ORS

Replacement is considered to be what you would expect from the typical bench player or minor leaguer coming to fill in if the player got hurt, but they don't look at rosters to establish replacement level; it is the same for every player. RARP (runs above replacement player) is calculated by taking the players EqA (equivalent average - a combination of H, TB, BB, IBB, HBP, SB, CS, TPA) and converting it to EqR (equivalent runs - similar to runs created metrics). Then they take the league average EqA, convert it to EqR, and then multiply that by .73. This is the replacement level. By that calculation, it shows that replacement level is about 73% of league average on the offensive side of the equation. I haven't found any details about the defensive side, but that should give you an idea of what replacement level means.

WARP is Wins Above Replacement Player. I do not know how it is calculated, but it is an all inclusive stat that measures a players offensive and defensive runs contribution and turns them into wins based on the number of runs per win for the team they played on. 3-2-1 WARP is a way of weighting a players stats over the last three years. (3*last year + 2*the year before + 1*3 years ago)/6 WARP is dependent on the total number of outs made by the player that year. So, even when Loretta's heaviest weighted year was the year he played the least, he still kicks Renteria's ass in average WARP over the last three years.

I agree about FP, it is pretty worthless. I only included it to demonstrate the point that when 7 out of 7 defensive stats show that a player is below average, then it is safe to assume he is below average, despite what your eyes tell you.

Using 3-2-1 WARP (WARP is dependent on games played) over the last 3 years, Loretta is 3.31 wins better than Renteria, and that includes an inury year (last year) for Loretta.

BABIP is the stat that pitchers/hitters have the least control over. It fluctuates drastically from year to year for both. Once a player has a sample size large enough to establish a career average, it generally fluctuates .020 higher or lower. It is one of the reasons that I feel Lowell can bounce back. His career average is .285, but he only had a .253 last year. They try and hit 'em where they ain't, but you are talking about fractions of inches at the point of contact that can have a huge affect on where the ball ends up.

Recent evidence? As in, stats accumulated while playing hurt. Yeah, those are certainly valid. Nice try.

He also had a .240 BABIP, whereas his road average while in Colorado was .280. His 2.85 ERA in NY becomes 4.57 when you adjust for his career average. Oh that's right, career averages mean nothing to you. Oh well, we'll see how that ERA holds up when it regresses to the norm, and it always does.

Son? I'm likely older than you are. Delusions? HA! At least my analysis recognizes the fact that career averages are relevant. delusion: A false belief strongly held in spite of invalidating evidence. In spite of career averages, you continue to hold your false belief. Now who's being delusional?

This is funny coming from you. You have demonstrated this very quality countless times in your analysis* of current Sox and Yankee players by ignorantly assuming that last year's stats are absolute while ignoring career averages. Loretta, Lowell, Schilling, et al are going to suck because they had a rough year last year despite their career norms, while Cano, Chacon, and Wang are clearly stars because they played well last year despite their performances being completely above and beyond their career averages (for Wang and Cano it is their MiLB stats adjusted for MLE). * Calling what you have done "analysis" is a gift on my part; you should thank me.

Wow, that is one huge contradiction. Call me crazy, but I'll take the guy that produces more as a #2 hitter than the guy that "fits the role" better (whatever the f*** that means) 10 times out of 10.

Career Rate Stats Renteria: .288/.345/.399/.743, 61 AB/HR, 7.2 AB/K, 34.9 AB/GIDP Loretta: .301/.365/.408/.773, 68 AB/HR, 9.5 AB/K, 38.5 AB/GIDP I fail to see how ER kills Loretta. It takes him 7 less ABs to hit a tater, that's it. Comparable SLG, but Loretta is better at making contact, hits for a higher average, and gets on base at a higher rate while hitting into less DPs. Care to rephrase?

And the lightning in a bottle the Yankees lucked into with Chacon and Small wasn't better than what could be expected out of a healthy Pavano, Wright, and Brown? Please, if anything those injuries helped their cause when you consider how those two pitched down the stretch.

Turnovers uncharacteristic of Plummer? I thought they were what defined him. Say what you want about how he played this year, his performance against Pittsburg was very characteristic of what he has done in his 9 years in the league. Some dogs never get rid of their spots.

And you are some genious for calling him "elite"?

Easy killer, you might want to drink a little less of that Yankee cool-aid. A .320 OBP and a weak glove do not get you considered as elite.

Players are rated as top 1/3, middle 1/3, lower 1/3 by the Elias Rating Bureau every year. Those in the top 1/3 that are FAs are called type-A, middle type-B, lower type-C. When a team signs a type-A FA, they give their 1st round pick (unless it is a top-15 pick, those are protected and they give up the 2nd round pick) to the team that lost the player. The team that lost the player also gets a supplemental pick for the lost player. The type-A supplemental round is between the 1st and 2nd round. Type-B gets a 2nd round pick and 2nd/3rd round supplemental pick. For this draft compensation to occur, the team that loses the player must offer that player arbitration before Nov. 15. If they don't offer arbitration, they get no draft compensation if the player signs elsewhere, and they lose the right to sign the player until May 1 of the following year. That was as quick and easy as I could make it.

I'll think more of Cano if he's able to approach .330 OBP with league average BABIP. He exceeded league average BABIP by .023 points last year. Adjusted for league average on balls in play, he went .277/.299/.439/.738.

No defensive metric is perfect, nor will one ever be, because every metric relies on an observers judgement. Was that an error or a bad hop? Should the 1B have made that catch or was it a wild throw? That said, if 3 or 4 metrics all paint the same picture, then it's pretty safe to assume that the picture is pretty valid, and statistics aren't biased like people's memories are. Take Jeter for example. Those of you that watch him everyday are influenced by the spectacular, and I will give Cap'n Intagibles credit for being able to make the spectacular play. Every time he does the Statue of Liberty throw from deep in the hole, or dives into the stands, or ends up in death valley on a pop up, everyone goes "Wow, he's incredible in the field" and they forget the 2/3 errors he makes the same week. Rate, Rate2, FRAA/R, ZR, UZR, RF, and FP have him substantially below league average for his career. No, those stats aren't perfect, and they are influenced by who is on the field next to you. Jeter's two best statistical years, the last two, were when ARod was scooping up balls next to him.

Leaving Fenway will have an affect too. Look at his career numbers at Fenway vs. all other parks: Fenway: .311/.387/.438/.825 All other parks: .284/.344/.430/.774

From Boston.com With 2 years of arby left, they aren't rushing into anything. If he dominates, they'll try and buyout that last year and extend him. If injures slow him down, they'll use that last arby year. If he doesn't impress over the next two years, then they'll likely let him walk.

He's got 4.030 years of MLB service, meaning he will have just over 5 at the end of this year. You need over 6 to become a FA, so I'm pretty sure he'll be under the Sox control for 2007. My source was mlb4u.com, and they list his service time as 3.030 years, but that figure was for before 2005. Source

Color me unimpressed with giving up any picks for Farnsworth. His K/9, BB/9, H/9 and WHIP are very similar to Seanez's, but Rudy gives up the long ball to a tune of .44 less per 9 innings. Sure, Farnsworth is younger, but Rudy came for less money and a shorter contract meaning the team that signed him isn't stuck paying him $5.67M for the next three years if he can't hack it in the AL east, and he didn't cost any picks. The Damon signing was a good one for the Yankees. They have next to nothing in the cupboard so trading for a CF would have totally depleted it, whereas the Sox farm is fairly well stocked so giving up some prospects for Crisp doesn't hurt as much. Plus, when Damon's fielding goes into decline at the end of his contract, and that is very likely to happen, he can be moved into the expansive LF at Yankee stadium. The opposite is true of Fenway, and Damon doesn't have enough arm to man RF or enough stick to justify playing LF in Fenway.

FWIW, the Sox don't only take collegians with their high draft picks. They had 6 picks in the first 2 rounds last year. With the first 4 they took college players, but the next two were high ceiling HS players Michael Bowden and Jonathan Egan. Drafting ready collegiate players is part of the Sox drafting strategy, but not the only part.

Where do I say it's bad? Hell, I even say it's an improvement, but it is a very marginal one. I lean toward this aspect of Cashman's offseason as being a non-issue. Moving up a few spots, while it is an improvement, it certainly isn't worth the fellating he got in the offseason review. That has been my point all along, and I have said nothing contrary to it. I guess I'd rather be a homer than a couple of idiots who can't read and comprehend.

Moved up a few spots? Sure. MLB drafting is a process of attrition though. Not all early round picks pan out, so it is better to have more of them than it is to just move up a few spots. I'd say his help to the Yankee draft this year was extremely marginal. I guess knowing this is part of the process makes me a "homer" though? Whatever.