ORS

Frank did bop 12 HRs in only 105 ABs last year, but he's played in more than 75 games only twice in the last 5 years. He'd be an injury risk, but it wouldn't surprise me to see an offensively challenged, deep pocketted AL team to see if he can DH for them for a year. Anaheim? Baltimore?

I meant what I said. Erstad is the better player, but Millar is the better hitter. If Millar has a below league average season at the plate, then I'd agree that his hitting skills are in serious decline. But looking at the last seven years, there is no reason to think that Millar will be below league average, nor is there any reason to think Erstad will be above it. EDIT: Typo.

FYI, OPS+ and EqA are park adjusted stats. Yes, Erstad is a more complete player than Millar, but Millar is a better hitter. EDIT: Correction. OPS+ is not, by definition, a park adjusted stat; however, the OPS+ stats I used in the comparison of Millar vs. Erstad were park adjusted since the site I got them from calculates the values with a park adjustment. baseball-reference.com

The problem with the Wells situation is this question, will he just walk away from the game if they don't honor his wish? He hinted at retirement after this year prior to the request, so you know it is already on his mind. I don't know if Boomer can leave a potential $8-9M on the table, but he's not the easiest guy to read. It's big risk if they don't trade him. As for his trade value, who is going to want to give up a valuable player for a one year rental? Wells will be 43 after next season, and it is very likely that he will hang up his spikes at the end of the year. BTW, Lawrence was traded to the Nat's in the Vinny Castilla deal.

While I certainly won't be missing Millar on the roster, this isn't true. Look at the stats. 1999-2005 OPS+ Millar: 107, 119, 141, 131, 110, 117, 100 Erstad: 74, 137, 78, 88, 75, 95, 89 EqA Millar: .277, .289, .311, .300, .274, .284, .262 Erstad: .225, .306, .243, .247, .233, .263, .247 League average is 100 for OPS+ and .260 for EqA. Millar has had one league avg. season (2005) and six above avg. Erstad has had one above avg., one at avg., and 5 below avg.

When we took the chance on Ortiz he was 27 and healthy. We paid him $1.25M on the chance that he would improve once he got on a team that embraced him using his power stroke (the Twins were trying to shorten his swing). Durazo already plays for a team that adheres to the same philosophy as us, and he's coming off a season that ended with surgery. Plus, he'll command much more than $1.25M in a weak FA market. Could he work out? Absolutely, but the risks taken on Ortiz are nowhere near as big as the risks that would be associated with Durazo.

Matt LeCroy?!?!? Why on earth would we want to replace one tub of goo with another? This guy is poor man's version of Kevin Millar. Kevin Millar Matt LeCroy Career OBP .365 .327 Career OPS+ 118 100 Career FRAA 14 -13 Millar had a 100 OPS+ this year to LeCroy's 111, but this was a below average year for Millar while it was an above average one for LeCroy. LeCroy has only been better than league average (OPS+ of 100) in 2 of the 5 years that he had more than 150 ABs, where as Millar has been league average or better in 7 out of the 7 seasons he's had more than 150 ABs. LeCroy is league average as a hitter and he can't field or run. There is a reason this guy hasn't played more than 110 games in a season. He's either injury prone, or he's just not good enough to play every day. Whichever is the case, I don't want any part of him. We are trying to upgrade 1B, not downgrade.

Do you think that is more informed opinion or prayerful hope? That question works both ways since it is in your best interest to see him go. There have been hundreds of players who have threatened hold-outs in the last 10 years, and the overwhelming majority (like 95% or more) have returned to work without their wish being met. If the Sox aren't able to get enough value in return come March, then I'll play the percentages. No matter how airheaded he is, I can't see him leaving $57M and a shot at the Hall on the table.

Theo did such a good job because he had excellent advisors. Bill James crunched the numbers, and Craig Shipley (the head scout) evaluated the talent. Theo's decisions were based on good analysis of players' real value (sabermetrics) and their on field ability (scouting). I think the most important thing for whoever becomes the next GM is that he have an open mind and open ear. This is most likely to happen with an in-house promotion, which will also have the highest degree of continuity, something that is very important when a shake-up like this happens.

I agree, it's not like Jeter was handed this award. He played well enough to win it, and he did play in 18 more games, which is very valuable when you figure you have replacement level waiting on the bench.

I figured that was what you meant, but the way you and AtG13 were carrying on I actually figured you guys thought he'd land an all-star by himself.

AL ShortStops @ espn.com Zone Ratings Cabrera 0.844 Jeter 0.830 Cabrera wins this award if he plays in about 10-12 more games. He beat Jeter in every rate category other than media exposure.

I was just coming to post the same link. His take nails it for me.

On what planet does a prospect who struggled in AA, then had a good month in the AFL land an Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera? Those types of guys go for at least 3 prospects of Duncan's caliber. Don't get me wrong, I think Duncan will be good, but his stock is no where near that high yet.

True, Theo did make some very good finds, but how did he do it? He used the sabermetric statistical analysis so popularized by the book Moneyball. This ownership understands the value of objective analysis, which is why they hired Bill James and went after the book's GM-hero Billy Beane. I think that demonstrates the organizational philosophy, and it makes me confident that Theo's replacement will be like-minded. Of course, this is pure speculation on my part, but they have done nothing to this point that would make me think another Duquette (who used prospects like currency for past-their-prime big name stars) or a small-ball minded GM will be Theo's replacement.

BINGO, BINGO, sushi has BINGO! This is exactly right. A GM change won't hinder this team's chances for future success as long as someone is brought in that fits into the system. IMO, the development of the farm system is an organizational philosophy, not the sole intellectual property of Theo Epstein. Bill James is still with the team, and the whole Moneyball/Billy Beane generation of young GMs were spawned by James' Baseball Abstacts. That said, there was a power struggle involved in Theo leaving, and that basically means Theo didn't want LL's intrusion into all matters baseball. Were the higher-ups pushing to win now at the cost of later? The next couple of months will provide the answer.

If you are getting aggravated by RS fans on a RS board, shame on you. If you are getting aggravated by RS fans on a NYY board, shame on them. Theo's not irreplaceable, but the timing of this sucks. I don't see a fire sale looming. Henry and Lucchino are very good businessmen, and they know that winning equals success in Boston. That said, I don't know how far they are willing to go to field a winning team. Do they spend as little as possible to shoot for 90-93 wins and a WC spot, or do they field the strongest team they can? The next few months will be very telling on that regard, especially the Manny/Wells trade requests. If they ship them off with little in return and are inactive in the FA/trade market, that would signal to me that they are interested in playing cheap youngsters and lining their pockets. If they drive hard bargains and obtain some young talent, then they are still interested in building a powerhouse for the future.

Getting Santana and Kotchman would be great, but with the money involved we will, more than likely, have to relieve them of one big contract in addition to the youngsters. Erstad is only signed through 2006, so I'd take a year of GG level defense at 1B. A better proposal for the Angels, IMO, is to push for Kendry Morales. He's not quite ready, so the Angels will be reluctant to deal Kotchman and Erstad, leaving a hole in their infield. Kendry/Santana/Erstad for Manny? Manny's production will be missed, but that is true of any deal proposed thus far. This is another trade that makes the post-2007 team look very good.

True about the BP in Arizona. We could really use a corner IF/OF type of guy though, and pitching is where our farm system is deepest. MDC + PTBNL for Tracy? Who knows. Byrnes will definitely have some favorites from our system since he knows it so well.

This would hurt the 2006 chances of a division title but would improve the future team (2007 and beyond) a lot. Milledge is ready for AAA this year, and if he handles the pitching at that level, then he'd be getting his first MLB ABs during a mid-season cup of coffee or in Sept. But, beyond this year, he's got the tools to become an excellent MLB outfielder. Heilman would be a good addition to the 2006 roster. He'll be 27 next year, throws a mid-90's FB, and a very good change up. He worked mainly out of the BP for the Mets this year, but he was a starter without a rotation spot. Look at the peripherals: 8.83 K/9, 2.86 K/BB, 1.15 WHIP. He posted a 132 ERA+, his first above league average season, and tossed a 1-hit SO this season. If the FO is looking for the best combination of young talent to make the team very strong post-2007, then I doubt they'll see anything better than this offered for Manny. If that is the direction they want to take, this looks like a good deal. I just don't know if the media or fans will accept brief retooling phase. Personally, I kind of like the idea of sacraficing a year or two to build a solid young squad that can go on a 5-7 year period of domination once they gel together. Manny's one of the best hitters I've ever watched, and part of me doesn't want to see him go, but all good things must come to an end. Of course, this is all irrelevant if the whole thing is just more media speculation.

And I think Chris Paul will outplay Josh Paul in every facet of the game.

Classic spineless politician behavior. First they are too cowardly to make a decision, so they put the decision in the voters' hands by means of a ballot initiative. Then, regardless of their complete lack of a controlling interest, they try and force their agenda anyway.

He got the shaft. Injuries killed the Dodgers this year. He had some hype surrounding him as a Beane protege out of Oakland, so he should find work. If the Phils or Rays don't snatch him up as a GM, I think Theo, once his contract is settled, should offer him the assistant position vacated by Byrnes. He's a moneyball guy, so he'd fit right in.

This belongs in the "Theo Contract...." thread as it is just more unofficial speculation. Please start a "Theo to Stay" thread only when we know he is staying for sure.

Actually, Billy Wagner is better. Wagner: 0.836 WHIP, 10.08 K/9, 4.35 K/BB, 300 ERA+, 0.0 BQR Ryan: 1.138 WHIP, 12.80 K/9, 3.85 K/BB, 170 ERA+, 1.5 BQR Ryan had a better K-rate and BQR (it was a very small sample though, 20 bequeathed runners for Ryan and 14 for Wagner), but Wagner killed him in WHIP and ERA+. I don't know where you got the idea his preference is to go to the Yankees. His comments to the media were that he would like to be a part of the rivalry and be on a competitive team, thus he could "see himself playing for New York". That is miles from "I want to play in New York". Besides, FAs every year try and grease the wheels of the revenue machine by mentioning NY (and sometimes Boston) just to drive the price up. He could go anywhere.