jacksonianmarch

He is irrelevant now

And hence why the Yanks are out. If we were desperate, this would be over by now. We have multiple third base options including the ROY runner up from last year. I think we were looking ahead to this offseason in 2016 and then when we hit on so many of the rookies, it kinda became moot

Henry openly mocked the Yankees for their expenditures and now he has the distinction to be the only team to be hit with the draft penalty and he amassed the most expensive champion of all time. Ironic, eh? Here is what is going to happen. Henry is going to be forced to reset soon. The benefit for him is that the CBA will expire and he can sell a "rebuild" to the masses coming off at least one title. The CBA then will get reworked and I highly, highly, think that the players are going to obliterate the lux tax limits. The current setup benefits big market clubs who reset. If those big market clubs are the Yanks, LA, Boston, or Chicago and two of them reset in the same offseason, the market dies and the players don't get paid. We are also seeing a shift from paying free agents to developing your talent. I think the players will either hold out to remove lux tax implications OR to get players to free agency sooner. To be honest with you, I think the smaller markets would take the lux tax penalties going away to keep the 6 years of control.

It isn't about destroying anything. It is about guys hitting FA and going elsewhere

No, they cannot. I put the numbers out there. Based on arb estimates and salaries, the Sox will have $71 mil to fill 2 starting pitcher spots, SS, 1B, 2B, and DH plus positional backup spots and extra pen slots. Also, one must remember that Sale is either gonna get ridonculous money or be damaged goods. If you’re signing him for big money, he’s gonna surpass Price.

I’m not sure who floated that narrative, but it’s not supported by facts. Stanton is actually a good corner OFer. Gardner and Judge just happen to be better defensively. Stanton isn’t a CFer. The only reason why we chose Stanton to almost exclusively DH is the injury risk. Stanton has had trouble staying on the field even in years where he doesn’t take a ball in the grill. DHing him is the best way to ensure his bat is in the lineup. Also, Yankee fans who don’t like his contract are stupid. His contract is not the reason we aren’t chasing the big boys. The ridiculous AAV offered to both guys is the reason

JD’s contract is a 2 year deal dressed up as a 5 year deal. Of course you’d rather that type of deal, everyone would

I absolutely agree. I think the Sox go for it this year. They snag a closer on a one year deal or deal for one at the deadline who has an expiring contract or has one more year remaining. The Sox then lose some talent for 2020 and slide behind the Yanks by a fair margin hence justifying to the fan base a “re-set”. They make every effort to re-sign Betts and are likely successful while also extending Beni and Devers for those three to be the new faces of the next wave in 2023 or so.

RIP Mel.

He’s more than capable of being a good OFer. His UZR/150’s have been good to really good. His issue with the Marlins was soft tissue type injuries and the guy is built like an Adonis. He pulls muscles and he’s out longer than most. Hence, keeping him as a DH increases his durability

Take a look at the players you’re listing. They’re all massive men known for power. Betts has power, but his game isn’t to hit 50 bombs. It’s an exceedingly rare event and doesn’t happen in the post roid era

Luis Gonzalez, Jason Giambi, Manny Ramirez... No steroids?

Yeah, you’re in the minority on that. Betts size is his downfall. Most small great players have short windows

So very rare outside of steroids and Coors field

I am saying Betts isn’t likely to get as lucky again. His career BABIP is .315. He was 53 points above that. Now, some players always have high BABIP’s (like Judge) mostly due to being absolute monsters physically. That’s not Betts. He’s not gonna have a near .370 BABIP again.

There’s a reason why you’re going back to dead players. It doesn’t happen nowadays and it won’t happen again

News from Olney. Yanks are going to give 3b to Andujar and let 2019 be his proving ground. If he flounders defensively, then they’ll have Arenado and Rendon on the market next year to turn to if needed

Sorry, Gray was expected to get $9 mil. I didn’t see he settled for less

That’s a bit of an issue, although based on age, not entirely nuts. He’ll be 29 for all of the 2019 season. We have him for 9 more seasons, 5 of which should be prime (29-33) and the final 4 are theoretically post prime. Thing with Stanton is that his power isn’t gonna go anywhere, I think it’ll be more injury than ineffectiveness with him. Plus, he was “worth” $33 mil last season in what was considered a down season. He knows the league now and if Boone can work on his lineup dynamics, he should come back to his ceiling which he’s already showed. So if we get 6 years of prime then he’s serviceable for some of the 4 post prime years, then it’s a worthwhile deal, especially at the price. On the topic of lineup dynamics, I hope Boone has the analytics of when he stacks Judge and Stanton. When those two guys are 2-3 in the order, the 3 hitter gets owned. Cone had a really good take on it. The pitcher doesn’t have to change angle at all, so Judge gets the fresh look and Stanton gets the more difficult second look from the pitcher and hence, Stanton gets neutralized. Stacking same handed, same sized hitters is a good way to have a good hitter get neutralized. Split them up!

The Yankees bailed out the Marlins? More, the Marlins made the deal knowing they were dealing him. The deal was made to lessen the AAV for teams who care more about lux tax payments than they do about having high payrolls. The Stanton contract is the perfect example. On the books, the Yanks are being hit with a $22 mil AAV. In real life, the last 7 years are $31 mil per year payouts. The Yanks care more about not paying out lux tax if can be avoided than paying out the contract to Stanton. Stanton on the books at $22 mil through his prime is actually great value for the Yanks. Listen, Betts is a different animal, we all know that. His total package is up there with Trout and Judge as the best OFers in the game. Last year, he surpassed them both. He’s gonna hit FA at a younger age than both of his counterparts (Judge and Betts were born the same year). He’s gonna get a super ridiculous contract. I still wonder if the Sox end up offering a front loaded deal with an opt out to keep the AAV low, but if you go with a straight AAV long term deal, you’d have to assume he crosses $32 mil AAV and would set a new record

That’s ridiculous. Betts season was one of the best seasons by anybody post roid era. Thinking there’s a good chance he beats that is drinking Kool Aid with rose colored glasses riding a unicorn level s***

We’re going to jettison $9 mil from Gray, which will put us under the threshold again. I doubt very much that we get Harper or Machado. Looking at the money we have tied up in this squad, the overwhelming majority is up within 2 seasons. Going past the threshold this year is really no big deal. I sincerely doubt we go over the last threshold ever. These are the deals and the money up within 2 years CC 1 yr $8 mil Gardner 1 yr $9 mil Hicks 1 yr $6 mil Gregorius 1 yr $12 mil Lemahieu 2 yrs $12 mil AAV Ellsbury 2 yrs $21 mil AAV Tanaka 2 yrs $22 mil AAV Paxton arb eligible $9 mil this year Britton $13 mil AAV I’d decline swellopt Happ 2 yrs $17 mil AAV if option doesn’t vest Betances 1 yrs deal arb case Chapman $18 mil AAV if he opts our this offseason We have some flexibility for sure

He’s Tulo insurance because Tulo hasn’t been healthy for two seasons and even when he was healthy before that, he was never really healthy enough to be counted on, especially after he turned 30. Lemahieu is probably going to start very regularly between all 4 infield positions.

To be expected

By my count, the Sox spent $1.4 mil more on arb cases than the projection which is almost entirely based on Betts ($1.3 mil over). Just an FYI