ORS

I will be talking to myself in this thread all game. Vinny misses with the Nance jinx.

Rut roh, Reorge. Another negative and they push them out of Vinatieri range.

Run D looks weak. They are standing still looking to contain and Addai is running a slalom course.

They'll get the challenge, but how do two refs looking up the line from opposite angles miss that?

Are you kidding me? 37-0 and 2 defensive scores. Thanks for sucking harder than a $10 crack whore, Denver.

Don't see it. There are very few questions about this... [table]Age|AB|HR|BA|OBP|SLG 20|314|12|.268|.325|.468 21|603|33|.294|.366|.512 22|613|33|.323|.385|.561 23|576|26|.339|.430|.568 24|588|34|.320|.401|.565[/table] There's really only one question, and it's about his work ethic with his weight gain from 20-24. There's two ways to approach it. Buy now or wait a year. He'll put up a monster year either way, but if he comes into camp fit, there will be no questions, and this year's steep price will become astronomical. The time to act is now, IMO.

Super bowl 41-1/2 happens today. First time in NFL history we have two undefeateds facing off with records of 7-0 or better. It seems like everyweek there is the "Game of the Year" being played, but this one is as big as it gets, so it needs a game thread. Predictions? I say Pats 41-20 in a laugher. Go.

No, he's 6/6.8 the player. He's just doing it with his glove at a more premium defensive position now.

No, you pulled that from your usual idea rectory (pun intended).

Were they out of cadavers and needed a volunteer the day they taught the lobotomy procedure? Regressed in every facet? He actually upped his EqA by .007 last year over 2006, and his defense did a complete 180. He was 31 runs better on defense this year. You know, in most definitions of the word, regression means performance gets worse, not better. He was 6 WARP player last year, and about 5 of it was defense, which is unlikely to regress in the immediate future, ie the next 2 years. At $5M, he's a total bargain. For reference, here are the WARP totals for the upcoming FA class. Rowand - 7.7 Hunter - 5.9 Jones - 4.6 Lofton - 3.1 Patterson - 1.2 Cameron - 5.0 (25 game suspension to start the year) Erstad - -0.3 (WARP does not consider grit) There are others, Curtis Pride, Jeff Davanon, Brady Clark, but it's not worth the trouble to prove my point. Nobody worth looking at on that list will play for less than $10M per, except maybe Patterson if you think he may get a little better. Crisp has more value than people think right now. Hell, if we didn't have Ellsbury, I'd have no problem keeping him with that defense. And, it's not like he hasn't shown the ability to hit better in the past. A little spike in his offense, plus being utilized as a runner more often in the NL, and he's got a shot at a 7.5+ WARP season next year, which is excellent.

I don't think anyone is suggesting he isn't bad, even really bad. There's a tradeoff with Manny that we are all very familiar with. I don't think we've hit the break-even point yet.

UZR and PMR are probably the best two systems because they account for batted ball types and how hard the ball was hit. Of course, neither are made public, so they do us little good. I know MGL shares UZR occaissionally, so you might run into a UZR spreadsheet somewhere out there, but I'm not fanatical about cutting edge stats enough to hunt them down. I think RZR is useful, but I think it could use tweaking for park factors. FRAA is starting to have a really good correlation to UZR. The last few UZR spreadsheets I've seen were in strong agreement with FRAA (note: I did not check every player, this is just by my recollection). I'd like to see range quantified by how far and how fast people are actually moving to make plays. We've got the technology to do it. A micro transmitter in the button on top of the cap, triangulating antenae, and an on/off button for the moment of contact to the moment of the ball hitting leather while the time is recorded. We'd get a clear picture of the limits of one's range based on their max distance plays in relation to the time elapsed. Someone with the means to get this done and more passion to approach MLB about it must be out there. Only a matter of time.

Let's be clear here, Burrell is the next to last "qualified" LF. Plenty of Millar, Hinske, Johnny Gomes types play a good amount of games in LF without becoming "qualified". I think you play to your park. Fenway allows a slugging slug in LF like no park in the game, and they have the spot filled with the best slugger of them and the most sluggish. All is well.

RZR assigns every wall-ball to Manny's zone. It's a completely unrealistic chance. Not saying Manny isn't bad, but he's not 11% worse than Pat Burrell.

Come on. Get real. Enough of the sandy vagina-speak. Ortiz' knee does not have structural damage, just some scar tissue causing pain. He had it before the year started. The team wanted him to have it scoped last year in the offseason and he opted to play through it. Let me first say that I don't think this is even a topic that should merit serious consideration on our part because I don't see the team doing it or the player signing here. That said, any claim of the ridiculousness of the notion of playing Papi at first needs some examination by the person stating it. What's ridiculous is the notion that a 32 y/o man can't play 1B for one year without completely breaking down. He's not playing half-back for Herm Edwards for a year. Nor is he being asked to play swingman for Riley's Lakers. Keep this in perspective. We are talking about playing 1B. If he can run the bases, which he'll have to do as a DH, he can play 1B. Now, this isn't to say I think they ought to do this. The "ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy has some merit here, but let's not hyperbolize the risk. It's minimal.

Vermont, nice place. I flew into Burlington 14 months ago over Labor Day for a wedding up at Stowe. Cocktail on the plane. Beer in the car ride up the mtn. Hit the ground running at the golf course and slammed two on the first hole to catch up with my foursome. Cocktails after golf, rehersal dinner at the top of the mountain...open bar. Night caps at a bar down the road. The pancakes and syrup the morning after may have been the most important meal of my life.

I don't think there's any question he's still a .900+ OPS hitter, and I think anyone who thinks he isn't is in for a nice surprise next year. If they get ARod, no you don't pick up his options. If they don't get ARod, I think you bring Manolo back. Personally, it's more fun to root for Manny, and there's less risk as '08, '09, and '10 can be taken one year at a time.

I'll participate more in this thread this year because I am playing fantasy hoops for the first time, so I'll start paying attention to the league again. First thoughts, watched a bit of the begining of the SEA/DEN game last night, and little Wilkins can play. Denver is up and down the court all night, they might go 35 wins or better at home with that pace and the opponent not having adjusted to altitude.

This is compounded by the fact that he was so bad that I don't think they can risk offering him arbitration. He won't get a pay cut in arb, and he won't likely get what he got last year, so he'd take the arb offer, IMO. Oh well, broke some eggs to make the omelet, and the breakfast was good.

I knew that one was coming, the more impressive bit. It is for A+ and below, while the AFL is for AA and above. That's the dividing line. It's not a pitcher's league. So, perhaps my comment was a bit unfair. Jackson is in the league he should be in, but I wouldn't go streaking down Main St yet. Not for a guy who has mastered A+ and is facing pitchers who haven't yet. The only pitchers to pitch in these leagues are the guys who didn't get their work in over the year or need extra development. All I'm saying is, temper your expectations. Eric Duncan regained 15 minutes of relevance with a strong 2nd half and good AFL performance.

He's performing really well, too bad he's not in the AFL. He's in the AFL's weaker sister, the HWL.

I'm glad to see you introduced some NPV consideration into yesterday's valuation of his performance projection per PECOTA. These things aren't linear, and there's absolutely no way teams perform their valuations without this important data. So, it appears an important aspect to the valuation will be baseball's revenues growth rate. A quick down and dirty rule of 70 suggests it's at about 10% (doubled revenues from 2000 to 2007). A mere 2% shy of our goal, if we believe in PECOTA. In my estimation, no calcs just observed PECOTAs vs actual performance, PECOTA is very conservative and pessimistic. I think it overvalues the impact of age on elite players who typically outperform their PECOTA projections after age 32 or so. I think this has something to do with a large majority of the players not being elite, and the impact of age on their game fudging the age factor for those that are elite. That said, I'm also uncomfortable assuming we will see the same growth we saw over the last 7 years. It could happen, but record growth isn't usually sustainable. I, like you, think this could go either way. If they sign him, I won't complain. If they bring Lowell back, I'll be happy too, because while Lowell may have more immediate risk, I think the magnitude of total risk is much smaller.

I've got to applaud Pettitte for this decision. It's a pretty big concession for a the team to award high $$ figure player options, and the Yankees did that for him. He could certainly go out and make more, but he's got enough conscience to recognize the team that gave him that deserves some consideration in return.