ORS

Looks like the Net's made a game of it for about 18 minutes, but the C's pulled away before the half. I've been following on Gamecast (no coverage here). Denver was getting handled in the first half against Indy. I think they gave up 70, but pulled it out. Impressive win.

If the 'Hawks beat two top-5 BCS teams, Mizzou and Oklahoma in the Big-12 Championship, I think they'll get in over a 1-loss team.

I picked this one in my weekly pool. To be fair, I picked PSU and Wisc to beat them too. I've thought OSU has been overrated all year. I'm all about the schools that aren't regularly there. Go Jayhawks!

They certainly lost value, but at what cost? Has the value lost and assigned to Beckett resulted in avoidance of expense to fill in the gaps where the farm isn't producing? It's only been a year, but the answer is a pretty clear "No" with the big offseason last year. They got all three big FAs they targeted, rightly or wrongly, last year. That value starts to carry weight only when it is preventing future moves, IMO. We haven't seen that yet, so that's why I don't think it's particularly relevant to this consideration.

I think the inclusion of performance at cost, $/Marginal Runs, has no place in this discussion. The trade doesn't occur if the teams are capable of absorbing equitable expense for performance, so in as much, if we are going to do it, we ought to at least make an adjustment for that. Moving on from that, I think this is a win-win trade. Both got out of the trade what they were looking to get out of it. Trying to assign "winner" or "loser" status is irrelevant, IMO, because I'd bet my mortage that both teams do it again if offered. For those that are gleefully rubbing it in 700's face that the kids he wanted to trade have performed, I don't get it. How is his idea to trade for Willis any different than getting Beckett?

Peavy just won the pitching triple crown in the NL. And you wouldn't want to trade a .718 OPS CF, who was one of the worst CF in baseball according to the Fielding Bible and ought to move to a corner, for him. Yet Peavy is being overvalued? Might want to think about that one. Melky stinks, and Hughes has a s*** load of improving to do before he approaches a pitching triple crown. Overvalued? That's rich.

Depends on how arbitration rewards are considered? If it's considered an extension of the current contract, then they can trade him whenever they want. If it's considered a new contract, they can still trade him prior to that deadline, it would just require his approval. Since RS said trade him to a club "looking for a closer", and Bora$ has stated Gagne is looking to close, then there's no reason he wouldn't approve the move.

There's a chance, but I think it's reduced for one reason. Boras just took a big hit in the PR department with the timing of ARod's opt out. I mean a huge hit. If he accepts arb to a situation where he undoubtedly won't be doing what he's stating his client wants to do, that's fuel on the fire. I think it's worth the risk now.

Yeah, but Jeter's numbers are more in line with his career stats, ARod's fall short of his career baseline. Of course, Jeter's had almost a full season's worth of stats, and I suspect given similar opportunities, ARod's would be closer to career levels.

How many change ups does Roy Munson Wang throw a game? Three, maybe 4? And what does a spot in the Sox rotation (something there will be after this year with Schilling and Wake likely gone) have to do with his trade value as a starter? More thoughtless spew.

Think it's a ploy? I'd considered that, but he's having a bad offseason in terms of PR. Boras may want to be a little more honest than usual this winter.

More Boras bulla-bulla. He's not closing anywhere, not with the way he closed the year here. I'd offer him arb now, though.

More MFYF nonsense (slow day at work): Apparently, there was a meeting yesterday between NY and SD at the GM meetings. The topic of Peavy for Hughes & Melky came up and was quickly discarded. The prevailing sentiment is that Cashman must have immediately rejected the offer because getting a triple crown pitcher is not enough phor that pitcher and a phourth OF.

Nomaas is trying to concoct a Matsui for Kemp trade, stating the Yankees can take advantage of Torre's sentimentalities for "his guys". The hope and despair is so thick in Yankeefandom that you need a machete to cut a path through it.

Crisp actually moves higher up that list if you use FRAR. IMO, if you are using VORP, you should use FRAR so that both offense and defense are relative to replacement level. As done now, you are on different scales. The main reason I don't see this getting done is because these things aren't done in a vaccum. The public perception is they traded Tex for Saltalamacchia. The public perception will be that they traded Saltalamacchia for Crisp. A=B, B=C, therefore A=C, and for a club with any concern about public perception of how they are running things, I don't see a Tex for Crisp trade happening, which is what this will be viewed as. While it's important to do what's best for the club without regard to public perception, you can't ignore it because that perception holds the money they are after.

I think Saturday against NJ looks like an interesting match-up too. The Net's aren't elite, but they look good early.

Well, we know one thing for certain, god is not a Wildcats FAN!

For all the bad press AI gets, the guy is fearless and has no quit in him. He plays hard from whistle to whistle, and he sacrafices his 6 foot nothing, hundred and change body the whole time. The C's look really impressive. I can't wait to see them go up against the elite from the West.

Short arsenal? He throws sinker, slider, change. Just like your ultra-valuable CMW. You know, the guy who all we hear about is, "Bowling ball, bowling ball, purple monkey dishwasher."

I wouldn't call him a hypocrite. Tampering with people under contract is unethical, but it does not result in a competitive advantage on the field. Draft picks are now standard tax in dealing with a coach under contract (same level position - no penalty if it results in promotion). One of the things I find funny is the fact that he wasn't that critical early in the season right when it happened. I can't remember the exact quote, but paraphrased he essentially said that was common practice. Now that some of his legacy is being threatened, he's singing a different tune. He's such a phony.

Here's mine... PG - Chris Paul (love the 21 dimes last night) SG - Rip SF - R Jefferson PF - Boozer C - Amare BN - Al Jefferson, Marvin Williams, Stackhouse, Jason Williams, Shaq, little Wilkins, Antoine Wright, Kenyon Martin It's Yahoo, and you play 10 - sit 3 each night. I'm light on deep threats, but should have solid numbers out of the frontline all year once Martin is up to speed and playing full-time. His energy as a big man is excellent, and that will mean easy buckets in transition on that team, kind of like he did in NJ.

Why can't it? Based on historical performance we know the context independent value of a single through linear weighting. With observational data, we know how many extra hits or bases a fielder gives up relative to average. Assign the linear weight value to the marginal outcomes, and voila, you have a very good idea of relative performance. Remember, the runs created formulas, be it RC or EqR or etc, have very high correlations to runs scored. The Linear Weights model has the highest correlation. The input variables are the offensive counting stats (1B, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, CS, GIDP, etc) and the output is runs. With each season, you get 30 equations that look like this.... 1B + 2B + 3B + HR + BB + HBP + SB + CS + K + OUT + GIDP + SF + SH = R ...one for each team. With 13 variables and 30 equations, you can find the linear value of each variable. To get even closer values, you can average the results over a period of years. So, while you are right, it is just an approximation, it's got a pretty small error factor due to the multitude of historical data that can be used to create the model. EDIT: Where I think the models fail is in the adjustments for Fenway. JHB noted earlier that Manny is just as bad by these metrics on the road as he is at Fenway. That, to me, suggests there is a problem with the models because of two things. One, his problem is limited range, which is greatly reduced at Fenway. Two, everyone acknowledges he is very adept at playing the monster. His numbers should be better at Fenway. I trust his road numbers for what they are because those parks are normally sized and have normal wall types (for the most part).

GG's are voted on by the managers, but that doesn't make them more legit. Jeter won 3 in a row, Tek won one, Palmiero, etc, etc. Dibble and Kennedy were talking about it on XM yesterday, and the practice of rewarding players for careers and having "paid their dues" is commonplace. Hence, Tulo didn't win it over JRoll despite deserving it because he hasn't paid his dues.

What about the chemistry between Sunshine and Gary? Is that the kind of purple-lipped smoochery this team needs?

I don't think there was any direct conspiracy, but I'd bet money they were prepped before the game and the topics of the prep were the bad calls we saw. Polian has griped for years about PI, and Moss has a bit of a rep as someone who creates space for himself. I think it's perfectly reasonable to think this new crew was told to keep an eye on these things as part of their preparatory brief. And that prep planted a seed that became a quick trigger finger on the flag.