesting in the Kelly regime. We haven't had a good QB at all. From Golson to Zaire and Wimbush, we have had run first guys with big arms and little to no accuracy. This has limited us. Our O lines have been good. Our WR's and RB's are all skilled. Our defense has had good D lines with hit or miss secondary's. If we could only start drafting QB's who could actually win the game with their arms, we might make some hay. We aren't gonna go through this bear of a schedule undefeated, We rarely ever win at USC, so that is probably gonna be true

I just looked up his UZR/150 over the past few years. From 2015-2018, he has a cumulative UZR/150 of 2. He is barely above average, but that's pretty good, especially with what he brings to the table

Typically, the team that flames out a few times and adds to its roster finds a way to get better. The 95 Yanks lost in the WC after having a lead, then went on to build a dynasty. The Astros won the WC play in and lost to the eventual WS champs in 2015, missed the post season in 2016 and won the whole thing last yr. The Royals went to the WS in 2014 and lost before winning it in 2015. The Cubs were swept in the 2015 NLCS before winning it all in 2016. Interestingly, if the Yanks win the play in game, the final four standing in the AL will be the same as last year with the seeds changed.

Espi had TJS, which is more a right of passage these days. The jury is still out on him, clearly. The kid turns 21 in March, so he is still young, and he should be fully healthy entering the post season training program.

Xander has quietly shown his worth. He's a good defensive SS with power and the ability to hit for a good average and take a walk. He's fast enough not to be a slog on the bases either. Fangraphs sees his worth so far this year at over $32 mil. I don't think the fangraphs worth is what he will end up with, but if he repeats this year again next year, it will probably be accurate. 4+ WAR SS's who can hit in the middle of the order and play good D at the age of 26 are rare to see in FA. He's gonna get a monster of a deal

I agree, it all ends up a crap shoot. If the best teams won with regularity like basketball, rings would be in Washington, but they aren't.

And this one doesn’t seem to have that quality, I agree

Tanaka and Happ have been very good. CC has alternated good starts with bad. Sevy has been terrible. I can live with CC as the 4 with Tanaka and Happ in the top 3. We need Sevy to snag the 1 or 2 starter role

Every top 4 team in the AL is loaded for bear. The only one with really no major warts IMO is Houston. They’ve got offense, speed, starting pitching, middle relief, and a damn good (albeit awful person) closer in Osuna. The Yanks bugaboo over the season as a whole has been SP and timely hitting. The Sox only weakness is middle relief, otherwise they’re deadly everywhere else. The Guardians have offense, but you’ve also got to remember that their best pitcher is likely out for the year (Bauer). Kluber, Carrasco and Clevenger is a solid 1-3, but Bauer in there would really have put a solid top 4 out there. The Guardians have improved their pen with Cimber and Hand, but they need Miller in the middle and Allen to not blow it as bad as he’s done this year. Their offense is loaded and consider how crazy it’d be with Donaldson, who’s already on a rehab assignment. The Sox, you all know them. Premium offense, speed, and now defense with Kinsler at 2b. The SP is a shade below Houston’s in terms of depth, but that’s assuming Morton is healthy and right now he isn’t. Middle relief will be the Sox only bugaboo as Kimbrel is about as good as it gets. You’re gonna see what Brasier is made of, as I expect him to be heavily used in clutch situations. And in depth on the Yankees, our ace has fallen down for the second year in a row. We got Sevy squared away after his WC debacle, but we will need him for more this time. Happ, Tanaka and CC are a solid 2-4, but we need Sevy to be Sevy. He’s the only 1 of the four who can dominate even when he’s a little off. The other guys are touch and feel pitchers and don’t have large margins for error. The offense has been putrid sine Judge went down. Didi returns tonight. The team of the last 6 weeks will likely not be the team that plays in the playoffs, but that’s not a give . The Yanks have the biggest boom or bust potential of all 4 teams as they’re slated for a one game play in and have played like s*** since Judge dropped out. Our pen, which really put us in a good place for the playoffs, has also taken a hit since we lost our best guy in Chapman. He’s a big key for us. As it is, injuries have limited our ceiling and if we don’t get healthy, we may get lucky in the WC game, but we’ll get wiped out by the sox

Harper was not really college. He graduated a year early from HS, so he enrolled in JuCo.

It is. Playing it at home is always best. I think we’d throw Happ or Tanaka as Sevy hasn’t been himself and the two fat guys are unpredictable

My condolences Youk. It is an all too frequent reality for many families. Grieve as long as you must. Once you've gotten back from the campground, I will shed some light on why this crisis is so widespread. Shocking, unfortunately, and deadly all too consistently. Godspeed