jacksonianmarch

I’m intrigued. Show me said plan

Herein lies the problem. If the Sox simply reset, allow their FAs to walk and DFA Bradley, they’ll still be over the first threshold by a few mil. Also, replacing Bradley, Porcello, et al with nobody outside the .org could be worse than what you have. With the Rays and Yanks in division and in the middle of their own windows, you won’t be competitive. It’s gonna be an interesting winter for Boston. Being in the range you are in now offers you nothing. Baseball punishes mediocrity. You’ve either gotta be good or terrible. Another season in the 80 win territory wouldn’t be good for you. Either blow this s*** up or go for it.

The craziest thing about payrolls is that for the 4 titles 96-00, the Yanks were either in the lead or close to the top, but the biggest expenditure year was $6 mil more than 2nd place. It wasn’t until we acquired Arod that we jumped way above and stayed there until 2014. The interesting thing about 09 and last year is that the Yanks outspent the next team by $60 mil or so. Last year the Sox outspent the league by $25 mil (Giants) but outspent the next highest team to make the playoffs (Dodgers) by nearly $50 mil!

They intentionally walk Torres with 1st and 2nd and 2 out in the 8th trailing by 5. That's garbage, bush league baseball. The O's are going nowhere, why be *******s

Also, if I am dealing a superstar, I would demand to get top end minor league talent, like multiple top 100 to top 50 prospects. Most teams hold onto those guys because their value is immense if they hit. You can have better luck prying good to all star level big league talents from teams with less than the standard 6+ years of control a prospect would have. That is why I am focusing on Nimmo. He is coming off an injury plagued season and has only 3 years of control left. But he's proven to be a near 5 WAR player when healthy and if you can get him plus good prospects, you can achieve production today plus depth for tomorrow. If intent on a complete teardown, Nimmo can be dealt if he returns to his 2018 level of play

Nimmo had a higher WAR last year than Conforto has ever had in his career. Conforto is an abysmal OFer.

I bet he thought he was getting the change from Clippard. If it starts high, it's a strike.

No, I am sorry, maybe I am not representing myself correctly. If DD stays on and decided to give it another run, but deems the Betts situation futile, a deal for Matz and Nimmo could help the club in 2020. If he decides to deal Betts, get 3 years of control of a good OF in Nimmo and a pitcher with promise in Matz. That would be with the intent to compete in 2020. If DD decides to get a reasonable replacement for Betts but also needs to fatten his farm, getting Allan instead of Matz is probably the better call. Nimmo gives you a few years of a big league OFer. Maybe he only keeps Nimmo enough to prove he is healthy and deals him at the deadline in 2020. Obviously, if DD is gone and the sox go into full rebuild, a deal for Nimmo makes less sense. But dealing 1 yr of a superstar for 3 yrs of an all star caliber OFer plus some much needed prospects for the farm isn't the worst thing for a team looking to the future

Torres with 3 more HR's vs the O's. 13 on the year. Most by a player vs a single team since 1969

Pedro that year was the best pitcher I have ever seen. His ERA+ that year was the best in major league history

If you really wanted to install a replacement for Betts and deepen the farm, you could ask for Matt Allan and Nimmo. Nimmo gives you a RFer for the next 3 years and one who was very good last year and you get a top 15 draft prospect from the 2019 draft

I am more talking about a deal that gets you big leaguers, ie one that allows you to try and compete for next year. I do think the Mets are going to be in on Betts, and pretty strongly. Their GM is running a fantasy team and Betts would fit, team building be damned! Also, if the sox' best deal is to gain years of control of another major leaguer, they can always flip that big leaguer for a prospect if they wish to deepen the farm.

There is one Betts trade (I am sure more than 1) that might benefit both teams and potentially help the sox jumpstart their pitching. The Mets have an enigmatic starter on their roster in Steven Matz. He is under control for two more seasons and has been injury prone and in the dog house in NY. The Mets also have Brandon Nimmo who has been injured but useful when healthy. He is under control for three more years. I wonder if it behooves the sox to deal for Nimmo and Matz if they try to win next year. I think the sox could target Nimmo in a Betts trade regardless. Maybe the sox ask for their #1 pitching prospect instead of Matz

Swihart is the cautionary tale of rushing a player and also selling high. Look at Swihart's career in the minors. Yes, hitting was supposed to be his strength. But when was his bat a strength? In 2013, he slashed .298/.366/.428. That's good. In 2014, he played 92 games in AA and slashed .300/.353/.487. That's pretty good too. He was awful in his AAA cameo that year at 22 yrs old. Starts 2015 with a strange .311/.363/.351 line with a startling .383 BABIP. The guy all of a sudden lost all his power and is now hitting an unsustainable .311 by a long shot. Het gets pushed to the bigs as the catchers died on the active roster and held his own, but again showed a startling loss of power slashing .274/.319/.392. He is showing an alarming loss of patience with a skyrocketing K rate with a ridiculous .359BABIP. Instead of determining he belonged in the minors, the organization anointed him as the second coming of Varitek and forced him into the bigs in 2016. His receiving skills forced a push out of position and his move to LF was met with disastrous consequences due to an injury that effectively halted his progression and left him a "what if" around these parts. The warning signs were there. Why did he lose his power? Is it mechanical? Is there an injury? Is it mental? Then, to compensate for the lost power, he is now chasing more and his walk rates fall and his K rates rise. It's standard for a rookie to doubt himself. Instead of sending him down and allowing for the player to declare when he was ready, the sox tried to fit a round peg in a square hole in the majors and irreparably harmed his progression. He needs another 2 years in the minors. Being brought up prematurely screwed that up as it added him to the 40 man and started his control clock. Forcing him to the OF ruined him for good as it halted his progression

You don’t play that game anymore. Guys you’re looking to just check on you bring up. Guys who aren’t ready are kept down until mid year and they prove readiness. No use starting Duran’s clock this year if you could start it in 2020 or 2021. Also, he isn’t ready yet at all. Develop your prospects in the minors.

I was on here in 09 and you didn’t boot me. Expect the same

QS for Paxton (who deserved better than 3ER in 6), offense pounded the Os again. Win, rinse repeat tonight at 7. Pen game again

You owe it to your fans to go for it for another couple weeks. It’s bleak, but if you’re gonna tank the last 6 weeks or so, you gotta have indisputable evidence. If that comes to bear, you DFA Porcello and Cashner and bring up Erasmo Ramirez and Teddy Stankiewicz. At least see what they can do before allowing them to move on (I think both will be FAs)

Also, find me a team with a better bridge and closer. Find me a team capable of running 5 guys out there in a row with this type of dominance. 6 if you believe in Green's last 2.5 months

Tampa's numbers are almost entirely unusable. That being said, their pen is gonna look pretty good when you have Yarborough throwing to a 3.5 ERA and having almost all of them count in relief.

Also, the season isn't over. Paxton has had two good starts and maybe he is gonna close out the year similarly to the way he started it?

Happ had been solid the last 4 years. His velocity has dropped 1mph this year and it's an abysmal year.

Our "bullpen" numbers are heavily skewed by our opener strategy. For the most part, the only guys who are gonna see the light of day in a playoff game where the game hangs in the balance will be Kahnle, Britton, Ottavino, Chapman, and Betances (assuming he is healthy). Green would be next up on that list as he was absolutely horrible in April, wasn't great in May and has been lights out the last 2.5 months

Any player you draft in 2020 will be entering their first full season of pro ball in 2021. So it isn't like they're going to be making a major impact by then. I just re-read the rules for the IFA. The sox will have $4.75 mil to spend as they are not a competitive balance team and likely will not sign a qualifying offered FA. The IFA rules are slanted to help small market clubs. $4.75 mil for non comp balance teams (large markets), $5.25 mil for teams in comp balance A teams and $5.75 mil for comp balance B teams. A team over the lux tax who signs a qualifying offered FA loses $1 mil off their budget. A team below the cap who signs a QO offered FA forfeits $500K from the cap. You can now trade for up to 60% of your cap, where in years past it was 90%. So the sox are going to be in the same tax pool as they are currently. Any short term teardown would need to hit on every single player acquired and they all need to be in close proximity to the majors. Not impossible, but nearly impossible. I understand the fan in you wanting to hope this is a one year thing. Heck, I did too back in 2013. But you have to realize that any tear down is going to be a multi season process

I expected a bit of a regression in the HR/9IP. That is a given moving from Safeco to YS. Add in the rocket ball and it's even more. But he has disappointed this year, no doubt. He had his yearly injury resulting in a 3 week stay on the IL. Since then, he has been inconsistent. Prior to the injury, he was nails. From the sounds of it, the issue with the knee isn't entirely gone and I wouldn't be surprised if he has offseason knee surgery. That being said, when I see a guy in decline phase, I think of what anyone rational would look at, and it's velocity. Paxton has been incredibly consistent the last 3 yrs, within 0.1mph and he has shown no signs of slowing down. He has also seen a .346BABIP and a rise in HR's, meaning he is getting hit far more than before. I think this year is one of two things. One, it is adjustment. A lot of good pitchers have an adjustment year in the Bronx. Doesn't mean they get shellacked, but they usually are a touch below their baseline. Paxton has been far below his baseline, but the expected FIP and the BABIP point towards better results coming. The second thing I look for in a decline phase is command. Is the pitcher selling out for velocity? Paxton's command has been spotty, so maybe you have a point there. But I don't see it as a guy trying to muscle up. I see it as a guy who isn't going in on righties as much. He is getting hurt going away far more than I expected and maybe the Yanks need to work on their pitch calling. I have seen him give up more oppo homers than I would have expected. If Paxton stays healthy, I expect him to be something closer to last year's production. His K rates are big, he can lower the BB rates and maybe cut the walk rate a bit. Now, maybe he isn't gonna be healthy. Maybe he sees a drop in velocity. Hard to tell, but on a one year deal and with his stuff, it is pretty enticing to see