jacksonianmarch

He definitely did what Ilitch wanted, but he is coming into Boston fresh off that experience doing the exact same thing he did there. He was brought in to win now and he did that. But he's left a farm in shambles and a cliff looming. The question becomes, does he get enough cash to keep the band together, or will he be forced to pick and choose? If he is forced to pick and choose, he might burn it down to rebuild it rather than stay in mediocrity while the Yankees rise meteorically

With so much talk about the sox impending cliff, one would need to look at the Yankees and say something similar albeit further into the future. With the unprecedented ascensions of Sanchez, Judge, Andujar, Torres, Severino, and to some extent Montgomery, the Yanks have shown how youth can be very useful in building a roster. Especially in building a roster around a mistake like Ellsbury. This surprise ascension allowed us to go out and get Stanton, who had 10 years left on his contract. And while Stanton has been good in 2018, he has been far from the elite level player he was billed as. Most guys struggle vs their averages in their first yr in NY, so he is likely headed for some improvement next season, but I digress. With so many big names out there and the big years being speculated, what impact would a massive contract have on the Yankees as they are currently constituted and as it pertains to their lux tax implications. As it currently stands, the Yankees project to be about $70 mil below the cap when considering their losses as well as the arb raises coming. While they are looking at losing Robertson, Happ, Sabathia and Gardner, they have some internal options to replace those guys, although they will most certainly have to dabble in the offseason free agent pool to stay around a 100 win team. Let's look at the impending losses and where a cliff might begin... After 2018 Sabathia, Happ, Lynn, Gardner, Robertson Notable arb cases- Gregorius (final), Hicks (final), Betances (final), Bird (1st time eligible, non-tender candidate), Romine (final), Gray (final) With the most productive pieces in pre-arb and the other guys not in the arb process stable in terms of cost, the Yankees will be adding. With Happ, Lynn, and CC falling out of the rotation and Gray seemingly losing his lunch on the Yankee mound, we will have some issues at the back end of the rotation. We will likely welcome one minor league starter in 2019 be it Swanson, King or Sheffield. With Sevy and Tanaka locked in at 1-2, we will need 2 other pitchers in the rotation. Gray might be one of them, but I doubt it. I would assume we will move Gray and bring in 2 pitchers. Either way, the end of 2018 will bring about the next wave of the build. After 2019 Chapman (opt out), Gregorius, Romine, Betances, Gray, Hicks Notable arb cases- Sevy (2nd), Judge (1st), Sanchez (1st), Green (1st), Montgomery (1st) With a lot of damage done last off-season, the Yanks will likely focus on bringing back some of the assets moving away. The Yanks have already reached out to Didi to re-sign him. I would assume they make a run at Hicks as well. They likely let Betances and Gray walk while bringing back Romine. Chap can opt out, but if his knee issue flares up between now and his opt out, he may keep the last two years of his contract. If Chap does opt out, the Yankees may bring back Betances or look to use some of their minor league talent to fill in. Thankfully, Montgomery should be fully healthy and ready to resume his career in the middle of our rotation After 2020 Tanaka, Ellsbury, Stanton (opt out) Notable arb cases- Sevy (third), Judge (2nd), Sanchez (2nd), Green (2nd), Andujar (1st), Holder (1st), Torres (1st), Montgomery (2nd) With the arb cases piling up, getting out from Ellsbury's contract is a god send. We will likely see another big foray into the free agent market as Tanaka comes up on free agency. This is probably the penultimate push into the FA market before we really start to look at extending home grown core talent like Sevy and Judge After 2021 Chapman (if not opted out) Notable arb cases- Sevy (fourth), Judge (3rd), Sanchez (3rd), Green (3rd), Andujar (2nd), Holder (2nd), Torres (2nd), Montgomery (3rd) This is the final year before the major free agents start to pile up. If Chap hadn't already bowed out, his contract ends here. This means our team likely eats his contract to pay the arb eligible guys. We likely make a final foray into free agency on a shorter term deal to get ready for the hell that is to come After 2022 Severino, Judge, Sanchez, Green, Montgomery Notable arb cases- Andujar (3rd), Holder (3rd), Torres (3rd) This is where I can see a cliff upcoming. If we don't draft and develop well in the interim and go bonkers after 2018, then we will have trouble maintaining beyond 2022. It will be hard to keep the band together if we already have more than just Stanton on the roster. Sevy, assuming good health and shaking the recent poor run, is shaping up to be a huge pitcher long term. Judge will get a monster deal. If Sanchez hits again, so will he. Andujar and Torres will cost a boatload in arb as well. After 2023 Andujar, Holder After 2024 Torres That's the breakdown going forward. Good drafting and development got us to where we are now. If it stops abruptly, we will fall apart after 2022. If it doesn't, maybe it continues

The average AA player is a touch over 24. AAA is almost 26.

Take a look at every team DD has left and that's the kind of cliff he leaves. He won the title in Florida, but the cost was too high for Huizenga and he burnt it to the ground. In Detroit, he built it up then propped it up as long as he could before it fell down. Now it is scorched earth and will be for years. DD doesn't leave space for mediocrity. He will either burn it all down or build it up as high as it can go.

Slasher, I have spoken to many a sox fan. While they are aware that the sox have been the better team, they also know the randomness of the MLB post season and the idea of the Yanks partying in Fenway at the end of the ALDS is far too much to bear. Let's be honest, you've become a true A's fan since the Sox effectively wrapped up the division

It's real for every team to be totally honest. You can prop up a cliff with cash, but eventually you tumble down. With the economic penalties as they are now, cliffs are inevitable for all franchises

I was about to say Judge, but Judge was well below Dalbec's line this year. He struck out over 30 more times than Judge's career minor league high. Once Judge got to the bigs, he struck out far more. Dalbec is striking out around the same level as Joey Gallo. While Gallo brings premium power, his contact rate is so low that it drives down his OBP. Interesting to say the least, but I don't think one can really expect Dalbec to be a top tier level player

Let's put it this way, can he adequately defend a premium defensive position or is he a liability? I think all the numbers come together to show a positive defensive WAR, which portends to above replacement level ability. Maybe that is below average, maybe it isn't, but I do think his agent and the league see Bogey as at least an adequate defender at SS. He will have a leg up on Machado in that regard. Machado wants to be a SS, but his defensive metrics as a SS are bad (-8 UZR/150). Machado is about to be paid handsomely, likely setting a record for an infielder. Bogaerts will be able to show he's a better defender. Also, the age difference for FA wont be extreme either as Machado is older than Bogey, and by the time his first game of his new contract is played, Bogey will be 9 months older than Machado will be next year. The other interesting thing is Bogey's OPS would have been Machado's career high coming into this season, so it isn't like he cant swing it. Manny is just going nuclear in his contract year, which is great for him. Ultimately, I think the similarities will be there and I expect Bogey to get close to what Manny gets

I liked our chances before July 25th or so. I thought the team was rounding into form with the kids really starting to hit and Bird looking like he had some life. Then we lost Judge, Didi and Chapman and our offense went into a spiral. Stanton had a solid month before entirely crashing. Our kids kept on chugging, but guys like Hicks and Gardner all but disappeared. We added Cutch, who until last week, hadn't done much. Didi comes back and then everyone goes into the tank yesterday, our pitching blows it the day before and we crush the Jays the day before that. We are out of synch. Judge coming back may add to that while he shakes off the rust. We need Chap back ASAP to lend stability to the roles in the pen. With no stability and with so many options, Boone has been paralyzed by analysis, seemingly swapping roles of everyone and not latching on to a single closer. This has led to all players falling apart. The finish here shows a lack of leadership and the changes to roles show a loss of stability. This falls on the manager. Boone should be managing for his job right now

You’ve got two years to win a title. Good luck

You’re way off. Bogaerts is a rare, young talent capable of playing a premium defensive position at least at an above average level while maintaining a middle of the order offensive profile. $25 mil will likely be a low estimate. Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball. He’s going to reset the market. He will top Davis and Chapman. My guess is a 5 yr $100 mil contract

Sale will hit the open market

The arb raises will be huge. Remember, Betts set a record before his stupid 2018 season. He's gonna set records again. Bogey will be in his final year, which is usually close to market. Also, the sox don't have any big league ready talent to replace any of the departing players.

I don't think you guys value Kimbrel as fans as much as the sox do. And I agree with the sox. With how unreliable your pen has been, having a closer who is just flat out dominant is a great thing for you. You need him.

I honestly don't think it matters. Our team is playing like they don't care. I've never seen a team destined to win 95+ games look so bad going into the playoffs. They look like they are planning their October golf outings. I am hoping Judge's return fixes this

You guys will be fine next year. If DD doesn't have the leash of that top tax bracket, he can re-sign Kimbrel and you guys can have pretty much the same club back next year. The problems come when multiple key players hit the market. After 2019- Martinez, Sale, Bogaerts, Bradley, Porcello After 2020- Betts After 2021- ERod After 2019, the contract of Fat Panda comes off, so you gain $18 mil. That $18 mil will get sucked into Beni, Betts, ERod and others arb contracts. In terms of replacing those 5 guys, the $70 mil or so the 5 guys going to FA will earn in 2019 will come off the ledger. To re-sign them, you'll need to shell out nearly twice that ($35 mil AAV for Sale, $30 mil AAV for JD, $25 mil AAV for Bogey, $15 mil AAV for Bradley, $18 mil AAV for Porcello) while also preparing to keep Betts. With the farm in shambles and the picks being moved back due to high spending, you'll either need to spend more to keep the band together or pick and choose. This is when the cliff comes in. Next year, though, you'll be another 100 game winner

I am beginning to wonder if Kelly's scheme requires a mobile QB.

It isn't going to happen. NYY is going to do exactly what they've been doing and will go 7-6 or so. TB will get a nice ribbon for their participation. This game isn't on Betances. Guys made contact but their contact was s*****. It happens. His pitches were sharp and had break. I am more upset with our offense, or lack thereof. We cannot go against a shitbox of a pitcher, get two runs early then quit. It just cannot happen. We have been on autopilot for two months now and while winning 95+ games is impressive, finishing strong is important and something they don't seem to give a s*** about

A few dinks and dunks.

We will see what they say. It’s too early to speculate. I’m just giving you the duration of grade two or three oblique strains

Depends on the site and the degree. If it’s an oblique and anything more than a grade 1, then he’s probably out for the playoffs. Abdominal strains typically last less in terms of duration. If he has another ab strain, I would be surprised if we hear about sports hernia surgery in the off season

Crickets for a reason. There’s literally nothing to talk about. The Yanks built a big WC lead and are now at a magic number of 5 to clinch the WC. The Sox have the division. Their opponent in the A’s is all but locked in. Home field or no, the team we are fielding right now doesn’t seem to be able to stay consistent. At least the offense has shown up the prior two games, although our pitching fizzled yesterday. We haven’t been able to put anything together. Chap returns next week. Judge is on the field and “should” be able to hit next week in games, but who knows how rusty he’ll be. The team has a weird vibe to it, a la 2015. I’m hoping they break out of it, but they’re tanking at the wrong time. I would say the age and workload is getting to the kids, but it’s the kids who are leading us. Guys like Stanton, Hicks, Gardner and Cutch haven’t been playing well of late. Sevy, up to his last start, has lost command. CC has fallen in a rut. We’re crawling to the finish. If we don’t find it soon, we’ll be one and done

I wouldn't say they suck. They're still on pace for nearly 100 wins. They are just so disjointed. The team around the ASB was bludgeoning teams or coming back late. This team doesn't score for long stretches and seems to give away at bats. Our pitching has been holding us in check, but they aren't built to be a starting pitching led team. I don't know if Boone should just rest the starters for 3 or 4 games and not give a s*** about home field or if he should push for it. Sounds like Judge will be back soon as will Chap. Injuries wont be an excuse anymore

Herrera is a shaky case. Herrera is down over 1.5mph from his peak, but his slider speed is WAY down, from his peak at 88mph down to 80.8mph. This has caused his K rate to plummet and his FIP to rise near 4 for the past 2 seasons. Now he is coming off a serious injury to his foot.

They look tired. Not good.