jacksonianmarch

I agree with you BH

Not sure he’s posted ace type numbers, but he’s clearly good. He’s a #3 with #2 type upside

You cannot make predictions about 2019 until you’ve got a reasonably good idea of what your roster will look like. I think the Sox will be good, but I have no idea who is moving on, coming in or what the spending will amount to. If they retain Eo, build up the back end of the pen and don’t have any mystery surgeries, then I’d agree

And in terms of farm building, Theo was a master of getting the comp picks for players and hitting on them. Ben wasn’t as good. Well, for big market clubs, those comp picks are far later. If the Sox lose Kimbrel, they get a comp pick after the fourth round due to their salary expenditures. That’s almost useless in return

This has become a very funny thread. “Farm systems are overrated” was just tapped into the comment section and reply was clicked. How in the ever living hell did anyone actually post that and be serious? The Sox built a farm system by being the worst team in the ALE 3 of 4 seasons. They used that farm system to either fill out their roster or deal off for marquis players. It is exactly the reason why you won the title. The dearth of good players in the farm system is why the cliff exists because home grown talent eventually becomes expensive and you need to select which guys to spend on. If your farm hasn’t generated appropriate replacements, then you’re looking at either spending a shitload or hoping for career years out of players. It has happened (2013) but it is a rare event. The Sox farm is desolate. With Groome down and Chavis using roids, the Sox are without a top 100 prospect. There are a few relievers in their minors that have good stuff and may end up making an impact. Otherwise, DD has done a reasonable job in the INTL market trying to build from the very bottom and grow a farm without high draft picks or very high INTL bonuses. It takes years for that. The INTL guys take 4-5 years to make it to AAA and usually need to be added to the 40 man well before you’d have them debut just due to their age.

Baseball is the only sport where a 70% fail rate is considered good. The low likelihood of hitting success lends to its ridiculous randomness

FsB, the more I look at Corbin, the more I like him. He didn’t keep banging his head against the wall to get a different result. He became a true 4 pitch pitcher and became the rare sinkerballer who racks up a stupid amount of K’s and a small amount of walks. A lot of sinkerballers intentionally pitch to contact, but Corbin doesn’t have to do that. If you hit him, you’re gonna beat it into the ground. But a lot of guys don’t hit him. The fact that he keeps the ball down is a huge hit for Yankee Stadium. We have seen power pitchers come to YS and become homer prone. If he keeps the same pitch mix and shows the same command, he will be very successful in NY. The Gardner signing effectively rules us out for Harper. I know Harper is WAY better, but with Stanton and now 6 OFers on the roster, Harper wouldn’t be a need unless we dealt someone off. The rumors are that we are all in on Machado, but a week ago the rumors were that we were “lukewarm” on him at best. That’s the hot stove for you. I honestly think the Gardner signing signals a willingness to see if Frazier can stay healthy and be a force in the bigs. The kid has talent for days, but becomes swing happy in the bigs and hasn’t been healthy. I wouldn’t be surprised if we were in on Kikuchi. He’s a lefty who has been entirely dominant until this past year. He’s got big time stuff and if we add he and Corbin to Tanaka and Sevy, we can have a pretty balanced rotation. Haven’t seen anything about us being linked to him, but it sounds like the best possible scenario

Corbin really changed who he was this past year. He came up a sinkerballer with good success. He was predominantly a 4 seamer/ sinker guy with a sub 20% slider. Now he’s an absolute enigma. He throws his slider more than any other pitch. His 4 seamer is used less than 20% of the time. He’s at 28% sinkers. He has added a curve that was very effective that he throws just a touch less than 10% of the time. The increased sinker usage, the drop in the 4 seamer rate and the speed change of that curve changed who he is as a pitcher. His 2018 should have been better when you look at FIP and xFIP.

Knowing what’s available on the FA market, who do the Sox go sign if they don’t sign Kimbrel?

Hanrahan, Gagne, Melancon, Bailey

Dombrowski has a problem with bullpens before coming to Boston. The first thing he did was get the best reliever on the market. In the past three years, Kimbrel has been a top 3 or 4 reliever in baseball, maybe the best when you co sided aggregate. If he decides to do a committee improvement or get a setup man to close, he will be weakening what had been a strength. Not everyone can close. Not everyone can handle Boston. Kimbrel can. If DD is keen on propping open this window, then re-upping Kimbrel or getting a top 5 reliever is in his best interest. You also need to deal with the loss of Kelly. He had been erratic but was awesome in the POs. Losing both without adding would be suicide for a team that will be a back end of a pen away from another title run

They did win one game

Then you s*** and s***

Kimbrel has been awesome the last 3 years. Boston is not an easy place to play. He did well there. Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t

Cole was effective in a mop up role. When pressed for more, he wasn’t effectivr

We have a need in the rotation and a wish list for the lineup, although no glaring need now. We have plenty of kids who throw cheese who can be pen arms. Green and Betances were both failed starters with big arms that transitioned well. We have far more of those coming down the pipe as well. I don't see the need to grab a 30+ yr old reliever for similar money to KRob rather than just re-sign KRob. I don't think we add anything to be totally honest. Our pen as is, is already deep Chapman Betances Green Holder Figure a pen now has 7 spots with 12 pitchers kept. German is out of options, so he will be out there. Cole will likely be out there too. Tarpley has the inside edge on lefty innings. I think we are full out there for now

Me too

Which is why the prediction is for $9 mil a year for him. If he hit FA after 2017, he’d have gotten $18 mil AAV easy

Cardinals. They expect Miller to return to Boston

Rivera never struggled finding the plate. Rivera struggled when he’d give up a couple jam shots and have a runner in scoring position with less than two outs. He’d rarely give up long balls or walks. But with how much contact he’d give up, he would get into trouble that way

So mlbtraderumors put out their predictions for the top 50. Clearly they’re guessing, but they have us getting only one starter in Corbin. They have us signing Ottavino as well. They have the Sox re-upping Eovaldi and signing Miller to close. I know they’re usually about 10-20% correct, but it surprises me that they don’t have us in on two starters, unless they think we’re gonna get one by trade. They have the Dodgers signing Harper and the Phils signing Manny

Interesting development. He had 2 yrs and $64 mil left. He gets only $29 mil in guaranteed money added on. He can add $4.5 mil per season in incentives. No further opt outs. This deal is one of two things to me. He either didn’t think he could stay healthy enough to hit the market or insist on another opt out, or he really wanted to stay in LA that badly. This is a great deal for LA

Andujar did tie the All time rookie record for the AL with 47 doubles. He led the bigs in rookie HRs with 27. He also hit .297. He’s the best offensive rookie. His defense let’s him down a bit, but I still think he takes home the award. A healthy Ohtani takes the award hands down, but he wasn’t.

Ian who?

I’d do that trade in a heartbeat, period. My biggest concern with sanchez isn’t his bat. He will hit. My question is whether he ends up a DH due to his inability to be an adequate receiver. Realmuto is a good defender and a good hitter.