I believe in playing the percentages, but taking a pitcher out the 3rd time through the order is not like playing the odds at the craps table. At the crap table, there is no such thing as a hot roller, but on the mound, pitchers can be having a genuinely good day where they are mowing down the opposition. Pitchers don’t go to the mound with the same stuff every time out. Taking out a pitcher who is in command purely because of the 3 rd time through the order stats is not playing the odds. It’s a cop out by managers who get paid to know when their pitchers are still effective or if they are tired etc. Taking them out at the 3rd turn through the order argues for Robo managers.