ksushi

Ian Kennedy is not that good. He's regarded as a guy who is a safe bet to be a middle of the rotation starter, he isn't going to blossom into much more than that. If I were Brian Cashman, I would have a hard time dealing away Phillip Hughes, Kennedy, Melky and a prospect, simply because you have to expect Joba and Hughes to be mainstays in your rotation for as long as you would have Santana for anyways, and much much cheaper. Trading away cheap pitching talent to sign a pitcher to what will almost certainly be the biggest contract a pitcher has ever inked isn't exactly a Cashman kind of move. They don't have the position prospects to make it worth it for them and for the Twins... I still think the dark horse in this one is the two LA teams. If one of them loses out on Cabrera and decides they want Santana, they might open and close talks in one night, and come out of it with a new ace.

So hold up... I don't know how you feel about Clay as a prospect. I've been assuming this whole time that you are as high on him as most, but I detect some skepticism? If you don't think he can carry the workload of a SP, do you think it would be worth it to package him in a trade? I mean, all I know is that you're pretty unimpressed by most of the speculation flying around. I think his frame is much less questionable than people think. He is listed at 6'3 190lbs, its not unrealistic to anticipate him coming into camp at around 200 lbs. Either way, he should be able to handle the workload of a close to full major league season unless theres something I'm missing.

Just to put that to rest. Moving on...

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071106&content_id=2294391&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

So you're supposing he should spend a month in AAA lounging and maybe doing some crossword puzzles? Gotcha. Pitching is pitching. Whether hes doing it in AAA or MLB he is still putting the same amount of stress on that shoulder of his your so terribly worried about. I'd rather see him logging innings in the majors where he'll actually have an impact, rather than wasting innings in AAA.

No, you're talking a mid-season big league '08 debut, I'm talking at the latest May. You can only handle 'em with kid gloves for so long then its time to take big steps. Whether they're in AAA for half the season or the bigs, they're going to be throwing pitches. With his talent, he should be throwing pitches in the major leagues. I think the most likely scenario has him in the rotation on opening day, but, if they take a more conservative approach a maximum of a month in AAA wouldn't be too much. A mid-season insertion into the rotation is pretty unlikely I think.

Lol, you're assuming he is going to tire severely after 180 IP. In all likelihood he starts the season in AAA. The only problem I have with this is it means someone gets the 5th starter job temporarily because there is about zero chance clay spends the whole year in AAA, thats wasteful, and it means you have to "demote" someone like Wakefield to the 'pen. I'd like him up at the get-go but I think that will probably only happen under extenuating circumstances due to injury or what have you. So, he comes up in may after having thrown well under 250 pitches. Thats pretty much nothing goes on to finish the year at ~180 IP. You'll have to keep an eye on him going into the playoffs anyways, move him to the 'pen maybe unless he proves to be in good shape at the finish of the season. When we shut him down this year it was more out of luxury than anything else. We were pretty much assured a spot in the playoffs, he had six innings left before he was going to be shut down anyways. He missed one start. :'( . I just don't see a scenario in which we don't see at the very least a 20% increase in his IP. How does keeping him penciled in at the same innings total in successive seasons benefit him going forward? Whether he is in the majors or at AAA, he is going to have to log the innings and build his stamina so that at one point he can pitch a full major league season and playoffs. I don't know why some people are under the assumption the kids right arm is going to burst into flames after 160 innings. Kilo, if you have some insight as to how Theo plans to handle it or if you live next to Francona and you've been picking his brain I'd love to know how it will actually play out. But short of that, all we can do is speculate right? If I had to put a number on it I'd say he'll throw 185 innings next season, the bulk of which will be at the major league level, if it were my choice, all of it would be at the major league level. Its not like he is made out of paper mache.

I expect him to be capped at about 180 unless he exhibits some serious strength at that point. If his velocity is sitting above the 90 mph mark after 180, I think you let him go and don't look back. If you worry about him becoming the next Wood or Prior and "monitor" his innings so much, you cost yourself in the long run. He has to make the jump from prospect to major league pitcher and this is gonna be the year. I think Buchholz has the best stuff of anyone I have ever seen coming fresh out of the minors. Him and Felix Hernandez. We have something special and we have it guarenteed for 6 seasons. I'm not in favor of wasting time on him. Put him in the rotation, if he needs to be shut down, unless our pitching depth changes dramtically in the next few months, we have the luxury of being able to call it a season at 180 innings and plug Wakefield or someone in there. Michael Bowden could even be knocking at the door come september and you only need four in the playoffs.

His IP limit this past year was 155, and though I haven't worked in a FO and I'm by no means an expert ( I'm fairly sure that applies to you too) I'd expect his limit to be a little bit higher. By at least 20 IP. It definitely won't be at 155 again for the sake of progress. At some point in his career he is going to need to make the jump and stick in the bigs for an entire season... If you think 23 is too young to do so, here are some guys who disagree Cole Hamels Greg Maddux Pedro Martinez Those are just some examples, I don't feel like digging around to show you how many guys who weigh under 200 lbs have debuted and stuck before the age of 23. Looking at Hamels who is the same height and weighs 15 lbs less than Buchholz he logged 180 innings this year and has accumulated over 300 in his career in the bigs. Maddux debuted at 150 lbs, much smaller than clay and threw 249 innings as a 22 year old. Pedro, also much smaller than buch, threw 194 in his age 24 season. Buchholz is not that small. I don't know where people are coming out with this crap. Not every big league pitcher is a 6'7 monster tipping the scales at over 260 like beefy Brad Penny or 38pumpkinpies.com, Curt. If he threw 95+ regularly I'd be worried about it, but he doesn't. He throws low-90's occasionally reaching north of 95. Thats fine. Guys smaller than him have done it, there is no reason he can't. He can stick in the bigs just fine. To add to my point, though, most guys put weight on in their rookie season more than any other year of their career. Their surrounded by driven professionals and the best trainers available. If we wanted him to put weight on, he'd be in the bigs for sure. Beckett debuted for the fish at 6-5 199 lbs. 9 lbs heavier than Buch. Now he weighs in at over 220 lbs. If we keep coddling him like a baby we're missing out on good years at a firesale price. Even if Clay under achieves for the next six years he'll still command a pretty penny in free agency. The clock is ticking, he is going to be throwing. Has anyone seen the Coco to twins rumor anywhere but Rotoworld? I can't find it. Even on traderumors. They usually have everything... in a bad way.

Dumb? He's our fifth starter. It's reasonable to assume DiceK will improve on his 07 showing, Schilling has every incentive to not show up as out of shape as last year and even if he needs time off, it will come before september. That gives us two solid arms to feel good about behind Beckett come october. I don't think we need to bank on Buchholz being there in the end. They could handle him like they did Lester in 06. Strict pitch count, short innings etc. But, personally, I'd rather not have him wasting pitches at AAA when hes proven he can compete up here. I think at some point you have to turn a young arm loose and stop coddling. Thats this year for me with Buchholz. I don't think its unreasonable to assume a 20% increase

Goose, Rice and Bert.

If he is going to build up his stamina he might as well do it in a major league rotation. Francona will have specific instructions on how to handle him (read: how to not burn him out) and when september rolls around we'll see how he holds up. Remember, we need him to be our fifth starter, if he can pitch in the playoffs and we can flip flop him with Lester if Lester is struggling, gravy. But really, all we need is for him to adjustment year in the majors and get some innings under his belt.

I think Buchholz is much more likely to make the rotation at the start of next year than he ever was to be on the post season roster. That was up in the air all along. Maybe among most fans, after seeing the no-hitter, it seemed like a no-brainer but I think the FO figured all along that his innings total would surpass what they were comfortable affording him before the end of september. There was some dissappointment there, but not really surprise and it was only really dissappointing because we all wanted to see him shown off a little more and get to see him throw. He has great poise and great stuff and can definitely help the major league team right off the bat next year. I don't see why they would keep him down. Unless a major trade happens to acquire a starter without giving up one of Buchholz or Lester, I expect Wake to be in the 'pen especially if Dougie isn't back and our rotation will probably look something like this: Beckett, Dice, Schill, Lester, and Buchholz.

Ellsbury, Lowrie, Kalish and Masterson. They're going to be putting a lot of value in position prospects at or near major league level, they have a vacancy at CF in 2B that they're going to want to fill with Johan Santana's return. I'd hate to part with Ellsbury but his value is sky high with world series, and Coco and Ellsbury will most likely give more or less equal returns or at least Ellsbury won't be so much better it would be worth keeping him rather than exploiting his inflated value due to his role in our WS. If we could get Santana we would win in '08 and have the best chance in '09 without a doubt. We have to wait and see what happens in the Mitchell report before this thing really moves. As a venezualan native, he's seen his countrymen be accountable for 40-something% of steroid busts and his visa will be on the line if he is in the report. I think anyone inquiring on Cabrera and Santana or anyone who will cost that much talent will wait and see what those names are first.

Horrible move by the angels. this is going to be one of those moves that kills them five years from now. What an old old outfield that will be.

Pedroia has pretty average speed. I've never seen him really show any special footspeed in the field or on the bases. Just because he is small doesn't mean he runs any better than anyone else. Didn't youk win the battle of speed between them anyway?

Jacko, The Sox don't need bullpen help. That is why I would take a high-priced flier on wood.

Wonderful contribution. I mean, when you don't have to count on them whats the big deal? I don't think you can be considered a gagger if you fail at filling a MR role... Was Seanez a gagger? I don't think so, his role wasn't important, he sucked, we DFA'd. Moving on. The question with a Kerry Wood is if you are prepared to pay a premium for his upside, and eat it if the risk wins out over the reward. It would be a luxury to have a talent like Wood in our bullpen knowing full well that if he does hit the DL and does nothing for us, it doesn't cripple our staff like it did Chicago's because we have enough arms to get the job done.

He'll probably get something like what Dotel got. 5 mil, one year? Sounds reasonable. I'd do it.

But given the overall uncertainty of the relief market in general wouldn't you like a relatively low cost and potentially very high reward acquisition to fill the role Gagne ended up doing in just general garbage time relief? You need him to be the garbage time guy, and he could end up being the guy getting key outs if young kids like Buch and Lester don't make it out of the fifth - if he ends up realizing his upside. There isn't a lot to lose and its not like there is a lot to be had on the FA market. He has monster stuff and huge potential but a worrisome injury history. The Sox have been amazing in managing injured/fragile arms. I bet if we can keep him on the field, he'll be a great acquisiton. If it doesn't work out, Hansen or potentially Masterson late in the season could get looks in that role but again there isn't any pressure to fill that roster spot with an impact arm, because we already have 3 in the back of the rotation in MDC/Oki/Pap.

91-94ish. Him and Mark Prior are ridiculous tragedies compared to what their ceilings were. They both touched 99+ with fantastic stuff and control.

Thats a great idea. I don't know if we need a Blanton though, and Beane LOVES his durability, but that would certainly be a good move. I'd think though, if we acquired Blanton, it would put a Lester or Buchholz on the block.

I understand Lowells second half slump was masked by a high second half BABIP and he still generated very little power and was almost a singles hitter in the second half, but I'd still like him back. Despite whatever the numbers say, Lowell is an outstanding defensive 3rd baseman, and if he can come back for 3 years 15 mil, great. I like him at 2, but I'd be O.K. with the third year because as long as he is on the field his defense will help us out and hey, maybe he pulls a dwight evans and even ages well? If he doesn't come back, I like Jed Lowrie at either corner position. Hes tall enough and the only knock in his defense is his range, but being at a corner position shouldn't be too demanding range wise and hes got decent hands so I like him to make that transition.