jacksonianmarch

Brasier wasn’t on the bottom shelf. He was in the basement underneath the plastic bottles of scotch and surrounded by worn out beanie babies

He ain’t gonna be flying back a lot. Once the season starts, he’s in the US or Canada. The only chance he has will be the ASB. That’s it. He might as well try to win. He just joined a team that just blew itself up and doesn’t plan to contend for 19 and 20. His deal is a 3+1. Heck, if the M’s rebuild to their liking, Kikuchi may only be on the team for one good season before he hits the market again. More likely, Kikuchi will be on the team through 3 years of hell

This really baffles me, similar to the Ohtani crap from last year. The guy could have picked his team and may have even beaten the deal he will get in Seattle in a larger market. Yet they both chose s***** teams due to location. It isn’t like Japan is a stones throw away from the west coast. Yeah, it’s 5 hours closer by plane, but s***, it’s still an 11 hour flight from Seattle. What’s another 5 hours? I am beginning to wonder if the guys coming over are just happy to be big leaguers or if they really want to win something.

He may be an NFL quarterback. He may end up a good NFL quarterback. He just doesn't have the tools of an elite NFL QB. Arm isn't big, doesn't run incredibly well, takes some time with decisions. The thing about him is his accuracy. It is hard to teach that. But my concern for him is weapons. Yes, he has some, but he needs to be transitioned into a quick decision scheme with guys who can take the top off the defense and then guys who can run routes out of the slot to be an effective safety valve. ND took advantage of a lot of defenses with their big WR's. They jumped over and outmuscled smaller guys. Book was the king of the back shoulder 20 yard pass. Well, that is fine when your O line is manhandling the D line. But if you're gonna beat Clemson or Bama, you have to be quick. Their D lines are frequently populated with top 10 picks and you wont have more than 3 seconds to decide before getting whalloped

The fact remains that Cafardo was pitching a deal Betts "couldn't refuse". My point is that Betts is already expensive. He's made $10.5 mil in 2018. He is likely to see an $18 mil outlay in 2019. Even if he falls down a well or goes on a Ricky Williams ganja run in 2020, he will have earned $28 mil. It isn't like he's waiting for his pay day. Assuming all star level play in 2019, his 2020 will likely be in the $25 mil range. So, while he is controlled for 2 more years, you arent talking about cheap coverage. The kid is gonna be paid. Betts has also made it fairly obvious that he wants to hit the market, a la Xander. So you need to make an offer to Betts that takes into account 19 and 20 then offer what the going rate would be for a generational talent who hits FA at 28 yrs old. The going rate is going to be set by Harper and Machado. I am thinking Henry pays Betts what he would make in arbitration for 2019 and 2020 while adding a contract to Betts akin to what Harper gets. Also, by doing that now, the sox don't have to worry about the typical inflation that would go on two years from now when $35 mil might end up being $39 mil

He is also coming off labrum surgery, which means he is gonna be the knockoff, rusted model for 2019, not the shiny 2015 model

Yankee pre arb players 2019 Judge Torres Voit Andujar Sanchez Montgomery Holder

50%

It was an assessment of 2018. 29% of revenue spent on payroll is very, very low.

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2018/12/26/18155959/yankees-spending-budget-payroll-percentage-revenue-player-salaries-free-agents-steinbrenner-cashman This is a really solid article entailing the change in direction of the Yankees. Something fans likely will not be happy about, but so be it

Here’s the thing with Mookie. He has no real cheap seasons left. He’s gonna get $18 mil or so in 2019 and he’ll be mid $20 mil in 2020. It isn’t like they’re trading pre arbitration years where the guys make less than $1 mil. So I know it sounds like Mookie has to give up something, but he really doesn’t. If the Sox let Mookie hit the market, his price will be higher

Cafardo is reporting that the Sox are trying to extend Betts this off-season and may offer him something he cannot refuse. Now, Betts has already made some serious money due to his first run through the arb process and he’s due an even bigger raise the second time through. So, consider that he’s staring at about $29 mil total as earnings for 2018 and 2019, it isn’t like he’s gonna have to jump at a contract to set his family up. If you look at arb projections, in all likelihood, Betts is gonna make something like $42 mil via arb in 2019-2020 total. Then one must look at length beyond that. Betts will be 26 for pretty much the entire 2019 season. As it stands, he’s due to hit FA as a newly turned 28 year old, meaning he’s going to be staring 10 year deals in the face. So the length for Betts to not test the market would probably need to be an insane 12 years to keep him from hitting the market. Now, let’s talk financials. The highest paid position player in 2019 was Mike Trout at $33.75 mil. That isn’t AAV, just take home. But there is the pesky contract situations for Machado and Harper that complicate things. Betts was better than both last year. As a matter of fact, Betts 2018 was better than anything Machado or Harper ever put up. (Betts 10.4 WAR, Harper 2015 9.3 WAR, Machado 2015 6.6). So he’s going to want to surpass them in FA money. Let’s say for arguments sake, Harper gets a $34 mil AAV in his deal. Then there’s opt outs. The Sox already have Betts for the next two based on arb rules. They won’t be terribly inclined to offer such a massive deal and have a three year opt out. Maybe they have a four year opt out, allowing the Sox to keep him until he turns 30 and have him seek a new contract then if he’s still posting HOF numbers. That being said, since Betts isn’t a FA, they don’t have to front load his deal since the arb contract will actually back load his earnings if he went year to year. So here’s my best guess as “an offer he couldn’t refuse”. 12 years. $395 mil. Opt out after 4. Payouts as such. 2019- $20 mil 2020- $25 mil 2021-2030- $35 mil I think that’s an offer he cannot refuse.

Love is gonna declare. He is an absolute beast and a true shut down corner.

It was 3-3 at the end of the first quarter. Love and Okwara went out one after the other and we gave up 3 TDs in the 2nd quarter. That was the death of us for the most part. Love came back, but the animals were out of the barn by then. If we stayed full strength, I think we could have held their offense in check. Our offense was a different story. Clemson's strength was supposed to be the defensive line, then they lost their top 10 pick DT. The D line still got to Book. But the Tigers were only supposed to have 1 pro level DB, but their entire secondary shut down the Irish. Kelly and Long got outcoached on the offensive end. We tried the short stuff and seemed to do well, but every time we " took a shot", Book got sacked or had to throw it away. The DB's played off the WR's and wiped out all of our deep chances. I think we saw the difference between a good college offense and a pro speed style defense. Our offense is based on big WR's, possession slot guys and lumbering TE's. That's all well and good when you play most defenses and their short secondaries, but the Clemson secondary allowed no separation and bullied the Irish wide outs. I think we learned something great this year. An accurate QB who can run is far better than the athlete at QB with a big arm. But you can only ask a QB to do so much. You have to give him weapons capable of separating quickly. It is great to have Mack and Boykin, but those guys don't separate early. We need to take a page from Tom Brady and institute a quick passing game to go along with the power running game. Also, another year of experience for our green O line will be good. The biggest issue next year is we lose a lot of talent on the defensive end and clearly the second string will have to mature quickly

And anyone thinking DD is done hasn’t followed his career. He has always had a proven closer. If he cannot add one via FA, he will empty the prospect coffers and get one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a trade if he’s at his cap

Steven Wright expected to be ready last year. He had the same surgery as Pedroia yet needed another surgery in November to clean it out. He’s not likely to contribute anything

To me it’s all about contingencies. Without Kimbrel, your pen is barren. Without Eovaldi, you’ve got to use BJ or Velasquez as a 5th starter. Also, everyone talks about Eo like he’s gonna throw 200IP. What happens if Eo comes out as throws 100IP and is uneven like he was before the POs and spends a bunch of time on the DL. Listen, Kimbrel was a constant. He’s gonna be closing. He’s durable. He still has the power stuff. And even with his poor (by his standards) 2018, he’s still as likely as anyone to rebound to his ridiculous standard

Here’s what it comes down to. The Sox won the division by 8 games. That seems like a ridiculous margin, but when you consider that the 4 game sweep in August really sealed the Yanks fate, you see how fragile that lead was. If the tables turned and the Yanks swept that series, the division would have been tied. Yes, you could turn to Barnes. Yes, his peripherals are great. The problem with Barnes is that he never outperforms his FIP, his BABIP remains abnormally high year after year and his career HR rate is right at the rate Kimbrel posted last year (which was a career high by a lot) in what everyone considers a down season. You’re talking about a hittable closer with big K rates and inexplicable hit tendencies for a guy with his kind of stuff. Add in the unknown of him closing and it’s a recipe for pain. Also, you need to replace Barnes in the setup role if you promote him to closer. Kelly gave you some value. He’s gone. Barnes moves to closer, his innings in middle relief are gone. Brasier becomes a need rather than a nice to have and if anyone falters, you’re f***ed

It’s not like DD signed Eovaldi as some superfluous Swiss Army knife. He’s signed to be your 4th or 5th starter. If you shift him to the pen, you’ll need to find a fourth or fifth starter. Yes, you have Johnson and Velasquez, but those guys are middling at best with almost no upside. The Yanks won 100 games last year and by most accounts will be upgraded come ST. You can not afford to have your contingency plan be pulling a starter out and replacing him with a guy who’s gonna be meh. I know most people realize that bringing in relief guys on the FA market will clog up the payroll for 2020 and beyond. But 2019 is the final year of this window before major losses are incurred. You don’t throw that away on the closer slot. DD will get someone and it won’t be a no name.

Cashman has excelled in trading away prospects of value who don’t reach their potential and keeping ones that do. His FA signings won us a title in 2009, but other than that, the FA route has been hit or miss at best

The media has been pumping two stories with Machado. 1. The Yanks don’t have the highest offer. 2. Machado wants to be a Yankee. I’m just considering the options that maybe the Yanks offer isn’t the highest total value but gives Machado the highest AAV and another crack at free agency in his prime.

Comp picks now are tied to spending. If you are below the cap, your comp pick is after the first round. Those are very valuable picks. If you’re over the cap, those picks are after the 4th round. Those picks aren’t valuable at all

If you go into the season with your pen as is, you might end up okay. You might end up great. But you also might end up abhorrent. Brasier looked great in 2018, but there’s a reason he was in the minors in Japan. He put it together for the first time in his life at 30. What are the chances he come out and loses the zone again? Probably pretty high? You guy talk about Brasier like he’s a sure thing, but he very possibly could be Aaron Small or Shawn Chacon and the bloom could fall off the rose. Barnes has a heck of a season from a peripherals perspective, but he’s always been homer prone and that’s a deathknell of a bullpen. Limiting homeruns, especially for a closer, is paramount. Listen, I understand the predicament. If you bring Kimbrel back, you’re making one more run at this and then the gang will fall apart. But it leaves your team with few holes heading into 2019. Or you can have holes going into 2019 but better keep the band together thereafter without Kimbrel on the books

You’re delusional. It was your team that set the record for payroll by a World Series winner. It was your team that outspent the cap by over $40 mil and it’s your team that is incurring the worst penalties available that actually impact your squad from a talent acquisition perspective. And yet you have to come troll here with the above garbage to what, feel better about yourself? The Yanks have missed the playoffs 4 times in the past 24 seasons. In that run, we’ve won 5 titles and been to 7 World Series. 3 of those times have come in the past 6 years, but in none of the past 25 have we finished below .500. This franchise is run very well and has adapted from one where George wanted to win at all costs to rebuilding on the fly and switching to a better model. Enjoy your Christmas. Enjoy your win. You do know your cliff is coming and I will remember this day

Lol. Enjoy your 2018. The Evil Empire will rise in 2019.