jacksonianmarch

The question is, who is actually listening?

There is zero chance DD deals Betts. So if the Sox stay under the same leadership, he’s staying. If the GM changes, then Betts is a goner

The birds had just added Cashner and Cobb and had a misguided thought that they could compete.

His velocity is coming and going. Some days it’s there, others, it isn’t. That’s how it usually starts. There are some that show up in ST and you’re like “where’d the heat go?” But most of the time it’s a waxing and waning of the heater until it stops returning and stays down.

Britton got an audition here. By the end of the year, his velocity had increased and he showed he was worth the investment. He also didn’t get the closer opportunities he thought he would. Shrewd move by Cashman as Britton has not only been a good bridge guy, but he’s been very homer averse due to his incredible sinker, meaning he’s less likely to totally f*** a winnable game.

Betts isn’t going to Atlanta. They’re small market for the most part and are more inclined to extend their big talents than pay FA market value. It would be against their model to deal a guy like Pache who they could control for six years for an expensive 1 yr rental. They signed Donaldson for big money, but only for one year and have a ready made replacement in the wings. They gave up nothing else for him. With Acuna in the OF already, it makes more sense that they’d promote Pache and create a young, dominant OF tandem for years to come

The guy who’s performance the last four seasons was far better than anyone gave him credit for? Yes. He has been an abject disaster this year. When Sevy returns next month, it’ll be JA’s rotation spot he takes. We’ll likely deal JA in the offseason with a massive amount of money going with him.

JA Crap was pitching. Not surprised

There's zero chance he is moving. They're trying to build out there and once Pujols comes off the books, they'll have some capital to extend Ohtani

That nickname is awesome.

Pretty low, right

I think you are onto something here. 8 yrs $260 mil $32+ mil AAV

You mistake what I wrote. I didn't say he doesn't come in. Clearly he does. I meant he has nothing that moves in on a lefty or away from a righty. Johan Santana saw his first big velocity drop in 2007. Strangely, it went from a career high of 93.1 down to 91.7. The year before the career high velocity, though, he was 92.4, so not a major drop from where he was prior. Santana had that velocity drop and never recovered. His velo went from 93.1-91.7-91.2-90.5-89.4. Santana had 3 straight near or over 7 WAR seasons. In his first velo drop year, he went down to 4. He jumped to 5.3 in his move to the NL then down to 3.5-3.7-1.5 and done. Santana was of slighter build and had a shoulder injury, so maybe you are onto something. But the velocity drop for Santana saw his K rate drop and his Hr rate skyrocket. Sale's K rate isn't dropping, but the HR rate is. Maybe Sale has one more season of 5WAR in him before his velo drops further? Lee isn't the right comp. Lee was always a soft tosser with a max average velo of 91.7 in his career. From 08-2011, Lee was a 6.4-7.4WAR starter then was a 5WAR starter for 2 more years before injuries took him. The best years and even the 2 5WAR years do coincide with his highest average FB velocity (over 90mph) with his biggest in season decline (12-13) showing no considerable change in outcome mostly since he dropped to a place he was rarely at previously. RJ may be a great comp because but he didn't see his big velocity drop until he was 40, but he did drop 1mph in going to NYY after gaining 1mph the year prior, but he changed who he was in NYY. His pitch selection showed a 10% increase in fastball usage in a year where the heater dropped. It never recovered after that. Listen, I am not saying Sale is done or terrible or whatever. I am saying that the days of Sale being a dominant force of nature are likely over. He will have games like he had last night. Then he will mix in games where he gets s*** on because the fastball velocity is waning. As a matter of fact, this exercise almost entirely proved the point I am making. The big velocity drops outside of Verlander are almost never followed up by a better than peak season and almost never see a recovery to previous levels of performance. Not seeing the comps to CC or any of the other pitchers you noted is your issue, not mine. Sale had a dominant arsenal. He has seen said his once elite FB velocity drop a bunch and has seen his performance and HR rate increase. EVERY SINGLE PITCHER on the list above saw this happen. Every single one was never the same again. Most guys on the list above pitched well after the velo drop, but they never reached the heights they saw beforehand

FsB, the sox couldn't even get a rental reliever for Dalbec at the deadline.

Of the guys you list, only one was a power pitcher in Verlander. I know the others had heaters early on, but Santana, Greinke and Halladay were as much about location, movement, depth of arsenal and command as they were power. They had an arsenal that would age well. Verlander and Sale are different beasts. Verlander was only okay when his velo dropped. WAR still of 3-ish but he saw a 2-3 mph drop in his velocity. After moving to Houston, he regained his power. Fishy as hell if you ask me. Also, Verlander is on his way to another 200IP season which will be 12 of the last 13 for him. He really hasn’t had an injury like Sale had where immediately thereafter he lost his heater. CC did (bone chips in elbow). Sale is a power pitcher. Mid to high 90s, power slider, okay change. Wait, a lefty with a good fastball, power slider and okay change? Who does that remind me of? (Hint, CC) He doesn’t really run anything in on lefties. He doesn’t really rely on impeccable command in the zone but he can throw strikes. He’s a good morning, good afternoon, and good night kind of pitcher. You can’t challenge guys without big velocity and he’s learned that this year. If he drops further in 2020, then it’ll be pretty apparent that he’s following the CC path. They’re very similar.

Not 40. They're gonna need to find 16 players who can combine for less than $40 mil if they jettison Bradley, Betts and JDM while letting all other FAs walk if you're thinking a reset

FsB, you’re not getting out of Pedroia’s contract. Not gonna happen. The player benefit for every team is around $15 mil and is counted into the lux tax calculation

CC is Sale’s best comp. look below CC had a better 6 year peak than Sale in WAR (by 1.7 total over 6 years) and eerily the exact same peak season WAR at 7.4. While CC didn’t throw as hard as Sale, he was just as if not more effective. Sale is dealing with the juiced ball. CC dealt with the juiced player. CC and Sale had another parallel. After their 6 year peak, they had a season of 4 WAR (Sale will be around there maybe a touch higher). Both of them experienced a 1.5-1.6 mph drop in fastball velocity. Both experienced a jump in HR rate but maintained good enough production to be effective and good K and walk rates for them. CC fell further the following year and lost another 1+ mph of velocity and essentially became a near league average pitcher. He reinvented himself at that point and returned to being effective. Sale will be buoyed by the higher K rates. But in durability and innings pitched, no peer beat CC in his prime. I remember 2012 well. He was good, but the fastball disappeared a bit. I remember 2013 even more where the fastball was entirely gone

We haven’t had our ace all season and we’re 17 games up on you guys. How’s third place?

Sale was dominant and durable. The softer tossers can be effective, but typically don’t log big innings and are typically at risk for being shelled. Sale, at his peak, rarely got shelled. CC at his peak, rarely got shelled. But post transition CC is effective, but not dominant and not durable or an innings eater. Sale may transition to a guy long term who can give you 170IP with an ERA at or below 4. That’s still good. But it’s not Chris Sale. Get what I mean?

It doesn’t change my outlook at all. If anything, it confirms it. When he’s got his stuff, he’s dominant. But the days he has his stuff are few and far between. As he ages, those days become rare then non-existant. I’m also wondering about their WAR rather than ERA+

9 in a row with 3 more vs the Jays followed by 4 against the O’s. We might not have another high pressure game the rest of the way until playoff time

2 run jack for your fantasy squad

Sale is difficult, IMO, because he got by on absolutely wicked stuff. While I doubt he’s as bad as his ERA is this year, he won’t get to the dizzying heights he was at when he had his stuff. I foresee a CC style return once he embraces his lost velocity and sits on the edges of the zone. But ERA+ only tells you so much. Sale was a bulldog workhorse prior to last season. Those days are over. Interesting that you used ERA+. I wonder if the same would hold true if you used WAR?

You keep living in the past my friend. How is 17 games back in the L column on August 8th feeling? 17 games back of a team that is pretty much using their AAA and AA lineups. The sox were scary. Their player development team was scary. Even when they were in last place, you knew it wasn't going to be long. The sox player development machine forced the Yankees to change their MO, that is how scary it was. But no more. Hiring DD was the deathknell of your development machine. Yes, you got a title out of it and you should be happy about it. But this is the first time since 2004 that I am reasonably assured that the sox are about to fall to a depth they haven't seen in awhile. A depth where they are going to need to become the Orioles before they can be good again. A depth that will be hard for Henry to stomach, which will lead to panic signings (like Panda and Hanley) to try and win again. Signings which will be ill timed with the rebuild. Signings which will return the Red Sox to being, well, the Red Sox of my childhood. This rebuild or lack thereof will be the barometer of how dedicated Henry is to winning consistently. Hell, I hope you push your chips in. I hope you keep the band together. I hope you sign Mookie to an insane 10 year deal at $35 mil plus. I hope you deal Casas for a short term guy. I really, really do. Cause we will devour your squad next year no matter what and the crater will be even deeper