I agree with you 100%. On everything except I think Okajima has big time stuff, but yeah no one holds a zero ERA for too long.
Ellsbury has speed and defense. He doesn't really have .300 potential, he doesn't have any power potential. His only real plus attribute is his speed. He'll be good, but we're talking, Juan Pierre good, not Carl Crawford good or Johnny Damon good.
His max value to the Red Sox is in a trade. We have the best defensive centerfielder in baseball already and since June 1st he's been hitting the ball hard and I'd bet hitting around .300. If he is back to doing what he has done pre-boston, with that defense, I don't know if you can really improve on that. Ellsbury certainly can't.
Jon Lester is AT BEST a number 2 starter on a big market club, but what makes him valuable is that at worst, he's a 3 or a really good 4. He has good stuff, but like ORS said, we hope he is like a Buehrle down the road. Buehrle isn't too old either, 28, going into his prime. He is a horse and can quiet teams down like only the best pitchers in the league can.
3.03 ERA right now would be the best on our staff.
Maybe five years from now, if we sent them Ells, Lester and Lugo we would be able to say they got the better end of the deal long term when you look at the overall talent changing hands, but really who cares. Youk, Pedroia, Papelbon, Beckett, Dice-K, Buehrle, Crisp and Bucholz are all above average to very good major leaguers under the age of 30. That is a great nucleus of young talent. Add Buehrle to that mix and we compete year in year out for the next 5-7 years depending on re-signings.
Buehrle was set to sign a 4 year 50 million dollar deal. If we offered him 5 and 75, he'd be in the fold.
The team we have right now needs a shake up. The talent is there on both sides of the ball, they just need that kick in the ass that a big trade gives. We're getting complacent... and having 3 #5 starters in our rotation doesn't help either.
If the FO brings in a big time pitcher like Buehrle thats says to the team "Ok, we think this is the year, here is the last piece of the puzzle, go and get it done." That might be all this team needs to go from .500 ball club (what theyre playing like now) to .700 juggernaut (what they were and what they should be).