The Sox have about a month and a half to patch up the leaks and get the ship righted after the break. If they play around .600 ball during this stretch, then they will have a shot at making the post-season. If not, I don't think they will make it.
From July 14-September 1, the Red Sox play 7 series against contenders for playoff spots (NYY, ANA, TEX, CWS twice, MIN twice). That's the bad news. The good news is that most of those series are laced between some series against weaker opponents (KC twice, DET twice, TB thrice). They really need to win each series against the teams they "should" beat.
The reason I stress this patch in the schedule is because after Sept 1, if they aren't sailing smoothly, they will hit some really rough water on the way in. September 2-October 2 is a bear. Two series against the O's, who they are 5-7 against this year, and who will be getting Eric Bedard back. Two series with Toronto, who they are 3-8 against this year. Two series with the Yankees, who they are 5-4 against this year. A series with the Angels. A series with the A's, who started off rough, but are getting some fabulous pitching now. And, luckily, a series with the Rays.
This team needs to take advantage of the the next month and a half, because I don't see them coming from behind in the month of September. I know anything can happen, but the cards don't look like they will be in our favor if they are chasing down the stretch.