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jacksonianmarch

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Everything posted by jacksonianmarch

  1. I agree with you on that one
  2. Yes, last year led to serious "brinkmanship". But this year, the Yanks and Dodgers are spending again. The Cubs are willing to spend a bit too. The White Sox are willing to spend. The Reds have spent to retool. The Phillies have really shown their wallets. Last year was very different. Every team was holding their cash for this offseason. Now, this offseason is here. The sox have Kimbrel and Ottavino as options right now who could really be good additions. The rest are reclamation projects
  3. The season hasn't started yet, but DD is running out of options on the market. If the sox go into the season with Brasier-Barnes as the SU-CL combo, then your GM is taking a huge risk. It's like having a really expensive car with a great mechanic, driver and parts guy who perpetually hands the car off to the 16 yr old valet at the end of the run to park
  4. You have to figure most baseball players have spent at least 3 years in the minors, 3 years getting good salaries by the average person's standards, but not enough to live off forever. Then they get 3 years of arb salaries which could be enough to set themselves up, maybe, maybe not. Guys who reach the 9 year pinnacle and are lucky enough to stare big money in the face, you better believe they're gonna be about the money. The next contract is the one that sets your entire family up for generations and allows you to live a life of luxury from retirement until death, which for most players is 45 or more years. Second contracts are about the money plus the fit, but that first FA contract is all about the money
  5. It's a 3 year deal, maybe a 2 yr or a 4 yr deal for a 31 yr old reliever who was showing his lockdown stuff as the season progressed. If we get 2016 level Britton next year, then this deal is a steal. If he shows 2017 level performance, than it's fine. The only downside is if he falls off the table, which is less likely than others just due to age, but certainly not predictable. If he is healthy and shows what he showed in September, then we will have an even more dominant pen.
  6. This is also an upside signing for the Yanks. Britton wasn’t dominant last season, but by September his K rate was back up to 9 and he was unhittable. His control has been off the last two seasons. In 2017, he went down with a sore arm and in 2018, he blew out his Achilles in the offseason and missed April and May. If we get the guy we had last year, then he will be good. If he has a full spring and enters the year healthy, we have a shot at having the 2016 lights out version. The one thing he did do last year was have a 73% ground ball rate, which is just stupid and by the end of the year, his velocity returned.
  7. Brach also saw his BB rate spike, his K rate drop and a velocity drop.
  8. Allen saw a velocity drop, a K rate drop, a BB rate rise and a HR rate skyrocket in a bad 2018. If you want to hitch your wagon to him, go for it. He has always been a big HR rate guy. I would love that for you
  9. It is essentially a continuation of the Robertson contract money wise. KRob was on the books for $14 mil and Britton will be on for $13.3 mil. This is Betances and Chapman insurance. Dellin has generally been lights out barring one bizarre year where he lost the zone. But he is also a FA after 2019. Also, Chapman can opt out and become a FA after 2019. If we lose both, we can at least run with Green and Britton for 2020. Also, this is one of those genius deals for Cashman. If the guy is lights out, we get him for four years. If he's good, we get him for 2 as we will likely decline his fourth year and he would opt out. If he's not good, we will have him for 3. It is a good deal all around and if we get a healthy Britton, he could essentially turn our wins into 5 inning games in 2019.
  10. In terms of big name free agent relievers, the sox options are down to Ottavino and Kimbrel. I assume the Yanks are not in on either at this point. With Philly signing KRob, they might be out on those two as well, although you never know. The Rockies are losing Ottavino, but they wont have the financial space, most likely, because they went out and spent on relief busts prior to 2018 and need to eat that money rather than pay a guy who proved he could do it in Colorado.
  11. For two years in a row, the Yanks made moves mid season for relief help. Kahnle and Robertson in 2017. Britton in 2018. Interestingly enough, if Kahnle didn't entirely suck last year, we probably don't get Britton. Thankfully, we have Kahnle back and he should be healthy, so maybe he can find the lost mojo. The pen is gonna be deep again and with Britton, Betances and Chapman, we will have some serious heat and stuff coming out of the pen.
  12. It's already in the Yankee section
  13. Its a 2 yr deal with a club option for a third and fourth. He had a pretty solid year last year. He saw his fastball velocity rise back to his previous later in the year and the results came with it, especially in a scoreless September.
  14. Drellich is reporting that Kimbrel’s offers to this point are “crazy low”. I have a feeling the MLBPA is gonna go wild with this. Look at the FA RP contracts to this point. $8 mil AAV for Kelly. $10 mil AAV for Familia. $11.5 mil AAV for Robertson. Doesn’t seem like the market is supporting more than $10 mil AAV for setup men or even closers this year. You’re gonna see a war at the next round of bargaining.
  15. Maybe you do. But mid-season deals for closers are hardly sure things. Eric Gagne says hi
  16. I absolutely think the sox are waiting on Grandal. If they can get him on a one year "prove-it" deal, they would definitely jump. He is a moron, btw. His numbers don't scream "All-Star" and he finished the year with a thud. The Mutts offer him $60 mil over 4 years and he turns it down? What a dummy
  17. We did make the playoffs in 2015 and were competitive in 13 and 14. Even after we blew it up in 2016, we were in the race until the final week. That was our nadir. We didn't go to basement dwelling like the sox did 3 of 4 years, but we weren't title contenders either. My bet is the sox end up the same
  18. It all depends on what you do before the crash. The Yanks dealt off their assets at the same time that their prospects were hitting the upper levels, hence we didn't see a crash. The sox aren't gonna be in that boat since the sox prospects are way, way down and aren't really well recognized. If you run the course trying to stay competitive, then let your assets walk, your team wont have a "cliff" any more, you'll reach a nadir that will take 2-3 years to climb out of. My guess is Henry will try to prop up the team with his finances to allow his prospects to develop, thereby avoiding what was a financially disastrous basement dwelling few years. Cashman did it right. I bet Henry will have his next GM do that too
  19. I know people love Barnes right now because his K rate was amazing last year, but he has never proven to be able to close. Also, he was vital in the setup role last year before his hip got hurt. If he moves to the closers role, then you create a hole where he was. Also, for everyone clamoring about how the Yanks Voit is a SSS wonder (he may very well be) yet have serious love for Brasier is a hypocrite. Brasier is a 31 yr old journeyman reliever who had a great ERA which is not supported by advanced metrics. He doesn't strike out a lot of guys based on the stuff he has. He had never posted a sub 2.8 walk rate at any level of his career (aside from a 5 game SS in Oakland) and he was sub 2 in Boston. His BABIP last year was .198. His xFIP was 3.78, over 2 full runs above his ERA. So while his metrics do point to a good reliever, they absolutely do not point to a lock down reliever like he was based on ERA last season. Plus, he had been out of the majors for 5 years when he resurfaced. It is far easier the second time around when you have a good SR on a guy. My guess is DD is counting on Brasier to be in the relief mix, but I bet he isn't counting on him for big innings, especially in a metrics based FO like Boston
  20. Andujar presents an intriguing case. The Yanks currently have tremendous depth. With Tulo in the fold, it adds to it. Once Didi is healthy, it will be far better. If we add Machado, it will be insane. Most people look at Stanton as a minus defender, but he isn't. He had a UZR/150 of 8.2 in RF for the Marlins in 2017 and was very positive in a SSS in 2018 in the OF for NY based on UZR/150. Our best defensive alignment has Gardner in LF, Judge in RF and Stanton at DH. But with Gardner really struggling last season with the bat, if we needed the DH spot, moving Stanton to LF and benching Gardner isn't a big issue. So that would free up DH for Andujar if need be. Also, one must consider the 1b spot. While Bird has promise littered with injury, Voit actually had production last year in a short sample size. If Luke comes out and kills the ball in 2019, then we have a great problem. If he doesn't and hits like Shane Spencer year 2, then we can move Andujar across the diamond to 1b. Either way, Tulo is a free lottery ticket. He's paid league minimum and is manning a position of need right now. Didi is expected back in May at the earliest, probably more like June. So he will get two months to prove himself barring other additions. If we bring in Machado, then it will push Tulo to play well in ST and earn a spot. He hasn't had to earn anything in over a decade, so he will either sink or swim. My bet is he sinks, but I am clearly open to the possibility that he does well. Now, the dream scenario for the Yanks is Tulo returns to prime level, Machado comes in and kills it, Voit proves he isn't a flash in the pan, and then Didi returns. What a wonderful problem that would be, and it would probably precipitate a trade of some sort. But with the injury histories of Tulo and Bird and the SSS of Voit, there is a strong chance the above doesn't happen
  21. Your lips to DD’s ears. I’d love it if you only added a non-great reliever
  22. The point is that the Yankees are pocketing an unprecedented percentage of revenue which is going to sit VERY poorly with the players.
  23. Meh. Can’t hurt I guess, but my assumption is he will be cut by mid season
  24. The deal ends up being pretty big in the end, but it baffles me that he chose Seattle. I think SD has a better chance of rising than Seattle as SD has one of the best farms in baseball and they’re just as close to Japan as Seattle. And I think LA was in on it and they’re the favorite to return to the WS on the NL side IMO
  25. Wonderful, so he can play on a s*** team in front of his fellow countrymen. Congrats
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