ORS
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Everything posted by ORS
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WVU comes up small again in what wasn't even a big game. They were favored by 4 TDs. Rodriguez is pretty bad when the chips are down.
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Mike sucks. He should have watched vid of himself and realized his limp wristed throws had no chance. He just cost himself 25 G's.
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Good point about the two 3-OT losses. What a f***ed up season. Not that I think it hasn't been exciting, but if they both lose, there will be about 7 teams with a legit case to be there with Ohio St, and a team has a chance to go undefeated in a year when the Nat Champ will likely have 2 losses. f***ed.
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So if Mizzou and WVU both go down, who plays the completely overrated Buckeyes? I'd love to see Oklahoma and LSU go at it, but that won't happen, and I think the nod would go to the Sooners.
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I overreacted and flew off the handle. Upthread in your post it seemed as if you were saying only those opposed to including Ellsbury were "thinking" about the issue. My apologies. I didn't consider the other two players because there are only 9 lineup slots and 5 rotation slots. Unused talent won't be contributing, and those two are unlikely to contribute in the immediate future (barring injury), unless Lugo is moved with some financial backing, which antithetical to the point you are espousing. I still think the original offer is strong, but as you can tell, I think the replacement of Crisp with Ellsbury is marginal enough to not be a sticking point.
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I'm well aware of the fact that PECOTA is the most reliable system out there. I'm also aware of the fact that some of the comps and predictions I've seen for performance make it tough to assign any confidence to anything it tells me. Sure, we differ. Tell you what, if by chance we ever meet, I'll buy you a beer if Melky ever makes an All-Star game.
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I guess that minor parallel gives you a minor degree of vindication. I don't know what has more predictive value ulitmately, only what I've seen from comp players lists and the amount of chuckles they have initiated. I certainly feel taking notice of Melky's lack of progression, which you conveniently ignored, and observation of same with my eyes tells me more than coincidental statistical similarity.
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But he's done nothing in terms of progression in a two year time frame. Zero, zip, zilch. His list of B-R comps only shows three HOF'ers, with two playing in the deadball era up to the age 22. Whoopidedoo. More importantly, those comps are fun to look at, but their predictive value is very limited. Had I faith in them, I'd be waiting for Dustin Pedroia to turn into Gary Sheffield at some point.
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I'm not seeing it. .273/.327/.391 over a full year in '07 .280/.360/.391 in his big sample in '06 .275/.322/.411 in his big sample in '05 at AA .288/.341/.438 in '04 at A+ He's once shown the type of IsoD you predict. This is typically not a skill one learns. Those with patience and pitch recognition show it early. He's played two full seasons worth of ball at the ultimate level and shown little to no progression. He is what he is, IMO. While he will ultimately develop more power than Ellsbury, the rest of his game will lag behind, and his body type will necessitate a move to corner without possessing the bat to be of significant value there. .
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An attitude will hold him back from greatness? Rubbish. He'll be great if he has the talent to be great and attitude will have no bearing on that talent. Also, Bradley's latest outburst is acknowledged by all to have been instigated by the umpire he was arguing with. While Bradley may be a hot head, an umpire should never escalate the situation. Their job is to remain emotionally detached from the game.
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Turning things around? What does he have to turn around? He put up a .780 OPS as a 22 y/o adjusting to the highest level with infrequent playing time last year.
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I've got to ask, how in the world did you come to this conclusion about Milledge? I'll be shocked if you watched him play regularly, and any kind of performance analysis of his MiLB play must lead to a conclusion of future stardom. And, FWIW, if Milton Bradley could stay healthy and on the field, he'd be one of the elite OF's in the game. His performance is constantly being interupted and dragged down by nagging injury.
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Charisma? Stop, you had me at "Hello", tear.
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Here's the thing, though. The difference btw a 4.75 and 6.3 RC/G is about 25-30 runs depending on playing time. Let's call it 30 for your sake. A reasonable prediction for Lester would be about league average at a 4.50 ERA. Over 180 IP, that's 90 runs, and it's a wash if Santana pitches to a 3.33. Both numbers are probably high, but it shows the value gained is easily erased on the pitching end. But that's not it. Santana typically pitches about 220 IP, so you need to fill the void with more league average or worse pitching, which tips the scale in favor having Santana and Crisp over Ellsbury and Lester. Also, keep in mind, that James predictions are blind to situation. It's a plug and play formula. I'm much more confident that Crisp can improve and return to a level he's previously hit at than I am that Ellsbury can come up and be a run producer like Jeter is for a whole season.
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Sure, I think Crisp contributed as much to the team as Manny did last year, while being mindful of the fact that Manny spent some time on the shelf and had his worst year ever by quite a bit.
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So you hear voices? Wouldn't SoSH be a more comfortable fit, what with the whole Son of Sam connection?
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Example1, what type of line do you see Crisp and Ellsbury putting up next year?
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I see this sentiment frequently. Please don't mix what's valuable in a 5x5 fantasy league with what's valuable in real baseball. Don't get me wrong, the things valuable in fantasy ball are valuable in real ball as well, but they aren't the whole story.
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If I'm the Twins, I absolutely wait until he makes his decision. It will be a big determinant in their leverage in trade negotiations.
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How about the other two? Surely, you must have an explanation for why Masterson was better than them at the same level yet must still project only as a reliever.
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Sure, I can read. Can you think for yourself, or are all of your opinions on the viability of a player just regurgitated garbage from two years ago, because that is what's driving the Masterson as a reliever sentiment? I'd rather look into it myself. Here's what I found. Masterson had better peripheral numbers than CMW in the EL at 2 years younger age. Carmona had three tours of the EL, with his last at age 21, one year younger than Masterson, but he still never bested him in rate stat performance. Lowe pitched in AA in the SL, never bettered Master's rates. So, what I find to be supporting my assertion that little analysis and a lot of regurgitation is being done is the fact that the guy who is a notch below them all as a comp is outperforming them at similar or younger ages with a similar pitching profile. Enjoy the cud.
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Here's the problem with Yankee fans and Tabata, and it's in tune with something I mentioned earlier. A couple of years ago, when he had a very good rookie ball showing, some scout quipped that Tabata reminded him of a "young Manny Ramirez". This quote, like the notion that Masterson must and can only be considered a future reliever, will not die. Well, this season is put up or STFU time for the Tabata contingent. He will be 19 next year. Manny was 19 in his first season of pro ball and put up a .326/.426/.679 line with 19 bombs in 215 ABs. Tabata will have to be leaps and bounds better than the .300/.371/.392 hitter with 5 dingers in 411 ABs he was last year to get close to that. Yet, the quote and projection won't die, even if he falls very short of it, which is what I think will happen.