ORS

I wouldn't say that last year's HR total was out of line with normal fluctuation. The AL & NL saw a .08 and .09 less HR/G repsectively. Go to baseball-reference and you'll see this isn't a significant difference compared to changes from other years.

There was a report (sorry, no link) about Lowell having a contact lens problem last season. It's kind of tough to hit the ball when you can't see it too well. A quarter of an inch here or a quarter of an inch there and the ball is a weak grounder or a pop-up instead of a stung line drive. Regarding the steroid speculation, since you are new I'll put in my $.02 (most of the regs know my stance). Steroids don't turn a power switch on/off. Suppose Lowell did use them pre-2005, but stopped when the testing was about to begin. Do you honestly think that would weaken him to the point of not being able to hit the ball out of the park? I spent a considerable amount of time in the gym when I was in the Marines, and I even used androstenedione when it was still legal. I also had a couple of friends that used illegal steroids. Let me tell you, from my experience, the only time anyone suffered from significant drops in strength was when they completely stopped working out. Stopping the "juice" just slowed the rapid growth. Lowell's statistical dropoff agrees with his claim that he struggled seeing the ball last year. He's said that he has resolved the problem and started working with his old hitting coach 3 days after the season ended. Yeah, I know Pedro's most frequent offseason claim was that his arm "felt like it did in 2000", so I'll reserve judgement until I see him play. That said, I think it's a bit pessimistic to call him cooked at this point.

The Dodgers just got Furcal. The Cubs were interested, but he went west with Billy Baseball.

Which would lead to the last, and final, step, paying them for some "samples" and heading to the lab.

Dan Szymborski has updated his ZiPS numbers for Crisp now that he'll be playing in Fenway. .321/.370/.466/.836, 14 HR, 19 SB I'm skeptical of him reaching those numbers in his 1st year with Boston, but I'll be happier than a pig in s*** if he does. Dan's article at BaseballThinkFactory.com

I don't think those predicitons are overly optimistic. Regarding his comeback. I'd be wiling to bet that PECOTA is just a set of standarized equations, and all they do is plug in the data. This means that there isn't a place for any speculated rebound. If last years numbers are down, then the projection will be down. Taking that into mind, I wouldn't put too much weight on Schilling's projection because both his inning total and effectiveness were affected by his injury. ST will give us a better idea of what to expect from Curt than any statistical formula will.

I would imagine PECOTA only has him throwing 100 innings because it probably uses a weighting system for previous years stats. Under a weighting sysem, Curt's 93 IP last year will have the largest impact on his '06 projection. The fact that he is one year older and has an injury history - look at his IPs each year in his career, very inconsistent - probably affect the outcome as well.

I've never figured that one out. Perhaps someone here could enlighten us.

Another SoSHism: TCM - Clemens (Texas Con-Man) Some of you Yankee fans probably appreciate that one a little.

I have 1-7, 9-8, 8-0 Pitt. Not bad, but I think I have absolutely no shot at the first quarter.

I wasn't clear enough, sorry. What I meant was that an archived article would detail the context of the values, which is what you are looking for. ZiPS and James both project for the MLB level, I'm not sure about PECOTA.

Since PECOTA is a BP projection system, you should be able to find articles about what the values mean in their archives. I'm not too familiar with PECOTA since I don't subscribe there. Most of the BP stuff I refer to is the free stuff on the DT cards and in the statistical reports.

I like Dom Perignon champagne, but I don't like the price you have to pay to drink it. I feel the same way about Coco Crisp. Elsrbueno, I peaked around a few of the usual sites (BP, BR, THT), and I'm sorry to say that no defensive stats paint a favorable picture of Crisp as a CF. That said, pretty much every defensive statistical system is full of holes and cannot be taken at face value. They give you an idea, but they don't tell the whole story. The Sox have control of him for 4 years, and it would surprise me very much if he was much worse than Damon will be for the next 4 years. So we got that going for us......which is nice. [/carl spangler]

If you agree with my post, then Schilling's hypocrisy claim doesn't pertain to you. He isn't calling all Sox fans hypocrites, just the ones that fit into the category I mentioned.

I think Cutler's hype has a lot to do with the fact that NFL scouts are more interested in tools than MLB scouts. In baseball, pitcher and hitter individual rate stats are very relevant because it is a one on one competition between the two, so a non-toolsy prospect who has good stats isn't overlooked. Whereas in football, there 10 other offensive players and 11 defensive players that have an affect on the stats of the individual, so someone with good stats/bad tools on a good team won't get full credit for their performance.

I read it. It's just a compilation of his Sox related articles from the Pedro trade through the WS with sidenotes about his frame of mind and background information.

Those are mostly SoSHisms. Here's some more: G38 - Curt Schilling (his username there is Gehrig38) SG33 - Bill Simmons (his username is SportsGuy33) Saturn - Bronson Arroyo (Schilling said he had "Saturn sized balls" in the '04 playoffs)

Wow, I can't believe the Pads non-tendered this guy. I wonder if something is wrong with him physically. His MiLB rates look pretty good. 10.30 K/9, 4.24 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9, 8.31 H/9 If he can limit the free passes, he should be a better LOOGY option than DiNardo, since Lenny has reverse splits against lefties. Breslow's MiLB Stats @ TheBaseballCube.com

If it is smart business/baseball sense when the FO DFA's non-performers, then it is smart business/baseball sense when players leave for more money. Curt is saying that it is hypocritical for fans to say JD has no loyalty while applauding the FO for releasing Bellhorn, and he's right. I thought this was true for about 5 minutes, then I realized it was probably the FO's attempt to shift some blame from their business/baseball decision (and I agree with them not signing him). If Damon, via Boras, was just interested in the money, which it seems pretty apparent that he was, then why not give the home team a chance to match/beat the offer? Signing with the Yankees w/o using their price to bring the Sox offer up just doesn't fit into the equation.

Baseball-Reference.com has a nice little stat called OPS+, which compares the players OPS to the league-adjusted OPS for each season played. An OPS+ of 100 is league average. Above average is over 100; below average is less than 100. So, this stat does exactly all the things you claim would be fair to assess players from different eras. Franco has some very nice offensive seasons in his career, with 5 of them over 120 OPS+. His career OPS+ is 112; Youk's is 103 after 2 years, with a 115 last year. I agree with you. If Youk can go on a stretch where he goes 137, 121, 146, 95 (injury shortened season), 118, 137, 122 like Franco did from '89 to '96, then he surpass anyone's expectations of him right now.

Welcome BH members. It seems your exodus has created a big splash in our small pond. Don't worry, the water will settle, I just hope that your reception hasn't scared any of you off because it's always nice to get some fresh perspective (as long as it agrees with TOS). Here's a little about me. I'm Keith, a student of Electrical Engineering (at UCF) and veteran of the USMC (teuffelhunden!). I have 1.5 kids (I'm not bullshitting you, my wife is 6 months pregnant), no dogs, and a love affair with baseball. I see lots of VA in the member locations; I was born and raised in Fairfax County. Go Sox!

The Angels got .703/.694 OPS from 1B/3B last year. Youk & Lowell should have no problem surpassing that.

I'm not arguing that Gonzalez isn't a better option than Cora. Gonzalez cerainly has more upside at the plate, and I do think he has better range and a better arm for SS. Since they have saved some coin by dumping Rent and not signing Damon, I think the $10M/2yrs. Gonzalez wants is a cost they could and should incur. My only point was that OC is much more sure-handed in the field.

FWIW, Cabrera is much better with the leather than Alex Gonzalez. Last year OC's Rate was 105, right in ine with his career 106 Rate as a SS, while Gonzalez had a 95 Rate, very close to his career 94 Rate as a SS. OC is capable of a super-stellar year too; his peak Rate year was 2001 when he posted a 121. Gonzalez's best year was 2002 when he put up a 103 Rate. The comparison isn't even close.

No, I don't think Boone is significantly better than Stern. It's no stretch to think Stern could put up a .250/.310/.390 line. I know that isn't great, but it would be good for roughly a 95 OPS+ (Boone's career OPS+ is 96). Plus, Stern plays better defense at a more important defensive position. Boone sucks, Cleveland knows it, but they got greedy thinking Boston is desperate for a CF. The deal on the table was a very good one for them; they should have just taken it.