jacksonianmarch

Casas was drafted this year and missed the entirety of his debut season. He’s gonna be in the low levels next year. He’s 3-4 years away Grooms just had TJS and was in A ball. He’s gonna come back halfway through 2019 in low A. He’s 2-3 years away at best.

Rotoworld and Spotrac are disagreeing on when JBJ is a free agent. I usually use rotoworld. JDM will be a FA unless he has a catastrophically bad 2019. I would say you should hope JD opts out. That would mean he had a good 2019

I think the likelihood is the sox part with either Swihart or Leon (probably Leon) as well as Smith. I doubt they get rid of Workman. I also think Thornburg is cheap enough to at least see if he can regain his velocity. My guess is they will free up another $3.4 mil by non-tendering Leon and Smith

It isn't coming in 2019. The sox will have about $25 mil to spend this offseason, which they may put towards Eovaldi or Kimbrel or someone else. The big fall off comes after 2019, when Sale, JD, JBJ, Porcello, and Bogaerts become FA's.

MLBTR published their arbitration estimates. Price opted in. The following are the lux tax hits for all players on the sox as of right now or as projected by MLBTR Arb players: Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM Carson Smith (4.028) – $1.1MM Blake Swihart (2.164) – $1.1MM Contracts: Sandoval $18 mil Price $31 mil Pedroia $13.75 mil Martinez $22 mil Sale $15 mil Nunez $5 mil Porcello $20.62 mil Moreland $7 mil Vazquez $4.45 mil Consider there will be 18 pre-arb players on the list as well to round out the 40 man. That comes out to $10.8 mil. Add in medicals at $15 mil Right now, with the FA's rolling out and if there are no improvements, the sox cap number for 2019, assuming no extensions, signings and that the arb predictions are correct, stands at $219.32 mil. The cap for 2019 is $206 mil. The final threshold is $40 mil over that at $246 mil. If the sox spend to the threshold again in 2019, they will have $26.8 mil to spend this offseason

Happ is younger, healthier and better. He will likely be had on a multi year deal. I don't like the idea of Morton at this point. He finished the year with a shoulder injury and is only a year younger than Happ. I like Happ if we get another pitcher. We cannot roll into 2019 with CC and Happ as the only additions to our pitching rotation. Rumor has it that Kershaw is going to agree to a short term extension rather than opt out. Maybe a 3 yr deal instead of the 2 yrs left. So tick him off the list

They’ll ask for Devers. Realmuto is a rare beast who plays good D and can hit the s*** out of the ball. His offensive numbers should improve when he’s in a real lineup and at Fenway

Ben is one flash in the pan, lucky as hell 2013 season away from being a total flop on the field as a GM. This 2018 team had two consecutive ALE titles under their belts coming into the season then rattled off 108 wins and a 12-3 postseason record. That’s 120-57. Ben got lucky on the field. DD built a damn juggernaut. Ben was paralyzed as to when to go for it. When he did go for it, he rushed it and got Fas that weren’t top tier. He was afraid to deal from his surplus of minor league talent. DD took over and essentially said, “Hey kid, this is how you go for it.” I said early in his tenure that Dave’s tenure will be punctuated by a big rise and a huge fall, butnif he takes a title, he’ll be immortalized and his plan will have worked. 2018 did that for him

But we can do both. We already have the building blocks of a good rotation. A couple top prospects fighting it out for #5. A guy who’s been solid in regular season and nails in the postseason in Tanaka. A guy who’s been an all star level starter for two seasons who’s faded a bit down the stretch in Sevy. And in the wings, we have JMont, who had a really solid rookie campaign and adds a left handed dimension that helps combat our biggest foes. We need two spots filled. We need one top of the rotation type. Corbin fills that. So would Bumgarner or Kershaw. The other could be a guy like Happ who’d slot into the middle of a rotation and be good, although his age would point to a drop in production during his contract. We have some ridiculous sum of cash waiting to be spent. Why not go for it in 2019. Harper fixes a lineup that got far too right handed. We were dead vs power righties and we had the same look up and down the lineup. Pitchers got comfortable with the same look each time. There is something to be said about having to change your target when throwing anything that breaks. When you’re almost 100% right handed, it never changes. We need Didi. Hicks breaks things up a bit. We need a third guy batting from the left side vs right handed pitching. Harper would also be a huge Hr candidate here

Kimbrel isn’t accepting a QO. No way

The EEI guys had a good point with eovaldi. DD loves power starters. They’re wondering if DD goes hard after Eovaldi and moves on from Porcello, who he’d probably get a good return from on a one year deal

When Pedroia signed his deal, he left AAV on the table in exchange for years. He effectively earned the money coming to him already. I don’t begrudge him for collecting and trying to come back

He had the same injury Pedroia had. His knee will always be an issue. Rely on wright as much as you’d expect to rely on Pedey

You’re assuming wright will be ok with his knee the way it is.

Eduardo Nunez picked up his player option for 2019. He will make $5 million

Thornburg and Smith seem like prime DFA candidates. Nunez is at $5 mil and he’ll accept that option. No way he beats that after this season. He and Holt will be your Pedroia insurance I highly, highly doubt you see Pedroia again. Micro fracture is a bad surgery and he’s already had complications from it. He’s not young and as a smaller framed guy, doesn’t have the longevity that some of the bigger guys get out of the game. My guess is you’ll be dealing for another 2b come the deadline unless Holt proves he can be a full time player

Iglesias has the power DD is looking for, but he showed an uncanny ability to get taken deep. 1.5 HR/9IP is a lot, especially in the NL. Move him to Fenway and he might not be the right fit

Eovaldi is gonna get more than Rich Hill money. Hill was 35 when he signed. Eovaldi will be 29 in February.

Harper gets a bad rap with his Papelbon fight, but he’s a clean living Morton who drops bombs and reaches base at a stupid level. He’d be a heck of an add to this lineup. It would give us everything we need on the offensive side. Left handed OFer. In terms of pitching, Kershaw would be a great add, but if we are bidding with LA, it’s gonna be too expensive or too long. I’d rather be bidding against Arizona and other squads with less cash

The Eovaldi trade came while the league was still figuring out who he was after surgery. And while his ERA and peripherals were solid as a Red Sox, one must remember that he only threw 54IP in 12 games in Boston, 11 of those were starts and one 2IP relief appearance. In those 11 starts, he didn’t even average 5IP. Now part of that was his inconsistency and another may have been babying him a bit with a big lead and his injury history. The Sox didnt take the kid gloves off until the ALDS. He got on a run which earned him probably 8 figures per annum or more. He became, for 3 weeks, what everyone has been waiting for him to become. Beeks may end up a good pitcher. Eovaldi will likely go elsewhere and sign a lucrative deal. Either way, DD struck gold here

Pearce is gonna do what he always does. He’ll land with a s***** team or a team in need and get as much playing time as he can. Then he’ll either be useful on the trade market or implode. I can see a team like Baltimore sign him again and trot him out there to teach the kids how to play. I could also see him do that same in KC. If he is looking for a path to PT on a contender, Cleveland has EE at 1b and he’s a DH. Pearce could easily start there. He’d also make the most sense for CLE since the path to the title next year is gonna run through Boston and a lefty killer like Pearce would be better utilized against the Sox than for them. He’s gonna capitalize and earn some bank this offseason. I doubt it would be in Boston unless DD sweetens the pot and offers him years with a low AAV and a wink and nod deal to cut him when he wants to retire so he gets the whole deal. He is 35 and hasn’t really raked it in. He’s gonna go to the highest total bidder

Which is why I want to go after Corbin. He’s a guy who’s actually dropped some velocity but has gained effectiveness by cutting and running the ball. Less four season fastballs means less homers and more GB’s. Kershaw’s fastball is really straight which makes him homer prone and velocity dependent.

And if we are bidding against LA, the AAV will be around $35 mil and that doesnt make sense

Kershaw will opt out, but the dodgers did exactly what we did and got under the cap. They’ll spend too and a bidding war with LA would be counterintuitive

Happ is ok by me. Hard pass on CC. I’m done with toeing the line between mediocre and bad depending on how quickly the manager uses the hook. CC is a 5 inning reg season pitcher and a 3-4 inning postseason pitcher. If he’s the 5, fine. But if he’s the 4, that’s a hard pass. I’d be fine with Happ and Corbin