jacksonianmarch

Now, as you all know, I do have a knack for the minor leagues. I am not a scout, although I do know a few and played for a couple (who I still keep in touch with). But I mostly scour the internet for information and watch as many MiLB games as I can to try and see how good a certain player actually is. A lot of times, I am going off of scouting reports from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and Scout.com. I will say that these sites offer differing viewpoints at times and some of these sites differ in how strong they cover each team. Scout.com for instance, is an entity that hires out "beat writers" to cover each team. Some of their teams have no beat writers and are uncovered. Those are typically the sites that are floundering (jsinger's free content has rendered the red sox coverage useless). But for Yankee prospects, it really is the place to be (and Lane Meyer just jumped ship from nomaas to go to scout.com as well. BA hasnt put out their list yet. BP hasnt put theirs out yet. But scout.com has, and BP is typically the least reliable of the three. So, here is my list, my top 50. They will come out in groups of 5. Feel free to bicker all you want, here goes 1. Jesus Montero, catcher, 19 yrs old Combined A+ and AA line- .337/.389/.562- Montero finished the yr as the #3 prospect in all of baseball. And he deserved it. He only appeared in 92 games thanks to a finger fracture, but he made it count. Not only did he have a .951OPS, but he hit 17 homers in those 92 games as a 19 yr old in A+ and AA. He also had close to as many extra base hits (43) as strikeouts (47). Strengths His offensive prowess is difficult to underestimate. He has light tower power. He has a good sense of the strike zone. He makes hard contact. He hits for average, etc, etc, etc. And he's very, very young. Weaknesses He has two. He runs like a lumbering Molina and he is a weak catcher at present. His arm is strong, but his mechanics are a mess and he isnt as quick as we expect most catchers to be Ceiling His offensive ceiling is in the Miguel Cabrera/Pujols/whomever you want to throw in there. He is that good at a really young age. Projection I see Montero as a below average catcher in the big leagues from a defensive standpoint, meaning that he will spend a lot of his time as a DH. He has the hands to play 1b, but his speed will severely limit his ability to play in the OF and in this organization, 1b is not a need. I project him to have all-star caliber offensive seasons as he is a very rare offensive talent. The question is, will he ever get to wear a glove. ETA Midseason callup 2010 as a DH 2. Austin Romine, catcher, 20 yrs old A+ line .276/.322/.441. Romine will be cracking a lot of top 50 lists this upcoming year after his solid performance in the FSL. Remember, for those who see a mid .700s OPS, that the FSL is a notorious pitchers league. Romine was 8th in the league in HRs (13) and 4th in the league in RBIs (72). His overall total package won him the FSL MVP honors. Strengths He has good power, not great, but is a very solid line drive hitter who is capable of being a 20+HR guy in the big leagues. He is also a very sound defensive catcher. He has a great arm and near perfect mechanics. Most scouts think he can catch right now in the big leagues from a defensive standpoint. He also has good speed for a catcher, swiping 11 bags this past yr and legging out 3 triples. And, he is a well respected leader amongst his teammates and other managers in the league. He is an all around player. Weaknesses He is not patient enough at this juncture. His IsoPatience has sat in the .040-.050 range for 2 yrs now. The hope is that he will learn that as he ages, but he really doesnt seem to like to get into deep counts. Ceiling I know most sox fans will think I will put Mauer on here, but cmon now. But I think a Russell Martin a la 2007 is a good ceiling. 20 homer power, 20 SB potential with solid defense and a good average. Projection He is a player who I think is very close to his ceiling in a lot of ways. His offensive approach needs to add just a bit more patience, but his power is there and he should add to that as he fills out. His defense right now is good enough to be a top defender in the AL, so he doesnt need to fill out there. The biggest thing he needs is to gain experience and it seems NY is content to go yr to yr with him. ETA 2012 Starting Catcher 3. Manuel Banuelos, LHP, 18 yrs old A ball line- 9-5 2.64ERA 109IP 1.07WHIP 8.8K/9IP 3.7K/BB. Banuelos will also be cracking a lot of top 50 lists in the upcoming months. He was one of the youngest players in the SAL this yr and he dominated. So much so that he was invited to the futures game. He is a small guy (5'10") but he packs a punch as well as 3 plus pitches. His FB went from topping out in the low 90s to topping out at 96mph this yr. His curveball came a long way and his changeup remained plus. He only walked 28 batters in 108IP, showing that his command is very advanced for his age. Strengths He's left handed, was 18 for the entire yr in long season, tops out at 96mph, has advanced command, and has three plus pitches. He is everything you could ask for out of a young pitcher. Weaknesses Not many. His curveball can be inconsistent at times, which gets him in trouble. And his frame could scare some people from considering him a potential starter. Other than that, experience is his only real deterrent. Ceiling With his stuff and his command, his ceiling is as a #1 starter. Projection With his frame, it is difficult to see him maintaining that velocity, but I do see him in the front of a rotation. I think he profiles well as a future #2 starter. We havent had a pitching prospect this advanced in the art of pitching since Hughes prior to his injury bug. ETA 2012. They have been pretty cautious with him to this point, I do think he takes all of 2010 to navigate A+ and then splits 2011 between AA and AAA. I expect him to be in the bigs either in the rotation or the pen come 2012. 4. Austin Jackson, OFer, 22yrs old AAA line- .300/.354/.405 24SBs. Austin has been labelled as the Yankees CF of the future for quite some time now and he has delivered. Albeit in 2009, he delivered a bit differently than some had hoped. He improved his BA and his baserunner had improved significantly. But his power has been lacking as evidenced by the 4 homers. He's still young and he is still pretty skinny, so the hope is that he fills out a little and stays in AAA for another yr to get ready for ascencion into the CF pantheon in 2011. Strengths He is a true 5 tool player. He has power, although he decided not to show it this yr. He has great line drive skills, he has a very good glove and runs great routes. He is quick and he has a solid arm. Weaknesses He has yet to put a season together where he has showcased all 5 tools. Also, he strikes out WAY too much and a lot of the people in the know think he will eventually be better suited for the COF rather than CF. Ceiling I think he has the ceiling of a true blue 5 star CFer a la Adam Jones. I am talking .300 hitter, 20+ homers, 30+ steals and a highlight reel in the OF Projection He is an incredibly difficult guy to predict. He could end up as a perennial All-Star CFer or he could be wildly inconsistent and be a 4th OFer. I think he fits somewhere inbetween. He has a few All-Star caliber yrs mixed in with mediocre ones. Maybe like a Mike Cameron, especially with the K's. 5. Zach McAllister, RHP, 21 yrs old AA line- 7-5 2.23ERA 121IP 2.23ERA 1.08WHIP 7.1K/9IP 2.91K/BB. McAllister is a future version of the past version of Chien Ming Wang. McAllister makes his hay with his 2 seamer. He had monkeyed around with a 4 seamer, but believe it or not, there was no velocity difference. He sits comfortably in the low to mid 90s and throws the sinker 80% of the time or so. McAllister does have a plus changeup, but he has an average at best slider and thats about it. He doesnt strike a ton of guys out, but he gets a lot of weak hacks, a lot of grounder, and looks like he is a future bulldog in the rotation Strengths Young, big frame who has only had one DL stint in his 3 yrs of long season ball. He throws hard and has one plus off speed offering Weakness Not a strikeout pitcher and likely never will be. Will make his hay on contact. Ceiling I think his ceiling is as a horse in the #2-#3 mold. He's a big strong kid who can throw that sinker in there and know it wont be hit out of the park. He has very good command of his repertoire as well, which makes his ceiling and his projection rather similar Projection I think he can go two ways. Some people see him in the Scott Shields role. A sinkerballer who can be a bullpen ace if you will and can eat multiple innings if needed. And others think he could easily slot into the middle of a rotation. I think with his arm, his size and his sinker-change combo, he will be a mid-rotation starter in the future ETA He'll get a callup in 2010 if just for a cup of tea. He's in the swing role in the pen for 2011 and might be in the rotation for some team come 2012.

The cubbies forge their legacy as lovable losers.

I dunno Dipre. He was a starter for awhile and put up a pretty respectable line. Give the kid another yr and he could be a serviceable starter. He's like a less powerful Ellsbury who plays better D

I bet they could. It is all going to be based upon what that cost will be. Cameron is a stop-gap player, nothing more

you should. Those players were BOUGHT.

The health part is obvious. That is why having a guy like Gardner around is great. Gardner is a plus defender. Hell, he put up an amazing UZR this yr and should continue to do so as long as he stays this fast. At the very least, if Cameron went down, Gardner could replicate his D.

My god you are dense. So, because the yankees did it in one offseason and the sox did it with a collection of guys they bought over the yrs makes a difference? Thats stupid and you know it. Just admit you are wrong and we can move on here

You keep trying to sway my POV by pointing out how the players were acquired. THE RED SOX BOUGHT THEIR PLAYERS FOR THE 2004 AND THE 2007 WORLD TITLE. DEAL WITH IT! 2007 WS team Jason Varitek- acquired via trade while still minor leaguer, essentially home grown Kevin Youkilis- through the farm Dustin Pedroia- through the farm Julio Lugo- Bought in 2007 Mike Lowell- Bought by Boston in Beckett trade in 2006 Manny Ramirez- Bought in 2001 for 160 million dollars Coco Crisp- traded by Cleveland as he just started to get expensive JD Drew- Bought in 2007 David Ortiz- scrap heap signing Josh Beckett- traded for in heavily financially motivated move, ie bought by Boston Curt Schilling- traded for in heavily financially motivated move, ie bought by Boston Wakefield- scrap heap signing turned longest tenured red sox currently DiceK- bought in 2007 Tavares- scrap heap signing, sucked Lester- hardly made waves in 2007, but farm system Papelbon- farm system Timlin- bought prior to 2003 get the jist? The sox had a few home grown guys contributing, like NY did. But the core was bought along the way. Got it? Good

I will tell you what, Theo and Co. hated having Manny around, even if he was directly responsible for 2 world championships. I dont see Theo going down that road. He doesnt like divas.

And the Red Sox didnt? Schilling and Manny were gotten with significant cash incentives, either by trade with money involved or by a FA contract. Beckett as well with the deal to take Lowell's "abysmal" contract. Cmon man, we can do this all day. The Red Sox core in 2007 included... 3 hitter- Manny Ramirez- acquired for 20 mil a yr in FA 4 hitter- David Ortiz- scrap heap signing Ace- Josh Beckett- gotten in a trade that had significant financial motives to it (read Mike Lowell) #2- Schilling- gotten in a trade that had significant financial motives Lowell or Drew- Lowell was a giveaway because his contract was too high, and Drew was bought The Yankee core... Derek Jeter- brought up through the farm Tex- bought in 2009 ARod- acquired by trade for significant financial motives CC- Bought in 2009 AJ- Bought in 2009 So, what we are saying is that the sox buying their guys a few yrs back means that it doesnt qualify as buying a championship? Bull s***. Just so happens that NY's championship occured right after they bought their guys.

Drew, DiceK and Lugo were the best available FAs at their position.

Where did I say world series in there? I said winning consistently. They have won a lot of world series, but the yankees have been winning consistently for 15 yrs now. Not necessarily the big one, but they have won the most games, have been to the most playoff games, the most world series', etc over the past decade plus. You win consistently and people will support your team. That glow lasts only so long, so you need to put a team out there that is competitive on a consistent basis. The Mets put out competitive teams once every 5 yrs or so, and that isnt enough when the yankees are rattling off 95+ win seasons like they are going out of style.

You continue to maintain that the sox did not buy their title. My f***ing god. Tell that to the Pirates fans who havent spent $209 million over 7 yrs let alone in one offseason. Its time to face the facts here Dipre.

The Mets/Yankees dichotomy shows that the past success is incredibly important. The Mets can easily have payrolls in the low $100 million range and not bat an eye. But if they go up into the mid to high $100 mil range, they need to be winning to be able to afford it. Why? because they are the mets, the lovable losers who got two championships but floundered many more. They dont have the history that NY does and therefore, they cannot draw off their fanbase as well as the Yankees can

You mean, if they started winning consistently, like say.... THE YANKEES

And I can argue that people's willingness to buy tickets for a team is due to their history. Here is the flow sheet (and I know you are right Bosox) Yankees market + Yankees prior success = massive renevues. Massive revenues + broken system = persistent dominance. Their prior successes and their current successes are a major part of why the team is so big in NY. They are a sticking point for the bravado of people who live in the city that never sleeps.

The Mets can compare with that, but they dont have that financial advantage.

The tying up the DH position is a very valid argument. We have ARod who will need a rest once every 2 weeks up to once every week as he ages or more. We have Posada who will need to cede more time behind the plate. We have Jeter who will probably need some time out of the field due to his minor ailments. And if we had Damon, he will miss some time too with those bothersome calves. I agree there. The good thing about Johnson, if you will, is that he will allow you to platoon as the DH, meaning putting Posada or someone else in to get a breather when a lefty is on the hill. In terms of Cameron, the stats seem to undermine your idea. His OPS was right around .800 again. He brings a lot more power than Cabrera does. He continues to walk at high rates. And his defense continues to be up with the best in the game. Here is an excerpt from the article Difficult to argue with the numbers. But at his age, you could be right.

I agree Dipre. Jackson turns 23 yrs old in February while compiling a pretty nice resume and a lot of praise from opposing managers and scouts. I wouldnt go that far for Grandy. I think Granderson is a nice player and will probably be more of a homer threat than Jackson ever will be, but AJax is a better base stealer and has the makings of a very well rounder offensive player in both approach and line drive skills. I just dont think it is that much of an upgrade offensively to get Grandy for Jackson based upon what Jackson's ceiling and then his likelihood should be.

I was reading a well thought out article from mlbtraderumors.com. They were talking about keeping Damon in LF, signing Mike Cameron for CF and kicking the tires on Nick Johnson as a DH/1B for 2 seasons. That would free Melky up to be trade bait and Gardner up to be the 4th OFer. That would leave the lineup at... 1. Jeter SS 2. Damon LF 3. Teixeira 1B 4. Rodriguez 3B 5. Posada C 6. Johnson DH 7. Cameron CF 8. Cano 2B 9. Swisher RF And, assuming it takes about 8 mil to lock up Damon and another 8 mil to lockup Cameron and probably 5-6 mil for Johnson, you can make those upgrades without spedning more money than what is already coming off the books from Damon's prior contract and Matsui's contract. That will free up 4 million from just those two guys, then 6 mil from both Wang and Nady would get the savings down to $16 mil. Seeing as Pettitte made $12 mil last yr, he probably wouldnt get more than that on the open market, so that plan would bring back Pettitte, fill out the lineup while improving over CF defensively and offensively and fill the rotation while saving $16 mil. Thats also not a bad idea.

So, based upon your statement above, you do not believe that the Yankees current financial advantage has anything to do with their past successes? You do not think that their financial empire has been strengthened by their history of consistent winning?

Hermida is all about the buy low possibility and he offers a pretty cheap fall back option that he could try and sell to the masses should Bay and Holliday elude him.